On April 25, at the 2024SMM (19th) Aluminum Conference and the First Aluminum Industry Expo - Electrolytic Aluminum and Raw Materials Forum hosted by SMM, Wang Zuoyou, Director of the International Trade Department of Lianyungang Linhai New Materials Co., Ltd., shared the development and market trend analysis of global petroleum coke and calcined coke.
Introduction to petroleum coke and calcined coke products
Introduction and use of petroleum coke and calcined coke
It introduced the upstream and downstream industrial chain of petroleum coke.
Petroleum coke classification and use
Although petroleum coke is a refinery by-product and cannot be customized, we can classify it:
Sulfur content: low sulfur coke, medium sulfur coke, high sulfur coke
Shape: projectile coke, sponge coke
Usage: carbon grade, fuel grade
It also expounds the raw materials of electrolytic aluminum, the production process of prebaked anode, the application of calcined coke in the iron and steel industry, the application of calcined coke in the titanium dioxide industry, and the application of petroleum coke in the graphite electrode industry.
Capacity and production review
Global delayed coking capacity: In 2023, the global delayed coking capacity will be 714 million tons.
Total global petroleum coke production in 2023: 153 million tons.
It has made a detailed analysis of the coking capacity & petroleum coke production in some parts of the world, the global calcined coke production capacity, the overseas calcined coke production capacity, the calcined coke production capacity in China, the global calcined coke production, the overseas calcined coke production, the calcined coke production in China, and the calcined coke production capacity & output in some parts of the world, and the specific data are as follows:
Supply and demand situation and import and export situation
Review of global electrolytic aluminum production: In 2023, the global electrolytic aluminum production will be 70.51 million tons.
Review of China's electrolytic aluminum production: China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity in 2023 will be 47.25 million tons, and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity in 2023 will be 41.59 million tons.
Global supply and demand situation of petroleum coke for electrolytic aluminum: The global apparent consumption of petroleum coke for aluminum in 2023 will be 38.79 million tons, the total global output of petroleum coke in 2023 will be 153 million tons, and the global petroleum coke consumption of the aluminum industry will account for 25% of petroleum coke production in 2023.
Supply and demand situation of petroleum coke for overseas electrolytic aluminum: The apparent consumption of petroleum coke for aluminum in overseas will be 15.91 million tons in 2023, and the total output of petroleum coke in overseas will be 122 million tons in 2023, and the consumption of petroleum coke in the overseas aluminum industry will account for 13% of petroleum coke production in 2023.
Supply and demand situation of petroleum coke for electrolytic aluminum in China: The apparent consumption of petroleum coke for aluminum in China in 2023 will be 22.88 million tons, and the total output of petroleum coke in China in 2023 will be 31.73 million tons, and the petroleum coke output of China's aluminum industry will account for 72% of petroleum coke production in 2023.
Global supply and demand situation of calcined coke for aluminum: The apparent consumption of calcined coke for aluminum in 2023 will be 29.16 million tons, and the total global production of calcined coke in 2023 will be 37.94 million tons, accounting for 76.8% of the global calcined coke production for aluminum in 2023.
Supply and demand situation of overseas calcined coke for aluminum: The apparent consumption of calcined coke for aluminum overseas in 2023 will be 11.96 million tons, and the output of calcined coke overseas in 2023 will be 12.85 million tons, and the consumption of calcined coke for aluminum will account for 93% of the calcined coke production in 2023.
Supply and demand situation of calcined coke for aluminum in China: The apparent consumption of calcined coke for aluminum in China in 2023 will be 17.2 million tons, and the consumption of calcined coke for aluminum in China will account for 68.5% of the calcined coke production in 2023, and the output of calcined coke in China in 2023 will be 25.09 million tons.
China's demand for calcined coke for anode materials: 2.1 million tons of calcined coke for graphitization of anode materials in 2023, 25.09 million tons of calcined coke production in 2023, and 8.4% of calcined coke consumption for graphitization of anode materials in 2023.
Review of China's petroleum coke imports: China's total petroleum coke imports in 2023 will be 16.01 million mt.
Review of China's low- and medium-sulfur (S<3%) petroleum coke imports: China's medium- and low-sulfur petroleum coke imports in 2023 were 4.12 million tons, accounting for 25.7% of China's medium- and low-sulfur petroleum coke imports in 2023.
Review of China's high-sulfur (S>3%) petroleum coke imports: China's high-sulfur petroleum coke imports in 2023 were 11.9 million mt, accounting for 74.3% of China's high-sulfur petroleum coke imports in 2023.
Review of China's calcined coke exports for aluminum: In 2023, China's calcined coke for aluminum accounted for 1.77 million tons, accounting for 7% of China's calcined coke exports for aluminum in 2023, and 80% of the total exports in 2023 to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, India and Australia.
Market trends and outlook
Supply and demand in the global aluminum market in 2024
In 2024, there will be a small amount of global primary aluminum surplus, which will support the stabilization of prices, of which overseas demand will recover growth, and production will also increase slightly, while China's demand growth will decline and production growth will be limited.
In 2024, the global demand for petroleum coke and calcined coke for aluminum will continue to grow, but the growth rate will be reduced.
China Petroleum Coke Port Inventory
In 2020-22, port inventories fluctuated between 1 million and 2 million tons, accelerated after exceeding 2 million tons in November 2022, reached 5 million tons in June 2023, and then fluctuated around 4 million tons after 4 million tons.
Trends in China's petroleum coke market
In the first half of 2022, petroleum coke rose at an accelerated pace, fluctuated slightly at a high level in the second half of the year, and showed a downward trend at the end of the year.
In the first quarter of 2023, there was a cliff-like decline, a slight rebound after bottoming out in April, and a weak operation in the third and fourth quarters.
The first quarter of 2024 will show a slight upward trend, the second quarter is expected to fluctuate, the overall upward trend, the third quarter will be followed by a downward channel, and the fourth quarter will run at a low level.
China calcined coke price trend
The market trend of calcined coke is basically the same as that of petroleum coke.
The first quarter of 2024 will show a slight upward trend, the second quarter is expected to fluctuate, and the overall upward trend will be, the third quarter will embark on a downward channel after the high, and the fourth quarter will run at a low level.
China's aluminum calcined coke export price trend
Export prices showed an upward trend in the first half of 2022, and the high level fluctuated slightly in the second half of the year.
In 2023, H1 export prices showed a downward trend, and then fluctuated slightly at a low level.
Export prices are expected to decline overall in 2024, with prices falling below $300/mt FOB in the fourth quarter.