In the early stage of the "May Day" holiday, the market did not wait for the news of the price recovery of Feitian Moutai, but a personnel change information affected the market sentiment. On the evening of April 29, Kweichow Moutai issued an announcement that, according to the relevant documents of the Guizhou Provincial People's Government, it was recommended that Ding Xiongjun no longer serve as the chairman and director of the company.
The recommended successor is Zhang Deqin, a veteran of Moutai and former chairman of Xijiu. To a certain extent, it is also a signal for the return of the previous Moutai management system. However, in front of Zhang Deqin, there is not only the instability of Moutai's stock price and the fluctuation of Moutai's market price, but also the need to face problems such as channels and Moutai's internationalization strategy.
Capital price stabilization and product price control
For the new chairman Zhang Deqin, the first thing he faces after taking office is the price problem, that is, the price of Feitian Moutai in the terminal market has fallen and the stock price has fluctuated in the capital market.
Recently, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily visited a number of cigarette hotels in Xicheng, Chaoyang and Dongcheng in Beijing and found that the current transaction price of 53 degrees Feitian Moutai bulk bottle terminal market is 2700-2800 yuan / bottle. In the cigarette hotel near Anzhenqiao in Chaoyang District, the clerk told reporters that the current supply is sufficient, the price of loose bottles is 2,800 yuan, and the price of non-invoicing is 2,750 yuan, and the price of the original box is 3,100 yuan, and the price of non-invoicing is 3,000 yuan. "At present, the transaction price of Feitian Moutai in the Beijing market is generally above 2,700 yuan per bottle, which is lower than last year, but it rarely falls below 2,500 or 2,600 yuan. The clerk of the store said frankly.
For Feitian Moutai, 2600 yuan / bottle seems to have become the psychological line of defense of the terminal market, below the price, both channel providers and terminal merchants have to mention the spirit of 12 points to prevent high-priced recycled products from "losing money and making money".
Ouyang Qianli, a researcher in the wine industry, told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily that the decline in the batch price of Feitian Moutai is due to the fact that Moutai has increased the investment of non-standard Moutai (100ml and 375ml), which has affected the market demand for Feitian Moutai, resulting in a decline in the retail price of the market.
Product price fluctuations are like a pebble thrown into water, causing ripples in the terminal market and even the capital market. The decline in the transaction price of Feitian Moutai terminal and the decline in the batch price not only caused a lot of pressure on the Kweichow Moutai market and channels, but also gradually put pressure on the capital market.
Since August 2023, Kweichow Moutai's share price has shown a volatile downward trend. In the 78 trading days since January 1, Kweichow Moutai hit the lowest price of 1555.55 yuan/share and the highest price of 1749.1 yuan/share on January 18 and March 12 respectively. Among them, Kweichow Moutai's lowest intraday price of 1555.55 yuan per share this year is also the lowest price since December 2022.
Based on such a terminal market environment and the current situation of the capital market, in response to the question of whether the company's strategy will be adjusted after the new chairman takes office, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily interviewed the relevant departments of Kweichow Moutai, but did not receive a reply as of press time.
It is understood that during his tenure in Xijiu, Zhang Deqin made a series of actions on terminal price control in response to the price fluctuations of Xijiu market. Looking at the price situation of terminal liquor products, price inversion and high terminal inventory have long become a problem that plagues liquor. In this regard, Xijiu issued a "notification letter" to individual distributors, saying that because the distributor's inventory rate was higher than the red line, Xijiu suspended the company's product supply in the second quarter.
Shen Meng, director of Xiangsong Capital, pointed out that after the new chairman took office, he first needed to stabilize the consumer market and capital market. Among them, the underlying logic behind the price of Feitian Moutai still needs to be clarified. If it is because of the decline in demand, then the value logic of Moutai may be adjusted, and if it is the traditional dealers who express their vigorous promotion of Moutai's distribution autonomy, then it is only a short-term problem.
Channel balancing
If the fluctuating performance of the capital market and the decline in terminal market prices are only the examination questions given to Zhang Deqin by the product side, then how to balance the self-operated channels and traditional channels has become a difficult problem left to Zhang Deqin by the channel side.
According to the 2023 financial report data, Kweichow Moutai's wholesale agents and direct sales channels achieved operating income of 79.986 billion yuan and 67.233 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 7.52% and 36.16% year-on-year, and gross profit margins of 89.29% and 95.46% respectively, an increase of 0.07% and -0.74% year-on-year.
According to Kweichow Moutai, direct sales channels include specialty stores and i Moutai, while wholesale agency channels include social distributors, supermarkets, e-commerce, etc. Between direct sales channels and wholesale agency channels, Kweichow Moutai has been looking for a balance point. At that time, Ding Xiongjun pointed out at the shareholders' meeting that it is necessary to study the channel problem from the perspective of "ecology", and the channels should be maintained at an optimal balance point, so that the value of different channels can be fully exerted, so that the ability of each channel to resist risks and create value is maximized.
In fact, finding the right balance between channels is not an easy task. In 2016, the sales revenue of each channel was disclosed in the financial report for the first time, and at that time, Kweichow Moutai's direct sales channel and wholesale agency channel achieved 3.485 billion yuan and 35.356 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the direct sales channel accounted for 8.97% of the total revenue.
In less than ten years, Moutai's direct sales channel not only broke the monopoly position of the wholesale agency channel, but also directly changed the channel structure of Kweichow Moutai. At the same time, as Kweichow Moutai continues to build its own direct sales channels, the balance that once tended to be a social dealer is now slowly returning to normal.
With the launch of the i Moutai App, the revenue of the direct sales channel has also continued to increase. A reporter from Beijing Business Daily sorted out the data and found that from 2018 to 2022, the revenue of Kweichow Moutai's direct sales channels accounted for 5.94%, 8.49%, 13.93%, 22.63%, and 39.79% respectively. In the first quarter of this year, this figure has risen to 42.2%.
Xiao Zhuqing, a liquor marketer, said that Moutai's traditional channel dealers have made great contributions to Moutai's public awareness and psychological price expectations in today's society. The traditional dealers of Moutai in various places have strong stickiness, high-quality circle resources and social influence, and have made great contributions to maintaining Moutai's price and market order. Today, the sales performance of Kweichow Moutai's direct sales system has accounted for nearly 50%, and further increasing the proportion of direct sales performance may cause Moutai's traditional channel partners to slack off, boycott or change their doors with high-net-worth private domain traffic resources, which will affect the foundation of Moutai's channels.
In fact, for Zhang Deqin, it seems that she has already "pre-learned" in the face of channel problems. During Zhang Deqin's tenure at the helm of Guizhou Xijiu, she launched the "Junpinhui" App in September 2023. Different from the i Moutai App, in addition to product and cultural and creative sales, Junpinhui App also sells local products from Guizhou.
While making efforts in e-commerce channels, Zhang Deqin has also frequently thrown olive branches to dealers. At the 2024 National Distributor Conference of Guizhou Xijiu, Zhang Deqin once called the distributors the benefactors of Xijiu and issued a "ten-year appointment" to the majority of distributors.
In this regard, Shen Meng pointed out that the proportion of Kweichow Moutai's own channels has risen rapidly, but the role of traditional dealers can not be underestimated.
Where is internationalization headed?
2024 is a key breakthrough year for Moutai's internationalization. Further intensifying the efforts to build an international market and accelerating the pace of international market construction are the top priorities of Moutai's market work in 2024.
According to the financial report data, in 2023, Kweichow Moutai will achieve operating income of 4.35 billion yuan in the international market, an increase of 2.61% year-on-year, accounting for 2.95% of total revenue, and a gross profit margin of 92.18%, which is 0.08 percentage points higher than the gross profit margin of the domestic market. As of the end of 2023, the number of Kweichow Moutai dealers in foreign markets will reach 106, with a net increase of 1.
According to a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, up to now, the Moutai international market has covered 64 countries and regions around the world, with 106 international channel providers, 44 specialty stores and 3 Moutai cultural experience halls. At the same time, Kweichow Moutai plans to not only achieve a significant increase in revenue in overseas markets by 2027, but also expand the scope of overseas markets and deploy more countries and regions.
But whether it is for Kweichow Moutai or the entire liquor track, it is not easy to enter the overseas spirits market and gain a place. Ouyang Qianli pointed out that the internationalization of Chinese liquor is a long process and faces many challenges, but "although the road is far away, it is coming, and although it is difficult to do, it will be done". In the future, wine companies should not only embrace the habits of overseas audiences, but also maintain their own characteristics. In addition, it is necessary to maximize the "spokesperson effect", broaden the popularity and influence of products, strengthen cooperation with local businessmen or enterprises, and strategically expand overseas markets.
In this regard, Xiao Zhuqing pointed out that the internationalization of Moutai, which has just been launched, needs to expand the influence of the international capital market on the one hand, attract international capital investors to hold Kweichow Moutai for a long time, and on the other hand, it is necessary to make Moutai's influence and consumption coverage break through the Chinese circle.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Yibo Feng Ruonan