Special analyst Feng Likun
【Core Tips】In previous years, this time was the green and yellow period before the new wheat was listed, and the wheat price often had a "tail" market. At present, there is only about a month left before the centralized listing of new wheat, and the reserve wheat and market surplus grain at all levels can support the amount of flour enterprises before the new grain is listed.
In previous years, April to May was a period of green and yellow before the new wheat was listed, due to the lack of surplus grain in the market, wheat prices often had a "tail" market at this stage, especially during the epidemic in the first two years, the inventory of various links of the channel was high, and the demand for grain and grain hoarding was large. After the epidemic, due to the sluggish downstream consumption, the channel inventory has been greatly reduced, especially the wheat inventory of flour enterprises has declined significantly, although there is only about a month left before the new wheat is listed, and the market surplus grain is less than the same period last year, but the reserve wheat and market surplus grain at all levels can support the amount of flour enterprises before the new grain is listed.
The new wheat is in good condition
The price of wheat fell nearly 100 yuan/ton weekly
On April 24, the incoming price of common wheat in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province (national standard second grade, the same below) was 2590 yuan/ton, Handan 2590 yuan/ton, Hengshui 2600 yuan/ton, Shandong Dezhou 2580 yuan/ton, Jinan 2600 yuan/ton, Heze 2610 yuan/ton, Henan Zhoukou 2630 yuan/ton, Xinxiang 2640 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou 2630 yuan/ton, Anhui Suzhou 2620 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Xuzhou 2630 yuan/ton, down 60~100 yuan/ton week-on-week. tons, down 90~120 yuan/ton month-on-month, down 210~300 yuan/ton year-on-year, the decline has expanded.
According to the situation report of the National Bureau of Statistics for the first quarter, the sown area of winter wheat in the first quarter remained stable, the growth was generally good, and spring plowing and spring sowing were carried out in a steady and orderly manner. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2024-2033)" predicts that in 2024, with the full implementation of a new round of 100 billion catties of grain production capacity improvement actions, the stable and safe supply capacity of grain and important agricultural products will continue to increase, and wheat output is expected to rise steadily with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% under the support of favorable policies to stabilize the area and increase yield.
There is still a month before the new season wheat is concentrated on the market, and according to the relevant departments of agricultural statistics, the overall growth of wheat for the summer harvest in 2024 is good, and if there is no unfavorable weather before the harvest, the output is expected to be bumper again. Affected by the good wheat production in the new season, the market pessimism spread, and the weekly decline in wheat prices was larger, but the decline slowed down in the past one or two days, and this round of "stampede" decline is expected to end.
Low inventory and transaction margins
Wheat prices will remain weak in the short term
On April 24, there were many unsold wheat in the main producing areas, and the local reserves (wheat) in Laiyang City, Shandong Province sold 1,418 tons of wheat in 2020 at a special auction, with a reserve price of 2580~2620 yuan/ton, all of which were unauctioned, and Hebei Wu'an Yumin Grain Purchase and Sales Co., Ltd. sold 14,670 tons of wheat in 2020 and 2021, with a reserve price of 2560~2580 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold. Judging from the individual transactions, the sales transaction price of wheat in Shandong was 2600~2620 yuan/ton, and the sales transaction price of Henan local storage was 2510 yuan/ton.
On April 24, China Grain Reserves Shandong Branch bid for the purchase of 9,830 tons of wheat in 2024, all of which were sold, with a floor price of 2,640 yuan/ton, a transaction price of 2,635~2,640 yuan/ton, and an average transaction price of 2,636.44 yuan/ton. Jiangsu Funing Local Storage will purchase 12,053 tons of wheat in 2024, all of which will be sold, with a floor price of 2,640 yuan/ton, a transaction price of 2,595~2,600 yuan/ton, and an average transaction price of 2,596 yuan/ton. The center of gravity of the transaction price of reserve wheat procurement is 2600~2640 yuan/ton, and the auction turnover rate of reserve wheat is low as a whole, mainly due to the continuous decline in the listing price of flour enterprises, the lack of market confidence, the strong bearish atmosphere, and the enthusiasm for bidding for the purchase of reserve wheat is not strong. It is expected that wheat prices will enter the consolidation stage in the short term, showing a narrow range of downward trend.
The water heat in the winter wheat area is suitable
It is conducive to the booting and heading of wheat in the new season
According to the monitoring of the Central Meteorological Observatory, as of April 18, winter wheat in the north is in the stage of jointing and booting, the southern part of Huanghuai and Jianghan are in the flowering stage, the southwest region is in the flowering and milk maturity stage, and some areas have matured; the development period of most of the producing areas is close to the normal year or 3~8 days early, and some areas in Longdong, Gansu, central Hebei, eastern Henan, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu and other places are 4~8 days late.
Since mid-April, the temperature in the main winter wheat producing areas has been higher by 2°C~6°C, and 10~50 mm of precipitation has occurred in the southeast of Northwest China, the western part of North China, the western and eastern parts of Huanghuai, most of Jianghan, the central and southern parts of Jianghuai, the Sichuan Basin, and the eastern part of Guizhou, which effectively replenishes soil moisture and is generally conducive to winter wheat jointing and booting; the precipitation in most wheat areas of Hebei Province is less than 5 mm or no precipitation, and there is a slight moisture deficiency in wheat fields, and the percentage of moisture deficiency stations is 68.5%. There is still no effective precipitation in southern Sichuan, central Yunnan and western Guizhou, and the drought in farmland continues, which affects the formation of winter wheat yield, but the fine weather is conducive to wheat maturity and harvesting.
This week, the temperature in the northern winter wheat area and the spring sowing area in the northwest is high, the light is normal, and the eastern part of the northwest region, the western part of North China, the western and eastern Huanghuai and other places have 10~50 mm of precipitation, increasing soil moisture, good light, heat and moisture conditions are conducive to winter wheat jointing and booting heading, spring plowing and spring sowing and the growth of sown crop seedlings.
It is expected that in the coming week, the average temperature in most parts of the central and eastern parts of the mainland will be basically close to the same period of the year or slightly higher, and the precipitation in the southeast of Northwest China, northeast China and some parts of Northeast China will be conducive to replenishing soil moisture, which is conducive to winter wheat booting and heading, spring plowing and spring sowing production.
The efficiency of breeding has declined
The price of by-products fell again and again
On April 24, the ex-factory price of bran in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was 1330 yuan/ton, Jinan, Shandong Province was 1360 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou Province, Henan Province was 1370 yuan/ton, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province was 1390 yuan/ton, and Suzhou Province, Anhui Province, down 60~80 yuan/ton week-on-week, 170~200 yuan/ton month-on-month, and 750~790 yuan/ton year-on-year. Despite the poor start-up of flour enterprises and the limited output of bran, the bran in the main producing areas still fell below 1400 yuan/ton, mainly due to poor breeding profits, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices to purchase bran is not strong. The price of bran has plummeted, and the processing profits of flour enterprises have been affected. Monitoring shows that on April 24, the average theoretical milling profit of milling enterprises in the Huanghuai region of North China was 9 yuan/ton, flat week-on-week, and down 90 yuan/ton month-on-month. Among them, Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province is 35.5 yuan/ton, Jinan in Shandong is 16.2 yuan/ton, and Zhengzhou, Henan Province is -25.1 yuan/ton.
On April 24, the operating rate of the surveyed flour enterprises was 40%, flat week-on-week, and down 2 percentage points month-on-month, of which the operating rate of large enterprises was 50%~80%, and the operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises was 20%~50%. The ex-factory price of special powder in Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province is 3120 yuan/ton, 3120 yuan/ton in Beijing and Tianjin, 3100 yuan/ton in Jinan, Shandong, 3100 yuan/ton in Taiyuan, Shanxi, 3080 yuan/ton in Zhengzhou, Henan, 3080 yuan/ton, 3080 yuan/ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 3060 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week, 200 yuan/ton month-on-month, and 140~220 yuan/ton year-on-year. (This article was originally published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on April 27, 2024)