According to the Statistical Communiqué on Shenzhen's 2023 National Economic and Social Development released on April 28, at the end of 2023, Shenzhen's permanent population was 17.7901 million, a record high, an increase of 128,300 over the end of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 0.73%, ranking first in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Previously, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou successively disclosed the permanent population data at the end of 2023, with an increase of 15,000, 115,600, and 92,900 respectively.
Number of Permanent Resident Population "重回正轨"
While the population of the four first-tier cities has all grown, the growth background of each city is different.
According to the Statistical Communiqué on Beijing's 2023 National Economic and Social Development, at the end of 2023, Beijing's permanent population increased by 15,000 from the end of the previous year to 21.858 million. The background of this growth is that from 2016 to 2022, the size of Beijing's permanent population has "declined for six consecutive years". In 2022, Beijing's permanent population fell by 43,000.
From 2017 to 2021, Shanghai's permanent population has been rising slightly, and 2022 is the first decline in recent years. As the social economy returns to the right track, Shanghai continues to relax its settlement policy. In 2023, Shanghai's permanent population increased by 115,600. Among them, the permanent resident population increased by 105,400.
It is understood that Shanghai's population increase in 2023 is the largest increase since 2015, and it is also the first time that the increase has exceeded 100,000 since the "13th Five-Year Plan" put forward the long-term population control target.
In the past, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were almost always net inflows. In 2022, Guangzhou's permanent population will decrease by more than 70,000, which is the first negative growth in Guangzhou's permanent population in 20 years. Shenzhen's permanent population will decrease by 19,800 in 2022, which is the first negative population growth since Shenzhen was established in 1979.
Under the special circumstances of 2022, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics has said that "the partial return of the migrant population in a short period of time has caused a phased contraction in the scale of the city's permanent population". However, by 2023, the subway passenger flow data in various places also proves that the return of foreign population to Guangzhou is accelerating.
The "Siphon Effect" of Central Cities
In fact, with the relaxation of policies such as settlement, in addition to the positive population growth of the first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, many second-tier cities with good development momentum also have good population growth momentum.
For example, in recent years, Hefei, Anhui Province has continuously optimized its industrial structure, rejuvenating the city with industry and gathering people with industry. In 2023, Hefei's permanent population will increase by 219,000, ranking first among major cities in the country, and it is also the only "trillion GDP city" with a population growth of more than 200,000.
By the end of 2023, Hefei will have a permanent population of more than 9.853 million, making it the closest city to the target among the cities with a population of 10 million.
In addition, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other provincial capitals have all increased their populations by more than 100,000 people. Among them, Zhengzhou's permanent population increased by 180,000, ranking firmly in the "first city in the north in terms of population increase", not only surpassing Xi'an to become the first city in the north in terms of population increase, but also breaking through the 13 million mark for the first time in terms of total permanent population.
As for Chengdu, in 2023, the city's permanent population will increase by 135,000, ranking first among cities with a population of more than 20 million.
Hangzhou has always been in the first echelon of population attraction, with its population soaring by 3.24 million from 2010 to 2020, making it one of the fastest-growing cities in mainland China in recent years. In 2023, Hangzhou's permanent population will continue to increase by 146,000 to 12.522 million, making it undiminished.
According to the reporter, in 2023, the permanent population of Xi'an and Kunming will also increase by about 80,000. However, at the same time as the net inflow of population in these provincial capitals, many of the permanent residents of these provinces are declining, such as Shaanxi, which actually decreased by 40,000 at the end of 2023, and Sichuan by 60,000. Analysts said that the population of all provinces and provinces is further converging in provincial capitals, and the "population primacy" of provincial capitals continues to increase.
This trend is also the general trend of the flow of Chinese population in recent years. Previously, when the data of the seventh national census were released, many experts pointed out that the Chinese population is further converging in the southeastern coastal provinces and cities, and from the perspective of cities in the province, the population is further concentrating in regional central cities.
Source: Shanghai Securities News, author Cao Ziyi
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