Last Friday, there was a big rise, and the most popular voice in the market was: Monday is going to fall.
Haha, it's interesting.
This reminds me of the six phases of a bull market.
The first stage: do not believe that it will rise;
The second stage: it is believed that it will make up for the decline;
Stage 3: Rise to disbelief;
Stage 4: Rise to the point of believing;
Stage 5: Don't Rise, Don't Believe;
Stage 6: Don't believe and don't rise.
Truth be told, there's no point in speculating on short-term trends.
Real investors are looking at the general trend, and then patiently holding it until it is time to sell it to the receiver.
Regarding the general trend ahead, there are three big positives over the weekend.
First, Chengdu fired the first shot
Over the weekend, Chengdu completely canceled the property market restriction policy, and everyone can buy as much as you want.
I know that many people continue to be pessimistic about the property market.
This is a typical characteristic of the masses, who are always optimistic and infinitely optimistic, and infinitely pessimistic when pessimistic.
So it's always the top quilt and the opportunity is missed at the bottom.
Everyone is pessimistic, in fact, just because they see that house prices continue to fall.
If house prices stabilize and rise for a while, they will be confused.
Doesn't it say that there is a surplus of houses? Doesn't it say that young people don't buy houses? Doesn't it say that residents are too heavily leveraged?
But in fact, as long as housing prices stabilize and rise, all the above three reasons do not exist.
At present, the property market is not without demand, but the real demand is limited by policies.
For core cities, how can there be no demand for a large number of young people to influx?
There are still a large number of people who want to change houses, how can there be no demand?
The more important reason for the decline in housing prices we see is not that residents do not buy, but that the capital chain of real estate companies is broken.
As a result, real estate companies are in a hurry to return the money.
From the perspective of supply and demand, whoever is in a hurry is in a weak position.
Due to the problem of debt side of real estate companies, it is not easy for housing prices to stabilize.
You can think about the stock market at the beginning of the year, which is also a problem on the liability side.
When the market has a problem with the debt side, it doesn't look at the fundamentals at all.
It is necessary to clear the problems on the debt side before regaining reason.
There are two solutions to the problem of the debt side of real estate enterprises:
1. There is capital injection to help them solve the cash flow problem;
2. The speed of payment collection increases.
Loosening the purchase restriction is to open up the effective demand and help to collect the payment.
Once real estate companies are not in a hurry, housing prices will naturally stabilize.
However, it should be pointed out that the stabilization here is worth the national average house price.
As for some small places, I'm afraid it's not a problem of housing prices, but a problem of liquidity.
Chengdu fired the first shot, and there will be a second shot and a third shot in the future.
There must be a lot of demand in the core cities, and real estate companies can increase the collection in the core cities to survive the most difficult period.
Second, short selling is suppressed
Last week, regulators gave guidance to both brokerages and private placements.
The main thing is to restrict derivatives trading.
For example, the size of the snowball, neutral strategy is also limited, and the leverage ratio is also required to be reported.
These kinds of products are all suppressing the beta price of the market.
The restriction on derivatives actually reduces the size of the short position.
For the public offering, a lot of restrictions have also been added, and on the whole, they are to limit the internal friction of the stock market, which will help to launch the beta market.
Of course, for practitioners, the original rules can no longer be played, and a round of reshuffle will inevitably be ushered in.
But to be honest, it is the general trend for the asset management industry to move closer overseas.
Third, risk appetite has rebounded
The bond market was still trading on Sunday, and the signal from the bond market was that risk appetite was picking up.
Yesterday there was an increase in bond rates across maturities.
The central mother has not suppressed M2 after knocking on the bond market speculators, but the bond interest rate is still rising, which indicates that risk appetite has rebounded in the short term
My guess is that institutions should go first, and residents' risk appetite is lagging behind.
Therefore, it is very likely that the agency will continue to sweep the goods in the future.
The reason is also very simple, once the stock market starts to rise, all the institutions can't sit still.
Because once they underperform the index and underperform their peers, it means a catastrophe.
You can think about it empathically, their customers have been ravaged so badly in a bear market, and they are counting on the bull market to come and quickly return to their original capital.
If the stock market rises sharply and their funds rise slowly, how will they feel?
At the end of last week, I posted two articles in a row to explain the underlying logic of this round of market, and foreign capital will not be soft.
Foreign capital will force domestic institutions to chase!
Fourth, summary
I don't want to predict short-term fluctuations, but the general trend is set, so it's good to be patient.
When to sell, you have to make a plan that suits you, rather than just operating indiscriminately when you see fluctuations.
By the way, the talks between the two big countries over the weekend were also good, of course, what you see on the news side is official language, and you can't see what it means behind it.
The underlying logic involves the "savings-investment rebalancing" between China and the United States. This is also the reason why foreign capital is so crazy.
For specific analysis, I posted it on the official account and community today.
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