In the first quarter, social finance got off to a good start, and banks stepped up to help the real economy

Our reporters Hao Yajuan and Zhang Rongwang report from Shanghai and Beijing

Recently, the financial statistics and social financing data released by the People's Bank of China for the first quarter of 2024 show that RMB loans increased by 9.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing reached 12.93 trillion yuan, both at a high level in the same period in history.

Behind the growth of social finance data is the "good start" of banks to increase credit supply. Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, told China Business News that financial institutions have actively responded to national policies and increased support for the real economy. Bank credit continued to increase, meeting the financing needs of enterprises and individuals, and promoting the growth of social finance.

Interviewees said that under the impetus of prudent monetary policy and active fiscal policy, the social finance data will maintain a good momentum. In the next step, banks should focus on supporting the real estate industry, which is the traditional pillar of the economy, on the one hand, and on the other hand, cultivate and develop new quality productive forces, and support key enterprises that are in line with the self-reliance and innovation orientation of science and technology.

The demand for social financing has slowed down

Regarding the social financing data in the first quarter, Zhang Wenhong, head of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, said that the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in the first quarter was 12.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.61 trillion yuan, which was mainly affected by the high base of the previous year. Judging from the same period in history, the increase in the scale of social financing in the first quarter of this year is still at a relatively high level in the same period in history. From the structural point of view, there are four main characteristics:

First, the pace of credit delivery was stable, and the RMB loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy maintained a reasonable growth. In the first quarter, RMB loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy increased by 9.11 trillion yuan, 1.59 trillion yuan lower than the same period in 2023 but 773 billion yuan higher than the same period in 2022.

Second, government bond financing should maintain a reasonable scale. The net financing of government bonds in the first quarter was 1.36 trillion yuan, although it increased slightly year-on-year, but it was basically the same as the average of the same period from 2020 to 2023.

Third, corporate bond financing has increased. In the first quarter, the net financing of corporate bonds was 1.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 255.1 billion yuan year-on-year.

Fourth, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills in off-balance sheet financing increased year-on-year. In the first quarter, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 198.3 billion yuan and 550 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 202.4 billion yuan and 81.4 billion yuan respectively year-on-year.

Wang Peng analyzed to reporters that the social finance data in the first quarter was at a relatively high level in the same period in history, reflecting the gradual recovery of the mainland economy and the boost of market confidence; The government has increased investment in infrastructure to stimulate economic growth, which has further stimulated the growth of the scale of social finance.

It is worth noting that in the social finance data in the first quarter, RMB loans increased slightly year-on-year, while net financing of corporate bonds increased more year-on-year. In this regard, the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Q1 2024 Macroeconomic Data Analysis Report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") pointed out that although the overall supply of bank credit remained neutral, there were still some enterprises whose financing needs could not be fully met through banking channels, resulting in these needs shifting to the bond market, which in turn promoted the growth of corporate bond financing.

"At present, the demand for social financing has slowed down in the short term, and in the medium and long term, with the continuous easing of domestic monetary policy and the gradual implementation of supporting policies, the process of credit easing is expected to be further accelerated. The report believes that looking forward to the future, driven by factors such as macro policy efforts and expected recovery, the endogenous momentum of the economy is expected to continue to repair, which will support the confidence of enterprises and residents, and the financial data is expected to maintain a good trend. On the one hand, the issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second quarter, and the issuance of special treasury bonds is also expected to begin, and government bonds will become an important support for social financing in the second quarter. On the other hand, the central bank emphasized accelerating financial support for the housing supply system of new productivity, large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, and "market + security", which is expected to stabilize the growth rate of social financing. In addition, with the increase in national fiscal stimulus, the medium and long-term loan financing demand of enterprises is expected to continue to increase.

Financial resources are tilted towards key areas

The reporter noted that many banks achieved a "good start" in credit in the first quarter of 2024. For example, Bank of Hangzhou (600926. SH) released a report showing that the scale of loans in the first quarter increased by 63.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15.5 billion yuan year-on-year, and the "good start" performance was better, mainly due to the contribution of corporate loans.

Driven by policies, banks have stepped up support for key areas and weak links in the real economy, supported the recovery of effective demand for credit, and promoted the reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises.

In terms of financing costs, data released by the central bank showed that the weighted average interest rate of new corporate loans in March was 3.75%, 1 basis point lower than the previous month and 22 basis points lower than the same period last year, and the weighted average interest rate of new personal housing loans was 3.71%, 15 basis points lower than the previous month and 46 basis points lower than the same period last year, both at historical lows.

Li Xifeng, a senior researcher at the R&D Department of China Securities Pengyuan, analyzed that the current real economy has diversified financing channels, and the effective financing needs are easy to meet under reasonable and abundant liquidity. However, in the context of the downward shift of the economic growth center, the return on investment of assets is also gradually declining, and in addition, the debt leverage ratio of households and enterprises is relatively high, and there is less room for continued financing and leverage, which also limits the ability of entities to raise funds.

Judging from the data, the financial team of China Securities Construction Investment pointed out that compared with the average level of the past five years, the credit delivery structure still maintains a trend of "public stability and weak retail". Although credit to the public increased slightly year-on-year under the influence of last year's high base, it is still at a historically high level, and the strength to support the real economy is not weak. The growth of retail credit is still relatively weak, and the effective demand for retail loans still needs to be recovered in the absence of a significant improvement in the income level of residents.

In this regard, the report analyzes that residents' demand for short-term loans is mainly affected by the Spring Festival effect, and the repair of short-term loans is still constrained by the weak recovery of the "employment-income-consumption" cycle, and the role of residents' consumption in stimulating the demand for credit financing needs to be strengthened. In terms of long-term loans to residents, the property market in March was not as good as in previous years, reflecting that residents were cautious about real estate investment, resulting in weak real estate sales, which in turn dragged down the scale of residents' medium and long-term loans.

Zhu Hexin, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that the People's Bank of China has established a credit market department to take the lead in promoting the work of "five major articles." In the next step, we will increase support from various aspects such as policy framework, incentives and constraints, and financial service capacity building. The first is to strengthen top-level design and system planning, and promote the formation of a "1 (overall system design) + 5 ('five major articles' respective measures)" policy system; the second is to guide financial resources to tilt to key areas through incentive mechanisms; third, to encourage financial institutions to give full play to their organizational, management and technical advantages, apply the Internet, big data and other information means, enhance the ability level of service technology, green, small and medium-sized enterprises, improve the adaptability and inclusiveness of financial services, and create a replicable and promotable service model.

Li Xifeng believes that banks should better support the real economy, on the one hand, they should focus on supporting the real estate industry, which is the pillar of the traditional economy, and at the same time control risks, give blood transfusions to high-quality real estate enterprises and "guaranteed delivery" projects in a timely manner, try to slow down the speed of real estate adjustment, and at the same time strive to promote "guaranteed delivery" On the other hand, it is to accelerate the formation of a new quality productivity direction around the main line of high-quality development, and support key enterprises that are in line with the self-reliance and innovation orientation of science and technology, such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and other industries, as well as the industries involved in equipment renewal and trade-in that the state will focus on promoting this year.

"With the country's emphasis on scientific and technological innovation, innovative enterprises such as high-tech enterprises and technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises are worth paying attention to. Manufacturing is an important pillar of the national economy, manufacturing upgrading and intelligent manufacturing is an important trend for future development, advanced manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing and other fields will also be the focus of credit delivery. Wang Peng said.

From the perspective of banks, Ping An Bank (000001. SZ) launched the "Several Measures to Support the Real Economy (2024)", proposing to continue to optimize the layout of the industry and focus on emerging industries. Promote emerging industries such as new manufacturing, new energy, and new life, improve the business capacity of customers in the real economy, increase the promotion of manufacturing, green, science and technology finance, agriculture-related and other fields, build a diversified product and service system with customer-centricity and customize it, and innovate product models; increase the investment of inclusive loans, broaden the breadth of customer group operation, and give full play to the radiation capacity of secondary branches and county-level sub-branches; build a science and technology financial management system, and create a "online + offline" financial service plan for the whole life cycle; take the initiative to make profits to entities, deepen the manufacturing industry, Private enterprises and small and micro customers operate with preferential interest rates and flexible repayment policies to reduce customer financing costs and reduce repayment pressure.