Zhang Kun's heavy liquor is numb!

Sharp eyes on finance

2024-04-29 16:59Posted on the official account of Beijing Ruiyan Finance

The battle for the old three in the liquor industry has started again!

Yanghe, the status of the third liquor is not guaranteed

Mao Wulu, Mao Wulu said how many years, Moutai, Wuliangye in the liquor industry hegemony is unshakable, since the second Wuliangye after the third gap is the fault gap, over the years Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe shares two liquor brands for the "liquor third" position, has also been many confrontations, do not give in to each other, and Shanxi Fenjiu is also eager to try the status of the third by virtue of its high-speed growth.

However, as the recent A-share annual report season comes to an end, major liquor brands have disclosed their financial reports one after another, and the position of the third liquor in this year may really give way to Fenjiu.

On April 27, Yanghe Co., Ltd. released its 2023 financial report, with revenue of 33.126 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit of 10.016 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. With the blessing of tens of billions of profits, Yanghe announced a high-profile dividend plan of 10 distributions of 46 yuan, and distributed 7.02 billion cash dividends to all shareholders!

(Screenshot of Yanghe's 2023 financial report)

It is worth mentioning that in 2023, Yanghe will make a profit of 10.016 billion yuan and distribute 7.02 billion dividends to shareholders, which is the largest dividend payout since its listing in 2009, with a dividend payout ratio of 70.09%.

I don't know if Yanghe did this because the company made 10 billion a year and really got rich, or did it comfort the shareholders who have been optimistic about Yanghe's development for a long time through high dividends?

Because, in the secondary market, since the high level of the A-share liquor market at the beginning of 2021, the share price of Yanghe shares is the worst performance among several major listed large liquor companies, which also means that the return to shareholders is also the worst, since then the share price of Yanghe shares has fallen by more than 65%, and today the stock price has fallen again, and the total market value has fallen from the highest 397.393 billion to 144.4 billion today, down more than 250 billion!

(Screenshot of Yanghe stock price trend)

During the same period, the share price of Shanxi Fenjiu fell by only about 51% at the maximum, with the latest market value of 314.8 billion, which is the third largest market value of A-share liquor.

In addition, Shanxi Fenjiu's 2023 financial report on April 26 also showed that the revenue was 31.928 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and the net profit was 10.438 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.93%. On April 27, Luzhou Laojiao's 2023 financial report showed that the revenue was 30.233 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.34%, and the net profit was 13.245 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%.

In this comparison, the status of the third child of Yanghe shares can be described as embattled and precarious, and Shanxi Fenjiu will pull Yanghe shares from the position of the third as long as it makes a little effort!

Fenjiu can't be beaten outside the province, and the province is eaten away by the fate of this world

In the past few years, as young people are "not cold" to liquor, production continues to decline, and brands have become the main characteristics of the domestic liquor industry through price increases.

However, in this process, Su Jiu Yanghe, who was once high and invincible, became an out-and-out "middle student", and he couldn't do Mao Wulu up to the whole country, even if he followed Mao Wulu as a small follower, he was still plugged in by Fenjiu, and he couldn't look down on the one acre and three points of land in Jiangsu Province, which gave Su Jiu the second child a good opportunity to take advantage of the situation.

Obviously, judging from the results, Yanghe is "losing his wife and losing his soldiers" in the development of nationalization and Jiangsu Province, I don't know if it is a matter of the company's strategy or the reason for the intensification of competition in the liquor industry?

Judging from the scale of revenue in 2023, the gap between Fenjiu and Yanghe has narrowed to about 1 billion, and to be honest, for Fenjiu, which is still maintaining high growth, this gap is basically negligible. Specifically, the revenue of Fenjiu outside the province has reached 19.659 billion, and the revenue outside Yanghe Province is 18.096 billion.

(Screenshot of Yanghe's 2023 financial report)

Provincial Interior?

As we all know, the share of Sujiu Yanghe in Jiangsu Province has been gradually eroded step by step by the current world!

Although Jinshiyuan has not yet disclosed its 2023 financial report, its provincial revenue in 2022 has reached 7.369 billion, accounting for more than 93%, and in the first three quarters of 2023, the provincial revenue will exceed 7.76 billion, accounting for more than 92%. According to the data released by Jinshiyuan on December 29, 2023, it is expected to achieve annual revenue of about 10.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.41%, and according to this data, it is estimated that the revenue of Jinshiyuan Province in 2023 should exceed 9 billion.

This is another scene that embarrasses Yanghe, who has always regarded himself as the "boss of Su wine". Before Yanghe's high-profile announcement of nationalization, there was almost no room for the survival of the present world in Jiangsu Province.

2019 is the first time that Yanghe's income outside the province has exceeded that of the province, which means the official beginning of nationalization. In 2018, the income of Yanghe Province was 12.326 billion, and the income of Shiyuan Province is only 3.542 billion.

Nowadays, with Yanghe's "expansion of territory" outside the province, Jinshiyuan is simply not too moisturized in Jiangsu Province, and since 2018, the compound annual growth rate of income in Jinshiyuan Province has exceeded 20%, and Yanghe is almost standing still!

Chongcang Yanghe looked down on Zhang Kun, who was in the world, and lost miserably

What makes Yanghe's management and shareholders even more embarrassed may be that with the failure of Yanghe's nationalization and the encroachment of the province by Jinshiyuan, in terms of stock price performance in the secondary market, Jinshiyuan's share price is much stronger than Yanghe's stock price.

Since the high level of liquor stocks in early 2021, Yanghe's largest decline has exceeded 65%, and the largest drawdown of Shiyuan is only 45%, and its share price has risen a little bit since the beginning of 2021 at the end of today, while Yanghe is still falling!

Two Su wines, one big Su wine, one small Su wine, the difference in stock price performance is transmitted to the public fund, which is more interesting.

There is no one else in the fund who has a heavy position in Yanghe shares for a long time, that is, Zhang Kun's E Fund Blue Chip Selection, and the "winery" is obviously not in vain. However, Zhang Kun, who likes "wine tasting", in addition to being able to hold heavy wines, doesn't seem to look down on small wines like Jinshiyuan at all, and would rather buy Meituan, Li Ning, and WuXi Biologics, which are far away in Hong Kong stocks, than look at Jinshiyuan.

(E Fund blue-chip selected heavy stocks, data source: Tiantian Fund Network)

As a result, everyone should know that the long-term downturn of A-share liquor stocks, the collapse of WuXi and the plummeting stock prices of Meituan and Li Ning have led to huge losses for the people who have held the fund managed by Zhang Kun in recent years, with a maximum drawdown of more than 56% of the net value, and a huge loss of more than 32 billion yuan in the past three years!

In comparison, those funds that put down their positions and used this world as a heavy position performed much better. For example, Harvest's lead, which is the third largest heavy stock, has a maximum drawdown of only about 30% since its inception in June 2021.

(Harvest leading edge heavy stocks, data source: Tiantian Fund Network)

Of course, this is only to illustrate the difference between the stock price performance of Yanghe and Jinshiyuan, not to say how good the Harvest lead fund is. Obviously, the fund of Harvest Lead, which is not good, was only 4.898 billion in the past three years, but it also lost more than 1.9 billion to the people!

Therefore, in the transmission chain of capital, the biggest risk faced by shareholders is the management error of listed companies and the overall turbulence of the capital market, and the risk faced by the people is on top of the risk faced by the shareholders plus the risk of management errors by the fund manager.

View original image 87K