On April 26, the quantum technology sector exploded, with many stocks such as Haofeng Technology, Science and Technology Innovation, and Tianhe Defense ushering in a 20% daily limit, and Guodun Quantum, Tongniu Information, and Guoxin Technology followed suit.
On the news side, on April 25, the Institute of Quantum Information and Quantum Technology Innovation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences delivered a 504-bit superconducting quantum computing chip "Xiaohong" to the company, which refreshed the record for the number of bits of superconducting quantum chips in China, and plans to open it to the world through the quantum computing cloud platform.
In addition, Japan's National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) and NVIDIA recently announced a major collaboration to jointly build advanced quantum computing systems, and plan to provide this revolutionary service to enterprises and research institutions around the world from next year, and implement a commercial fee model.
With the continuous acceleration of the practical process of global quantum computing technology, related enterprises in the industrial chain will also usher in new development opportunities.
It promises to usher in a new era of computing
According to the research report of Huatai Securities, under the premise of Moore's Law, the evolution of silicon-based integrated circuit technology is close to the physical limit, and quantum computing is expected to become one of the important solutions for the leapfrog development of computing power in the post-Moore era.
Quantum computing is a new computing paradigm that follows the laws of quantum mechanics for information processing, with qubits as the basic unit, using the principles of quantum superposition and interference to achieve parallel computing, which can provide exponential acceleration for some computationally difficult problems, and is one of the important directions for the leapfrog development of computing power in the future.
For example, a man holding a bottle of mineral water is thrown over his head and falls to the floor in just over 500 milliseconds. The quantum computer only takes 5.4 milliseconds to complete a huge computation - 2 to the 550th power, which is about 1% of the time it takes for the mineral water bottle to be dropped.
Looking to the future, quantum computing is expected to create tremendous economic value in several areas. In the financial sector, quantum computing will promote the development of financial innovation and risk management, and improve the efficiency and quality of financial services. In the chemical and pharmaceutical fields, quantum computing can accelerate the research and development of new materials and the screening of drugs, providing new impetus for industrial development. In the field of transportation and logistics, quantum optimization algorithms can help solve complex transportation and scheduling problems, improve logistics efficiency, and reduce operating costs.
For example, the 2048-bit RSA cipher used by banks would take millions of years to crack with a classic computer. But in 2019, Google predicts that if 20 million qubits are integrated, it can crack the 2048-bit RSA password in less than 8 hours. Therefore, quantum computing may have a subversive impact on national defense security and financial security, and may change people's production and lifestyle.
However, at this stage, the cost of a quantum computer is very high, and the average technology developer is undoubtedly unaffordable. According to the research report of Huatai Securities, the R&D investment of a 400-bit quantum computer also includes hardware and software, algorithm development, maintenance and operating costs, etc., according to our estimates, about 15.45 million US dollars, and the corresponding selling price is 51.5 million US dollars according to 70% gross profit margin.
According to ICV's forecast, at least $16.4 billion will need to be invested in quantum computing by 2027, and the long technological breakthrough period and poor cash flow will pose challenges to the quantum computing industry.
The international academic community generally believes that the commercial implementation of quantum computing is expected to be realized in the next 5-10 years. With the launch of IBM's superconducting quantum chip Condor in December 2023, quantum computing has achieved a breakthrough of 1000+ qubits. According to ICV, the quantum computing industry will enter a period of rapid growth after 2027, and the global scale is expected to reach 100 billion US dollars in 2030.
Global players accelerate their layout
In the view of industry experts, since quantum computing is a field that requires heavy investment, before quantum computing is truly practical, the leading degree in this direction must be closely related to the comprehensive strength of countries and regions. "Objectively speaking, the United States is still playing a leading role, but China has great hopes, whether it is human resources or capital investment, it is expected to catch up in the future. ”
Given the huge potential of quantum computing technology, China has invested more than $15 billion in 2022 to develop its quantum computing capabilities. It is reported that China's investment in the field of quantum computing is more than twice the budget of EU countries for quantum computing and eight times the investment plan of the US government.
In contrast, the United States still has a clear advantage in the field of quantum computing so far. U.S. colleges and universities attract more top experts and industry leaders than universities in other countries, including China. It is worth noting that if the Biden administration repeals the Bayh-Dole Act, which supports public-private partnerships, it will be uncertain whether the United States will be able to maintain its leading position in the field of quantum computing for a long time.
From the perspective of participating companies, overseas companies such as IBM, Google, and Nvidia are mainly the leaders, and startups such as IONQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave that have been listed through SPAC acquisitions have also been born.
The technology of domestic quantum start-up companies mainly originates from university laboratories, and the representative enterprises include: Guodun Quantum, Origin Quantum, Guoyi Quantum, etc. On April 26, the quantum technology sector exploded, and many stocks such as Haofeng Technology, Science and Technology Innovation, and Tianhe Defense ushered in a 20% daily limit.
Haofeng Technology's main business is to provide comprehensive digital transformation solution services from infrastructure to business applications for large customers, and its business mainly focuses on digital finance, digital transformation of large enterprises, government digital innovation and other business fields. The company's subsidiary, Haofeng Pinshi, has the software copyright of the quantum application security service platform, and the company has been committed to the research of quantum security, and has been trying to apply quantum cryptography in financial customers, but it has not yet been productized.
According to the 2023 performance forecast, Haofeng Technology achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 8 million yuan to 12 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.92%-79.94%, and a net profit of 5 million yuan to 9 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, a year-on-year decrease of 71.76%-84.31%.
The main business of Tianhe Defense is the three major business systems of "military equipment", "communication electronics" and "new generation integrated electronic information (Tianrong Engineering)" and five business segments: military equipment, 5G radio frequency, IoT sensing, industry big data and digital ocean. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of about 135 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.95%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.998 million yuan, a year-on-year turnaround.
On March 29, 2024, the owner of Tianhe Defense replied on Interactive Easy that around quantum communication, the company's subsidiaries have conducted preliminary research and development and experiments on ultra-low temperature devices used in quantum communication, focusing on the extremely low temperature devices used in quantum communication, and have carried out extremely low temperature environment experiments on related devices.