"Major changes after May Day" went crazy, and real estate stocks led the rise

Wind and financial news depth

2024-04-29 14:23Published on the financial account of Shanghai Phoenix.com

Source: Fengcai News

Produced by fengcaixun

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On April 29, the trend of real estate stocks was very spectacular, and the real estate development sector not only led the rise, but also frequently set off a tide of daily limits - Vanke A, Gemdale Group, Jingneng Real Estate, Jinbin Development, Rongan Real Estate, Beijing Investment Development, Rongsheng Development and other 18 stocks were closed by the daily limit.

(2024.4.29 Stock Market Sector Gainers)

From the perspective of funds, the main reason for the rise of A-shares is northbound funds, with a net purchase volume of more than 12 billion this morning, and a half-day turnover of nearly 800 billion in the two cities. Among them, real estate has ranked first in the net inflow of 10 major forces in a row, and the amount of funds has reached a high level today.

What affects the repatriation of funds?

In the real estate that is greatly affected by the policy, policy news is a factor that cannot be ignored.

Major rumors came to concentrate on May Day and release after May Day?

Recently, the news of real estate policy has continued, and it is rumored that the important meeting on April 30 will determine the major directional changes in real estate policy.

After May Day, restrictions on house purchases, price restrictions, taxes, and sublease of existing houses may be adjusted one after another. The news has not been officially verified, but it is very popular and influential.

At the same time, it is also rumored that after May Day, more hot cities will fully relax housing purchase restrictions.

On April 28, Chengdu announced the complete cancellation of purchase restrictions, and the city, which has led the rise in housing transaction volume and prices for 2 consecutive years, has also "relaxed" no longer reviewing household registration, social security and other housing purchase conditions, no longer restricting the number of units purchased, no longer lottery, and the rumors of a comprehensive relaxation of purchase restrictions are even worse.

On April 29, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau responded to the news that "the purchase restriction policy will be optimized", not only did not deny the relaxation of purchase restrictions, but also said that "it will make good use of the policy toolbox to better meet the needs of residents for rigid and improved housing, and promote the steady development of Shenzhen's real estate market".

According to the statistics of Centaline Real Estate, as of April 28, 22 major cities across the country have fully lifted purchase restrictions. Among the 29 major cities, only Beijing and Shenzhen have not lifted purchase restrictions, and Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Changsha, Xi'an, and Tianjin have partially liberalized and retained some purchase restrictions.

As a result, speculation about the "phased exit history of purchase restrictions" has become more and more intense, quoting the words of a first-line real estate sales agent, "If you don't relax, your brain hole in selling houses will be hollowed out."

The market has gone crazy

Indeed, in order to sell a house nowadays, both developers and intermediaries have come up with strange tricks.

For example, have you ever heard of "second-hand housing pre-sale"?

Pre-sale, which was originally a matter that was only involved in the sale of new houses and unfinished properties, has been used by intermediaries for second-hand houses.

A real estate project in Guangzhou that has been delivered in 2022 has recently started "pre-sale". It is obviously a second-hand house, but it plays a hot game with various marketing tricks of new houses such as pre-sale, opening, commission, fan group marketing, media communication, and on-site lottery.

Even today's second-hand housing sales have appeared in various segments of the "selling house escort service", the intermediary clearly marked the price - telephone communication selling consultation fee 999 yuan, selling house running escort 5,000 yuan, the whole process of selling the minimum 20,000 yuan.

The developers are also very involved. For example, in order to encourage valet and house sales, a developer in Guangzhou even created a "transaction ranking" for the media.

However, some self-media in the list reflected that they did not help the developer sell the house. The intention of the release of the list has raised doubts in the industry.

(The picture is only a screenshot of the list, and the name of the self-media is blurred)

Agency: Chinese housing prices or the U.S. model

The third quarter of 2027 bottoms out and then rises

The frequent marketing tricks reflect the market's concern about the prospect of selling homes.

However, with the frequent introduction of incentive policies, the mentality of some market participants may be affected.

For example, in Shenzhen, there have been owners who have sold houses who refuse to exchange excessive price for volume, and resist PUA tricks such as intermediaries "spreading low-priced listings, self-directing and self-acting low prices, and pulling people to look at houses".

However, some owners believe that they are very anxious, because the speed of second-hand housing is too fast, which is beyond their psychological tolerance.

This concern is not unreasonable, and the vast majority of people are confused about where China's real estate will go after this wave of market adjustment.

From the experience of other countries, Japanese real estate has experienced a decline for 20 years (80 quarters) after the financial crisis.

In the last wave of the U.S. real estate market, home prices peaked in the first quarter of 2006 and bottomed out in the first quarter of 2012, 24 quarters later.

China's current curve is similar to that of the United States and Japan, so is the next step to reverse like the United States, or to continue to decline like Japan?

In Goldman Sachs' latest research report, the agency believes that China's house price trend should be more similar to that of the United States, with the bottom of house prices roughly 24 quarters after the peak.

Specifically, China's housing prices peaked in the third quarter of 2021 and are likely to bottom out in the third quarter of 2027.

What do you think about this?

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