This year's main account is 9% for the year, and what is even more rare is that April is also a positive return so far.
Although U.S. stocks plummeted in April, AI plummeted, and micro-cap stocks plummeted, major events such as the Israel and Iran crises and the yen's collapse also occurred.
If you feel that there are no eggs under the nest, you must not dare to imagine that in April, there are still people who rely on heavy positions in A-shares, not only did not lose money, but also made money.
I did it by relying on three very traditional industries: coal, banking, and infrastructure.
Although the dividend strategy has become popular, it is too far from the traditional popular industries of medicine, liquor, new energy, and semiconductors, whether it is institutional holdings or the scale of index funds.
In this regard, the dividend strategy has peaked, indicating that the ability to think independently needs to be strengthened.
One
Let's start with coal.
Let's start with the conclusion: even if there has been a sharp decline recently, the valuation of the industry is still only reasonable and suitable for holding, not buying.
I made a point earlier:
When discussing whether an industry has peaked, the most important thing is to refer to the views of the bulls, not the bears.
Because the trend is determined by the longs of the position, even if the bears without a position are bearish, they will not affect the industry.
Note that the bulls I am talking about are lurking early, have been held for many years, are profitable, and dare to firmly increase their positions when the industry is bearish.
Just as Warren Buffett invested in Apple and Occidental Petroleum, as long as he did not liquidate Apple, the Nasdaq was just a correction.
Once he decides to liquidate his position, there is a high probability that the risk has arrived, such as clearing BYD and PetroChina.
Among the many coal tycoons I tracked, one of them earned 24 times in 10 years, and the other relied on Luzhou Laojiao and China Shenhua to earn 30 times in 10 years.
They still firmly hold China Shenhua A+H, so it is probably nonsense to talk about the peak of coal.
I will continue to wait for the coal adjustment and will continue to increase my position.
But to be honest, this industry is not suitable for small white investment, the profits of the industry fluctuate greatly, and the current valuation is not cheap.
Two
Let's talk about banks, which are also the largest heavy industry in the dividend low volatility index (accounting for 35.4%).
Let's start with the conclusion: the overall is still relatively undervalued, and the allocation value is high, provided that the expected returns are lowered.
At present, many banks have issued quarterly reports, with performance growth rates mostly between 5% and 15%, price-earnings ratios of no more than 6 times, and dividend yields of 5%+.
Bank of Chengdu: revenue was 6.3% year-on-year, net profit was 12.8% year-on-year, and the valuation was less than 5 times.
Bank of Hangzhou: revenue was 3.5% year-on-year, net profit was 21% year-on-year, and the valuation was less than 5 times.
Bank of Jiangsu: revenue was 11.7% year-on-year, net profit was 10% year-on-year, and the valuation was less than 5 times.
Bank of Nanjing: revenue was 2.8% year-on-year, net profit was 5%+ year-on-year, and the valuation was 5 times.
For an industry with a valuation of less than 5 times, if the long-term net profit is sustainable, a reasonable P/E ratio can be given 10 times.
Recently, banks have also adjusted, and I will continue to increase my position.
However, if the bank does not manage the risk well, the more fierce the expansion in the early stage, the worse it will fall in the later stage.
Funds managed by excellent fund managers are relatively recommended, such as Jiang Cheng's Zhongtai Xingyuan Value Selection and Zhongtai Yuheng Value Selection, with banks accounting for about 20%.
In terms of position recommendations, there is only one: if it falls by 10%-15% in the future, you can still afford it.
Three
The third industry is infrastructure, and I am optimistic about some industry leaders with P/E ratios of 4-5 times.
Infrastructure and banks belong to the same real estate chain, and it is precisely because of the downward trend of real estate that most investors are looking down on the real estate chain by the way, so there will be such a cheap valuation.
But if you look at the excellent leaders in the industry, the actual performance is not so bad.
China State Construction: 23-year revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 6.3% year-on-year.
China Railway: 23-year revenue increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 7.1% year-on-year.
Although they are up 10%+ this year, their valuations are still only 4-5 times, which is very cheap.
If the annual performance growth rate is 5%+, the dividend ratio remains unchanged, and the annual dividend can also increase by 5%+, which is also in line with the double-digit income target in the long run.
I have argued this point in "I Want to Kill the Quartet".
What's more, buying at a very cheap price not only greatly reduces the risk of principal loss, but also effectively controls drawdowns and volatility.
In terms of funds, it is still recommended to have a heavy position in China Construction's Zhongtai Xingyuan Value Selection and Zhongtai Yuheng Value Selection.
My view has always remained the same, if I agree that the investment goal of long-term double-digit returns is not low, and at the same time, it cannot withstand the 30%-50% fluctuation of the bear market.
Jiang Cheng and Zhang Yifei are very much in line with the standards of bottom-position fund managers.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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