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Market Overview
Technology stocks rose again, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose twice, the S&P and Nasdaq turned down after the Ministry of Finance announced the second-quarter borrowing expectations, Tesla rose 15%, the largest increase in three years, Apple closed up 2.5%, Google fell against the market, fell more than 3%, falling to a record high, and Nvidia closed slightly higher after falling nearly 3% intraday. British stocks hit record highs for three consecutive days, with Philips of the Netherlands up 29% and Deutsche Bank falling nearly 9%.
The yen fell more than 1% intraday in the Asian market, falling below 160 to hit a new low since 1990 for six consecutive days, and then surged 3.5% intraday to regain 155, while the dollar index turned down intraday, once approaching a two-week low. Bitcoin fell nearly $2,000 at one point, falling below the 62,000 mark.
Treasury yields continue to trade off five-month highs. Crude oil fell more than 1% to stop two consecutive gains, and U.S. oil hit a one-month low. Gold futures rebounded at the end of the three-day but have since turned lower. London zinc rose 3.5% to a 13-month high, and London copper rose four in a row, closing above $10,000 for the first time in two years.
In the Chinese market, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3,100 points to hit a new high in the year, real estate stocks broke out, and the northbound bought another 10.9 billion yuan, the Hang Seng Index continued to rise for six consecutive days, and treasury bond futures fell sharply. During the U.S. stock market, the Chinese concept stock index rose for six consecutive years, and new energy vehicle stocks rose together, with Li Auto closing up 7.6% and Baidu up 5.6%. The offshore yuan rose more than 300 points intraday to break through 7.24, hitting a five-week high.
News
China will release its official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for April on Tuesday.
The day after Musk's visit to China, it was frequently rumored that FSD was about to land in China, and Tesla China said that it was estimated soon, and Musk and Zeng Yuqun of CATL met in Beijing to discuss 4680 battery technology and cost.
"New Fed News Agency": Even if the Fed cuts interest rates this year, there will be no more ultra-low interest rates.
The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly raised its borrowing forecast for the second quarter by a large 20%, without taking into account the Fed's slowdown in balance sheet reduction.
The yen soared 3.5% intraday after falling below 160, and the media said that the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the yen.
The market closes
U.S. stocks: The Dow rose 0.38%, the S&P 500 rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.35%.
European stocks: The European STOXX 600 index closed up nearly 0.1%. Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 0.24%. France's CAC 40 index closed down 0.29%. Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.09%.
A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.22%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.5%.
Bond market: By the end of Monday's bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was about 4.61%, down about 5 basis points on the day, and the yield on the two-year Treasury note was about 4.98%, down about 1 basis point on the day.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for June delivery closed down $1.22, or 1.45%, at $82.63 a barrel. Brent crude futures for June delivery closed down $1.10, or 1.23%, at $88.40 a barrel. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.45% at $2,357.7 an ounce. London copper stood above the $10,000 mark, closing up 1.7%, and London zinc rose more than 3.5%.
Highlights
Domestic macro
The population of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen collectively reversed. In 2022, the population of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will all show negative growth. The permanent population data at the end of 2023 shows that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 15,000, 115,600, 92,900 and 128,300 respectively.
Domestic companies
The day after Musk's visit to China, there was constant news about "FSD is about to land in China".
- The official confirmed that the ban has been "lifted", saying that the landing time is approaching. According to the Tesla user app, the description of the purchase page of Tesla's official FSD service in China has been changed from "to be launched later" to "coming soon".
- On April 28, the Technical Department of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers disclosed a notice on the testing of four safety requirements for automotive data processing. According to the report, a total of 6 car companies, including BYD, Li Energy, Lotus, Hezhong New Energy, Tesla and NIO, have a total of 76 models that meet the four compliance requirements for automotive data security.
- Musk met with Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, in Beijing to discuss 4680 battery technology and cost issues. Tesla is facing the challenge of self-production of 4680 batteries, and at the same time, CATL has launched a new type of fast-charging battery, looking forward to possible further technical cooperation and cost reduction between the two parties.
Kweichow Moutai changed its commander after three years, and according to the relevant documents of the Guizhou Provincial Government, Zhang Deqin was recommended as the chairman of Kweichow Moutai.
- According to Kweichow Moutai's 2024 first quarter report, there has been an important "update" to its top ten shareholder list. Relevant state-owned shareholders, external institutions, and important central-level institutions are still among them; a large number of index funds have begun to appear; two Guangdong private equity institutions that have held Moutai for many years have disappeared, and in the past six years, Ruifeng Huibang and Jinhui Rongsheng have been on the list of Moutai shareholders.
The biggest decline in performance since the drunkard liquor plasticizer turmoil.
At the darkest moment of photovoltaics, Tongwei and LONGi both reported losses in the first quarter, and Tongwei announced a buyback.
ICBC, the "Universe Bank", disclosed a quarterly report and earned 963 million yuan per day, which is still the most profitable bank. CCB made a big profit of 86.8 billion yuan in the first quarter, a slight decrease year-on-year, and the annualized weighted ROE reached 11.59%. The revenue of the Postal Savings Bank, the "king of outlets", increased by 1.44% year-on-year in the first quarter, the net profit fell slightly, and the deposit interest payment rate decreased by 5 basis points compared with the end of the previous year. China Merchants Bank's net profit in the first quarter fell slightly by 1.96% year-on-year, operating income decreased by 4.65% year-on-year, and net interest income fell by 6.15% due to the decline in interest rates on existing housing loans.
Guotai Junan's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter was nearly 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.13%, and the net investment income of financial instruments decreased year-on-year.
Vanke's revenue in the first quarter was 61.59 billion yuan, with a net loss of 362 million yuan, a year-on-year loss, and the contracted sales amount of real estate development business was 57.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.8%. On Monday, Vanke had a rare daily limit, and stocks and bonds rose together.
BYD's revenue in the first quarter increased by nearly 4% year-on-year to 124.944 billion yuan, net profit increased by nearly 11% year-on-year to 4.57 billion yuan, and R&D increased by 70% year-on-year.
The net profit of FII in the first quarter rose by 33.77% year-on-year, and the revenue of AI servers nearly tripled year-on-year. The net profit in the first quarter hit a new high in the same period since its listing, and the revenue of cloud computing business accounted for nearly 50% of the overall revenue of FII in the first quarter, and the AI server accounted for nearly 40% of the overall server revenue, a year-on-year increase of nearly two times, showing a nearly double-digit ratio of growth from the previous quarter.
Overseas macro
"New Fed News Agency": Even if the Fed cuts interest rates this year, there will be no more ultra-low interest rates. The Fed wants to "normalize monetary policy," but to what extent? This is a key question about the long-term trend of global asset prices.
The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly raised its second-quarter borrowing forecast sharply, without taking into account the Fed's slowdown in balance sheet reduction. The U.S. Treasury Department raised its forecast for net borrowing in the second quarter by 20% to $243 billion, citing a decline in cash receipts and expecting net borrowing to more than triple to $847 billion in the third quarter, while the cash balance in the Treasury account at the end of the second quarter was expected to remain unchanged at $750 billion and increase to $850 billion at the end of the third quarter, suggesting that actual funding needs in the third quarter were lower than Wall Street expected.
Goldman Sachs warned: If interest rates continue to rise sharply, U.S. stocks will be in big trouble. UBS: Be wary of the risk of a pullback in European and American cyclical stocks. Macro cautiousness and seasonal headwinds have left cyclicals, already with high valuations, lacking further upward momentum.
According to the report, Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened in the market on Monday to support the yen.
- After the yen fell below 160, it soared intraday and was close to the 155.50 line. Japan's Vice Minister of Finance Masato Kanda responded that he would disclose whether he would intervene in the foreign exchange market at the end of May. With U.S. interest rates expected to remain high, Japan will inevitably need to intervene in the foreign exchange market again this year to slow down the yen's decline, and there will be a long tug-of-war in the foreign exchange market.
Modi's "economic pie": India becomes a developed country by 2047. Oxford Economics estimates that for India to become a developed country by 2047, GDP growth will need to more than sixfold from last year to about $23 trillion, which means that India's GDP needs to grow at a rate of at least 8% over the next 25 years.
Overseas companies
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According to the analysis, whether it is at the level of foreign governments or car companies, no one has positively expressed that they have given up on pure electric or new energy transformation.
Industry/Concept
1. Intelligent driving According to the China Securities Journal, Tesla CEO Elon Musk started a new visit to China on the 28th. Premier Li Qiang met with Musk at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse that afternoon. After Musk's visit to Beijing ends, Tesla will receive "tentative approval" to launch FSD (Full-Self Driving, fully self-driving) functions in Chinese mainland. In addition, after Musk arrived in China, Tesla's official Weibo issued two statements, mentioning the acceleration of the implementation of autonomous driving technology. It is worth noting that the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the National Computer Network Emergency Technology Processing and Coordination Center issued a notice on the 28th, stating that all models produced by Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory meet compliance requirements and can lift the ban and parking restrictions on intelligent networked vehicles such as Tesla. It has also been reported that Tesla will partner with Baidu in China, which will provide mapping and navigation services to deploy a system that Tesla calls "Full-Self Driving (FSD)."
Comments: Intelligent driving is the general trend of future automobile development. The period from 2020 to 2030 is the "golden decade" for the development of autonomous driving, and global autonomous driving technology is expected to develop rapidly under the policy drive. Relevant data show that by 2030, 50% of China's cars will be driverless, and the global driverless 4/5 level of cars will reach about 80 million, and the size of China's unmanned vehicle service market is expected to reach 1.3 trillion by 2030.
2. Computing power| According to the official account of the National Data Bureau, recently, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Department of the National Data Administration issued the "Key Points of the Digital Economy in 2024" to deploy the key work of the digital economy in 2024. Among them, it is proposed to appropriately advance the layout of digital infrastructure, further promote the construction of information and communication networks, accelerate the construction of a national integrated computing network, and comprehensively develop data infrastructure.
Comments: Analysts pointed out that as the cornerstone and important content of building a cyber power, digital information infrastructure is becoming an important symbol to measure the core competitiveness of the country. The construction of digital information infrastructure in advance will help provide high-quality products and services for the construction of digital China and the development of the digital economy, efficiently meet the new needs of thousands of industries and households for a better digital life, shape new development momentum and new advantages, and further promote the digital transformation of the economy and society. In the current context of the rapid development of global artificial intelligence, the advanced construction of digital infrastructure and the "artificial intelligence+" action may become an important step for AI to empower thousands of industries in the future. Due to the large scale of computing required in the downstream scenarios of the mainland and the continuous promotion of policies in recent years, the construction of intelligent computing centers in the upstream of the computing industry chain will still maintain a high degree of prosperity. The scale, popularization and localization of the computing power industry chain industry will become the main direction of future development, and it is optimistic that the leading companies in the industrial chain will benefit first.
3. Brain-computer| According to the Shanghai Securities Daily, at the brain-computer interface innovation development and application forum held on the 26th, Gu Xiaosong, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and member of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, said that brain-computer interface is a combination of artificial intelligence and neuroscience, which is closely integrated with communications, games, and military, and can produce new application scenarios. The mainland has been at the forefront of the international market in terms of brain-computer interface research, as well as scientific research input and output. "We are now promoting the formulation of product standards, industry standards, and national standards. ”
Comments: Western Securities believes that brain-computer interface technology has broad prospects, and the medical application field is expected to exceed 40 billion US dollars in the next 10 years. Brain science and brain-like research is one of the seven major scientific and technological frontier research projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan", and brain-computer interface is one of the core key technologies that are expected to be applied at present. Focus on overseas targets in the "0 to 1" stage, as well as domestic mapping.
Today's news preview
China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for April.
Amazon, AMD, Supermicrocomputer, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Starbucks announced their earnings reports.
欧元区一季度GDP、4月CPI。
U.S. S&P/CS 20 Large City Home Price Index for February.
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