Yesterday, the market continued to explode, with an inflow of 10.9 billion northbound funds, plus 22.4 billion last Friday, opening a buy-buy-buy mode.
In terms of gains, real estate is the most beautiful boy, Vanke Hong Kong stocks rose 19cm, Sunac +32.7cm.
There is a small essay legend that the above will be transformed into a charter public model, and while collecting stock housing and reducing liquidity, it will be converted into rental affordable housing.
The next day, Moody's just downgraded Vanke's rating, and it took off today, and the capital changed rapidly.
On the other hand, the 30-year Treasury bond ETF fell by nearly 4% in 4 days, and it was directly braided.
Tears are really falling from the eyes of those who buy bond funds these days....
As I told you, the best option for shorting the economy is a 30-year Treasury bond ETF, but as soon as the A-share man returns, it will wither...
It can only be said that the 30-year treasury bond ETF, in the case of too large interest rate difference in the domestic and foreign markets, the risk is too great, the return is too low, and whoever loves it plays.
In addition, I heard some people say that they vaguely feel that the bull market is coming, what fund is more appropriate to ambush now?
First of all, it is still the same view, regardless of whether the bull market is bull or not, in terms of the mainland market, the priority is equity> short-term debt/cash> long-term debt > housing
I remember that a few days ago I sent you an all-A position index, 85 raised to 9 percent,
Although it has risen again in the past few days and returned to 85, 85 is still more optimistic about the follow-up level of the stock market.
To put it simply, the interest rate of treasury bonds is 2.3%, and in such a low interest rate environment, there is a high probability that a good index on the whole will be able to overturn it.
I have recommended a few A-share indices to you before.
Dividend quality: 2.8% dividend yield, quality stock selection strategy, but dividends can be higher than Treasury bonds.
The above is the dividend part, just look at the dividend quality 50 price index without dividends, 05-24 is like this
Bonus quality 50
Although there is a high probability that A-shares will not be able to reproduce in the future, the income of performance growth will be discounted by 2 or 5 percent.
However, as long as it has positive growth in index performance in the future, plus dividends, it is likely to have a higher yield than government bonds.
Obviously, even if the economic environment is poor, a good index can still beat the current government debt.
Therefore, those ETFs with heavy positions in 30-year treasury bonds and betting on the decline of domestic economic interest rates are still too short-sighted and do not pay attention to the huge risks of long-term bonds.
In the same way, there is also a consumption dividend, although the quality of the dividend 50 is slightly higher than the consumption dividend, but the underlying logic is similar.
The above are the two strategy indices with the highest winning rate, and the recent discussion of the leading dividend 50, the strategy analysis is also being written at your request this week.
In fact, just looking at the industry index, the dividend yield of many industries has reached a relatively high position in history.
For example, CSI liquor, the strongest industry in the history of A-shares, now has a dividend yield of 2.41%.
There are also various other track sectors, including the CSI New Energy Index, which has also exceeded 2%.
Of course, the above only shows that the stock market is significantly more attractive than the bond market in terms of current domestic interest rates.
However, when it comes to how to choose, the difference in profitability will still be relatively large.
In the last 6 days, the CSI dividend has fallen for 4 days, but it has not kept up with the rise in the past few days, because the heavy industry is too risk-averse, so the elasticity is poor.
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However, the above judgment is still based on the long-term, but buying A shares contains a bull market option, A shares do not have slow bulls, only fast bulls and slow bears...
Therefore, when I design all-weather, I only dare to put a little bit of A shares, if I don't want this bull market option, the risk-reward ratio is obviously higher when choosing overseas ETFs.
For example, the dividend returns of most mature consumer stocks are also higher than the current domestic risk-free interest rate.
Moreover, there are no policy moths in overseas varieties, especially in the consumer sector, which is as stable as an old dog, and its long-term volatility is half smaller than that of A-shares.
Some constituents of the S&P Consumer ETF
The disadvantage is that the ceiling is not as attractive as I A, just like a 70-year-old man who gives up his illusions and approaches reality and accepts the fact that he is slowly getting rich.
I myself have financial leverage, and I have to avoid all kinds of extreme risks and reduce volatility to obtain stable happiness.
But some people have a small amount of money, so they want to gamble, and they can only say that turnip greens have their own advantages.
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1. Musk arrived in Beijing to talk to the leaders, it is estimated that it is for the domestic landing of fully autonomous driving FSD, and the next may be the same as the original establishment of Tesla's Chinese gigafactory, the first Asian version of FSD is specially approved, but the problem is that Lao Ma wants to send China's autonomous driving data back to the United States (after desensitization) to train the model, which is another taboo point for us, look, if it can be done, it is estimated that we will soon see the rapid popularization of automatic driving.
2. According to wind data, the sum of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the 4,832 companies disclosed in A-share in 23 years decreased by 0.67% year-on-year in 22 years, and the revenue increased by 0.97% year-on-year, and the 23 years were really difficult, and the revenue and profits of listed companies hit the street, and then I looked at the 1000 companies with the smallest market capitalization, with a total revenue decline of 11.6%, and the total profit changed from +3.86 billion last year to a blood loss of -11 billion, which is 5.2% of the GDP growth rate in 2023 It's not a good match, and blindly guessing the data of small companies may be closer to the real feelings of ordinary people...
3. ChinaAMC, Bosera and Harvest's 6 currency ETFs were issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange yesterday (4.29) and listed today.
4, the dollar against the yen in the 160 window after falling back to 156 position, sources said, the Japanese financial authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market, the current probability is also shot, in recent days the yen in free fall depreciation, but the sharp rise is accompanied by a sharp fall, I feel that it will soon be phased bottom, May Day to Japan travel, more exchange of Japanese currency can not be good to earn back the tour fare...
Personal YY, for reference only, investment is risky, financial management needs to be cautious...
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