#2024北京国际车展#
Author / Pot-wrapped meat under the stars
Edit/Spinach's Starry Sky
Typography / Chocolate under the stars
In the past two years, the popularity of new energy vehicles has gradually subsided, and flying cars/eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft) have a tendency to replace them.
Since the beginning of the year, the capital market has paid attention to eVTOL one after another. Previously, we talked about concept stocks Koyo (002708) and Changyuan Donggu (603950) (related reading: Concept stocks plummeted! The hype game of flying cars became a joke). Today, let's talk about Shangluo Electronics (300975) and Blue Ocean Huateng (300484), which both pulled out the 20cm limit. Take a look at these concept stocks, under the perfect packaging of flying cars, what is the background?
Source: April 24, 2024
First, the frequent hype of flying cars is outrageous
Strictly speaking, it is a distributor of electronic components, mainly acting as an agent for passive electronic components such as capacitors, inductors, resistors and radio frequency devices, as well as active and other electronic components such as ICs, discrete devices, power devices, memory devices and connectors.
From the downstream point of view, Shangluo Electronics is mainly for automotive electronics, consumer electronics, network communications and other industries, of which automotive electronics accounts for about 35% of the total revenue.
Blue Ocean Huateng's main business is new energy vehicle drive products and industrial automation control products. Among them, the drive products of new energy vehicles are mainly electric vehicles and others, accounting for about 60%+ of total revenue.
Source: Straight Flush, Shangluo Electronics (left), Blue Ocean Huateng (right)
In general, whether it is Shangluo Electronics or Blue Ocean Huateng, it does have a little relationship with automobiles.
However, whether it is the consignment of automotive electronic components or the production of electric vehicle motor controllers, what does it have to do with flying cars?
Blue Ocean Huateng replied on the interactive Q&A platform, saying that the company "has set up a relevant team to focus on the research and development of electric aircraft motor controllers".
Refine it, form a team, and be responsible for R&D. Nope.
Source: Interactive Q&A platform - Blue Ocean Huateng
Compared with Blue Ocean Huateng, Shangluo Electronics, which is a dry consignment, has a closer relationship with flying cars.
Shangluo Electronics has a stake in a company that develops eVTOL products, Avis. According to the 2023 annual report, the shareholding ratio of Shangluo Electronics has increased to 14.62%.
And this Yvette is also more competitive, and it is reported that the prototype of the flying car it released has made its first successful flight. The so-called prototype machine is the first batch of machinery manufactured according to the design drawings for testing or mass production prototypes.
After the success of the first flight, EVIT will substantively dock with the airworthiness authorities and go through the airworthiness application process. If you successfully get the airworthiness certificate, I am afraid that it will be a "major benefit" (obtaining the single airworthiness certificate indicates that the single aircraft has been approved by the bureau for airworthiness and is in a safe and usable state).
Source: Interactive Q&A platform - Business Network Electronics
However, whether it is the first flight or airworthiness, flying cars have only taken the first step in the long march at this level. Next, can it be commercialized, and is there any application scenario? As an investor who only holds 14.62% of the shares, when will Shangluo Electronics see the return money?
Since the advent of the flying car concept, no matter what company has made a little progress, it has been a lot of good news. If this continues, the stock prices of companies that have touched the edge have gone up, but where is the market? Where is the performance?
Second, the business network electronic market is weak, and the inventory is facing the risk of falling prices
Putting aside the concept of flying cars and returning to the main business, although Shangluo Electronics and Blue Ocean Huateng are not on the same track, their worrying situation is comparable.
Let's take a look at Shangluo Electronics first.
Shangluo Electronics is a distributor of electronic components, and its downstream is mainly for automotive electronics, industrial control, network communications, consumer electronics and other application fields. In 2023, the revenue of the consumer electronics industry will be -20.98% year-on-year, and the revenue of the network communication industry will be -39.8% year-on-year. Overall, although the revenue of the automotive electronics industry has been pulled upward, the comprehensive revenue still decreased by 9.53% year-on-year.
Source: Flush iFinD-Shangluo Electronics 2023 data
The root cause is mainly the weak terminal demand in the electronics industry. In particular, consumer electronics, after experiencing a short period of explosive growth brought about by the stay-at-home economy, has declined significantly in the past two years.
The weak downstream demand, for agents in the middle link, is not just about affecting revenue.
As an agent, Shangluo Electronics often does not match the production and demand cycle of downstream customers due to the production and supply cycle of upstream original electronic components, so it needs to purchase and stock up in advance.
With the weak terminal demand, it will inevitably lead to the backlog of agents' inventory, and even the risk of price loss.
The data shows that in the past three years, the inventory scale of Shangluo Electronics has increased sharply, and a large amount of asset impairment losses have been provided every year.
Source: Straight Flush - Shangluo Electronics
In 2023, Shangluo Electronics will continue to accrue asset impairment losses of 82.9414 million, all of which are inventory decline losses and contract performance cost impairment losses. This loss has accounted for 1.63% of the total revenue.
At first glance, the proportion of 1.63% is not too high, but the problem is that Shangluo Electronics does not have much profit margin.
Especially in recent years, the market environment has deteriorated, and the gross profit margin of Shangluo Electronics has also been significantly under pressure, with a gross profit margin of only 11.91% in 2023. After deducting more than 80 million asset impairment losses, the non-net profit of Shangluo Electronic is less than 30 million, and the net profit margin is only 0.65%.
As for the flying car business that has pushed Shangluo Electronics to the limelight, the impact on the performance of Shangluo Electronics is nothing more than the investment income level. From the perspective of pulling out investment income, Shangluo Electronics has a posture of losing more and more.
Source: Straight Flush - Shangluo Electronics
Third, Blue Ocean Huateng's revenue has plummeted, and the net profit margin has fallen one after another
Let's take a look at Blue Ocean Huateng.
Judging from historical data, the highlight moment of Blue Ocean Huateng was probably in 2016. In that year, the revenue of just one electric vehicle motor controller was 550 million. However, after 2017, affected by factors such as the adjustment of the subsidy policy of the national new energy vehicle industry and the reaffirmation of the new energy vehicle promotion catalog, the operating income of electric vehicle motor controller products began to decline.
By 2023, the business will only have 200 million revenue left.
Source: Straight Flush iFinD-Blue Ocean Huateng
The main sales area of Blue Ocean Huateng electric vehicle products is commercial vehicles. In 2023, the domestic commercial vehicle sales will be 4.031 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.10%, of which the sales of new energy commercial vehicles will increase by 32.30% year-on-year.
Overall, the industry as a whole is up. However, in 2023, the sales volume of Blue Ocean Huateng electric vehicle controllers will decrease by 39% year-on-year, and the revenue will decrease by 36.30% year-on-year.
According to Blue Ocean Huateng, the decline in its revenue is mainly due to the fact that during the reporting period, major cities in China have basically completed the electrification of buses, and the public transport field has been in the stock market stage, with a decrease in downstream demand and destocking of downstream customers.
So on the other hand, Blue Ocean Huateng is mainly oriented to the bus market, and the growth momentum has been obviously insufficient.
Source: Blue Ocean Huateng 2023 annual report
In addition to drive products for new energy vehicles, Blue Ocean Huateng also has a large part of its revenue from industrial automation control products, including medium and low voltage inverters and servo drives. Among them, the revenue of medium and low voltage inverters in 2023 has accounted for more than 3%.
However, judging from historical data, the revenue of medium and low voltage inverters has also stagnated for many years. In 2022 and 2023, the sales volume of this product will decrease by 17.08% and 12.32% year-on-year, respectively.
Source: Straight Flush iFinD-Blue Ocean Huateng
I don't know what else can such a blue ocean Huateng rely on to grow? Is it possible to count on flying cars?
At present, the flying car is still in the stage of forming a team and being responsible for research and development. Therefore, the only impact of flying cars on performance is R&D expenses. Judging from the data, in 2023, the R&D expense rate of Blue Ocean Huateng has exceeded 11%.
However, while the income is declining and the expenses are increasing, in 2023, the net profit margin of Blue Ocean Huateng will decline again and again, and the non-net profit will only be 15.9294 million, a year-on-year decrease of 73.11% from 59.2405 million in the previous year.
Source: Straight Flush - Blue Ocean Huateng
Not to mention how far the flying car industry can go, for enterprises, deep cultivation will inevitably increase investment in research and development. However, judging from the current profitability of Blue Ocean Huateng, there is not much room for R&D investment.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.