Recently, with the shortening of the stocking time and the improvement of urea trend, the downstream summer corn fertilizer ushered in a boom in production and sales, and the demand for monoammonium phosphate followed up slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of the monoammonium phosphate industry fell by more than 10% in April, the supply was greatly reduced, and there was no significant change in the main upstream raw materials, the cost was still high, and the monoammonium phosphate market was temporarily stable.
After spring ploughing, the summer fertilizer market gradually entered the stage of rigid demand release. In mid-April, the summer corn fertilizer pre-harvest of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises was generally good, and most factories were ready to implement until mid-to-late May, and the industry's capacity utilization rate increased to more than 47%, an increase of 5.35% month-on-month. Although high nitrogen fertilizer is the main fertilizer in summer, due to the lack of raw material stock in the early stage of some compound fertilizer enterprises, with the increase of the starting load of the device, there is a small amount of monoammonium phosphate that needs to be followed up, and the raw material phosphate rock has not appeared as expected to decline sharply, the cost is still high, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate has gradually stabilized and waited.
Previously, after mid-to-late March, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market trend weakened, the overall demand side was weak, the new orders of manufacturers were insufficient, sales and inventory were under pressure, and some large production enterprises successively introduced minimum guarantee policies, and the market price continued to invert with the factory price. Among them, the ex-factory price of 55 powder in Central China is about 3,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the ex-factory price of the market is about 2,850 yuan, and the transaction remains the truth; the price of 55 powder in East China and North China is about 2,950 yuan; the Northeast region has gradually entered the stage of sweeping, and the price of Bayuquan 55 powder has been raised by 2,800~2,850 yuan, and the actual transaction has been negotiated.
After the introduction of the minimum guarantee policy for monoammonium phosphate plants, many core customers have orders to follow up, and they can be executed for 1 month, but the price of phosphate rock has not dropped significantly, the cost reduction is limited, and the shutdown and production reduction of the device have increased, and the capacity utilization rate of the industry has dropped to about 44% at this stage. Affected by the continued pressure on costs and the continuous reduction of supply, individual factories have no longer implemented the minimum guarantee policy, and a small amount of demand has appeared in the North China market, and the prices of manufacturers have not changed at this stage.
Monoammonium phosphate raw material fluctuation schedule
| products | Current trend | Good | Bad | Short-term forecasts |
| Phosphate rock | Consolidation operation, the price has not changed for the time being, and the downstream signing orders are mostly executed without pricing operations | High-grade supply is tightening | Downstream weakness | Hubei mainstream factory |
| Sulfur | Weak downward | The outer disk is high | Inventories are high | Weak decline |
| Sulfuric acid | Local adjustments | Raw material copper-gold ore is tight | Downstream weakened | Locally, there was a slight rise and fall |
| 合成氨 | Stable fluctuations, the mainstream basically stabilized | The device is frequently overhauled | Demand is weak | Wait and see |
In terms of raw materials, phosphate rock is expected to decline, but at this stage it is a wait-and-see stalemate, and mining companies believe that the inventory of downstream phosphate fertilizer factories is low, and there is a rigid demand in the later stage, so the decline will not be too large; in terms of sulfuric acid, the main acid plant in Jiangxi may recover at the beginning of the month, and the downstream phosphate fertilizer starts to decline, and the expected decline in sulfuric acid still exists; in terms of sulfur, the port market is weak and downward, and the lack of good news is unstable, and the demand side is looking for goods at a low price, which lowers the market price, and the center of gravity of the transaction is shifted downward; in terms of synthetic ammonia, it is affected by the decrease in downstream start-up and weakening demand, and it is weak and volatile。 From the overall cost side, other products account for a relatively small proportion, or mainly depends on the changes in phosphate rock.
On the whole, the cost of monoammonium phosphate is still showing a downward trend, the cost support is gradually weakening, and the demand for phosphorus in the downstream high-nitrogen fertilizer production is limited, but the supply of monoammonium phosphate is still shrinking, and the market is gradually decreasing at low prices, and the decline in phosphate rock is not clear (some operators expect a narrow downward adjustment), so the price of monoammonium phosphate continues to decline in limited space, and the current narrow range adjustment will be maintained in the short term. (Data source: Longzhong Information)
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Please indicate in the following format: Source: Agricultural Resources Herald Author: Li Lingxin
Editor: Chen Xinrui Review: Wang Meihong Producer: Wu Junsheng