【Disk Analysis】
U.S. stocks Nasdaq rose 2% to record the biggest increase in two months, the U.S. PCE data was relatively modest, the market's worries were suspended, commodities as a whole remained strong, and most of the domestic industrial products maintained a volatile trend. The continuous rise in the external market has also led to the continuous rebound of A-shares, and the trading volume of the two markets has rebounded sharply, and the improvement of liquidity is the direct factor driving the rise of the Hong Kong stock market in this round. The sharp net inflow of northbound funds also shows that the pace of over-the-counter funds is accelerating, so the improvement of foreign sentiment will also help the index to rebound, which will change the strategy of institutional funds to reduce their positions sharply before the holiday, and also pay attention to new opportunities after the index rises.
Riding bulls and bears found that from a historical point of view, the market performance is usually better in the time period when there is a large inflow of northbound funds, and when the inflow of northbound funds exceeds 20 billion in a single day, the probability of the market rising on that day and the next week is higher. Judging from the historical time period when northbound funds have flowed into A-shares eight times, the overall market performance of seven of them has been better. In the long run, the slowdown in the U.S. economy and the continued depreciation of the yen, A-share assets are currently cost-effective. In the internal environment, the mainland economy is currently maintaining a recovery trend, with GDP exceeding market expectations in the first quarter, while the overall valuation of A-shares is at a low position, and the layout is cost-effective.
The three major indexes opened mixed, the ChiNext index took the lead in rushing up, the stocks in the two cities rose more and fell less, and the theme plate performed strongly in the auto dismantling, robotics, Sora concept and other sectors, and the shipbuilding, oil, coal and other sectors performed poorly. The concept of intelligent driving is strong, Yitong Century, Kaizhong Precision, etc., many stocks such as Horn Automobile and Electric, Wanji Technology and other stocks rose more than 10%, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is seeking to launch full self-driving (FSD) software in China and seeks approval, Tesla will invest about $10 billion in AI training and inference this year. Robot concept stocks opened actively, Jiangsu Leili rose more than 13%, Tianqi shares rose to the limit, Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center released the world's first pure electric drive anthropomorphic running full-size humanoid robot "Tiangong" in Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone on April 27, which can run stably at a speed of 6 km / h.
The wind power sector has risen, Haili wind power has risen by more than 11%, Dongfang Cable has hit the daily limit, Daikin Heavy Industries and Tianshun Wind Energy are approaching the daily limit, and in the future, rural wind power will become one of the 'wind power troikas' in the new era with onshore bases and offshore wind power, and it is a new 'trillion-level' market. Automobile dismantling concept stocks rose sharply, beyond the technology rose nearly 20%, Huahong Technology, Tianqi shares and other shares of the limit, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Finance and other 7 departments jointly issued the "car trade-in subsidy implementation rules", the "rules" clarified the scope and standards of subsidies. Real estate stocks fluctuated and rose, Nanguo Real Estate 3 boards, Huayuan Real Estate, Jinbin Development and other shares rose more than 5%, from April 29, Chengdu commercial housing projects no longer implement notarization lottery selection, by the enterprise independent sales. City-wide housing transactions will no longer review the qualifications for home purchases.
The lithium sector rebounded, Sichuan Power rose by the limit, Fangyuan shares, Tiantie shares rose nearly 10%, with the rapid growth of lithium battery demand, this year 11-12 months enterprises may need to carry out more replenishment. The corresponding upstream lithium carbonate raw materials will usher in a new round of procurement peaks from August to September, and the price of lithium carbonate will likely rise at that time. Brokerage stocks rose again, Dongxing Securities, Guosheng Financial Holdings, Pacific, Zhongtai Securities, etc. have risen more than 5%, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission has officially issued a decision to accept the change of major shareholders of Debang Securities, dated April 24. Real estate stocks continue to strengthen, Vanke A, Rongsheng Development and other more than 10 shares of the limit, Nanjing issued the "Notice on Matters Concerning the Settlement of Legal and Stable Domicile (Draft for Comments)", the conditions for settlement in Nanjing will be further relaxed, and non-Nanjing household registration personnel who have a legal and stable residence in Nanjing and actually live in Nanjing can directly handle the settlement.
Market:
GEM:
【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index continued to rise on Monday, rising more than 1% intraday, showing obvious signs of rebound. With the rise of financial stocks and blue chips, the market ushered in a real rebound, and the pre-holiday market does have to say: "A little happy!" After that, it depends on whether the previous small and medium-sized micro stocks can recover their losses, and then pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3100 points.
The ChiNext index rose nearly 5% on Tuesday and rose more than 8% in two trading days, which is indeed a rare trend. It's just that the number of stocks that outperformed the index in the two trading days is not much, and most of the stocks are just rising, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for two consecutive trading days.
【Gold Rush Plan】
The sharp return of foreign capital to A-shares is partly due to the tightening of overseas liquidity since April, which has a stronger money-making effect in A-shares, and on the other hand, because overseas economists' expectations for China's economic growth have recently turned optimistic. The valuation of the A-share market is still at a historically low level, and the price-performance advantage is obvious. After the market has stabilized since the beginning of February, the current forward P/E ratio of the CSI 300 is 10.4 times, which is still significantly lower than the historical average of 12.6 times.
Concepts such as real estate, automobile dismantling, and Sora are the main sectors involved in the net inflow of funds, while concepts such as oil, shipbuilding, and the Belt and Road are sectors with relatively large net outflows. As of the end of March, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds this year reached 68.2 billion yuan, far exceeding the whole of last year, and the current trend of continuous inflow of northbound funds has not ended.
Against the backdrop of the U.S. economic slowdown, many Asian currencies dominated by the Japanese yen have continued to depreciate, and many mainstream international investment institutions have recently raised their expectations for A-shares. In addition, the Hong Kong stock market has also recently ushered in the active increase of overseas funds, and the market performance is also outstanding.
Historically, there have been 4 times when the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 20 billion in a single day, and the market is more likely to rise on the day of inflow and the week afterward, but the market performance in the month after the inflow is more volatile.
Judging from the specific positions of northbound funds, the proportion of the market value of household appliances, electrical equipment, food and beverage, automobiles, and leisure services to the total market value of the industry's A-shares in March was still in the forefront. In terms of the allocation of primary industries, foreign investment in March still preferred to allocate food and beverage, electrical equipment and household appliances. From the perspective of changes in the proportion of holdings, foreign investors increased their positions in electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, household appliances and other industries in March, and reduced their positions in pharmaceutical and biological, computer, non-bank financial and other industries.