1. Trend review
Today, the three major indexes collectively rose sharply, driven by the resolute purchase of northbound funds and the net inflow of more than 20 billion throughout the day, the market sentiment was fully ignited, the securities sector led the rise, and the Sora concept, computing power and other AI concepts continued to repair the market, and the turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion again.
Before the May Day holiday, the turnover was significantly enlarged and relatively rare, at present, Hong Kong stocks have broken through the early pressure level, with the emergence of the inflection point of market sentiment and the acceleration of the entry to the north, A shares are also expected to hit the 3100 pressure level again, but after today's rush next Monday as a pre-holiday withdrawal day, there may be funds to take profits.
For today's sharp rise in the index, the following factors can be focused on:
1. First of all, we should pay attention to the substantial inflow of foreign capital. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. real GDP in the first quarter grew by 1.6% on an annualized basis, compared with the market expectation of 2.5%, and the preliminary annualized rate of the core PCE price index in the first quarter was 3.7%, estimated at 3.4%, the first quarter-on-quarter acceleration in a year. After the release of the data, the market was worried that the US economy could fall into the risk of stagflation, and on the other hand, further delayed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. U.S. stocks fell across the board. In addition, the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in a range of 0% to 0.1% today, and the dollar rose further against the yen.
In the context of global asset fluctuations, Chinese assets have begun to gain the favor of foreign investors and have begun to have certain hedging attributes. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that A-shares may have a 20% or even 40% upside potential.
Another reason for the sharp inflow of foreign capital is that the market's expectations for the inflection point of the real estate sector are strengthening, with John LamJ, head of real estate research at UBS Greater China, saying in a recent interview: "For the first time after three years of bearishness, we are becoming more optimistic about China's real estate sector thanks to government aid." ”
2. Although the index rose sharply, but the individual stocks did not rise generally, there were still more than 1,000 companies in the two cities that fell, and the rise of individual stocks was mainly concentrated in 0-3%, the performance of the sector was differentiated, and the performance and growth were still the focus of funds.
(1) The more representative is the main capital flow, the securities sector has received a large inflow of main funds, and the banking sector has seen a large outflow of main funds (affected by factors such as the net profit growth rate of Bank of Jiangsu in the first quarter is lower than market expectations), and the positive factors of the brokerage sector include: first, Guolian Securities intends to issue shares to acquire control of Minsheng Securities; second, entrusted by the State Council, Liao Min, vice minister of finance, made a report on the research and handling of the deliberation opinions of the special report on the management of state-owned assets of financial enterprises and the situation of rectification and accountability。 The report mentions that it will focus on building a "national team" in the financial industry and promoting the head securities companies to become stronger and better.
(2) The low-altitude economy will be differentiated in the afternoon, and the funds will flow to other sectors at a high level, but with the landing of the blockbuster meeting and the introduction of more follow-up policies, the plate still has further catalytic expectations, and the specific application side is expected to usher in opportunities.
(3) The computing power sector continues to be repaired, mainly stimulated by two good news, one is that Beijing has issued the "Beijing Computing Power Infrastructure Construction Implementation Plan (2024-2027)". Computing power development plans for more cities are also expected to be introduced in the future.
Second, Nvidia's stock price repaired against the trend yesterday, with news that Nvidia delivered the world's first DGX H200 supercomputer to OpenAI, and it was also reported that Quanta said that servers equipped with Nvidia GB200 are expected to be mass-produced in September, after the market expected the end of the year.
The turnover of the two cities was 1,086.4 billion yuan, an increase of 312.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the turnover returned to one trillion yuan. More than 3,800 stocks rose in the market. Northbound funds unilaterally bought 22.449 billion yuan throughout the day, including 11.323 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and 11.126 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Chart: Changes in the turnover of the two markets in the past 7 trading days
Chart: Net inflow of northbound funds in the past month Data source: Wind data
Second, the performance of the sector
Today's leading industry sector is the sector, and the leading conceptual sector is the conceptual sector.
The industry sector with the largest net inflow of main funds is the sector, and the concept sector with the largest inflow is the concept sector.
3. Pioneer of individual stocks
As of the close of trading on April 26, there were 7 stocks on the board.
The stock with the highest net inflow of main funds is the Industrial Fortune Federation, with an inflow of 1.666 billion yuan, followed by Cialis, with a net inflow of 803 million yuan.
The top five gainers of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect are as follows.
Fourth, market sentiment
1. Playing board height: 5 boards of Aowei communication.
2. Today, the stocks in the two cities rose 3,931 and fell 1,293, with the decline range mainly concentrated between -3% and 0, and the rise range mainly concentrated in 0-3%. The number of companies that rose more than 5%: The number of companies that fell more than 5% was 388:104, compared with 199:116 in the previous trading day.
3. There are 68 daily limits today, 43 last trading day, and the daily limit sealing rate has dropped from 77% to 70%. The average return of individual stocks in the last trading day was 0.92%.
4. Record high stocks:
Today, the stock prices of 8 stocks of Hisense Home Appliances, Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd., Zhongji Innolight, Xinyisheng, Xingqi Eye Medicine, Yutong Bus, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, and Huada Technology closed at a record high (6 stocks on the previous trading day).
5. Frontline opportunities
1. Low-altitude economy
Recently, favorable policies for the low-altitude economy continue to be introduced, and this week's blockbuster meeting is likely to give more support to new productivity sectors such as the low-altitude economy.
Related stocks: Jiangsu Stock Exchange, Zhonghai Zhixin, Wanfeng Aowei, Rice Information
2、CPO
The artificial intelligence sector continues to be repaired, Beijing released the "Beijing Computing Infrastructure Construction Implementation Plan (2024-2027)", NVIDIA GB200 accelerated to the market, and brought continuous demand for CPO.
Related stocks: Xinyisheng, Zhongji Innolight, Taichenguang, Yuanjie Technology
3. Machinery and equipment
Affected by large-scale equipment updates, the machinery and equipment sector is expected to usher in a new round of repair after recent adjustments and market sentiment corrections.
Related stocks: Genesis, Chinatungsten High-tech, Liugong, Yawei shares, Xiamen Gong shares
Sixth, the viewpoint is forward-looking
China Securities Construction Investment: Since March, the prices of the world's major resource products represented by gold, copper and oil have started a round of strong rises. On the whole, there are still supply and demand logic support or varieties that are expected to achieve a good boost in the current round of price increases, mainly including refrigerants, high-end storage, panels, gas, tires, TMA, etc. In the rest of the varieties where there is still excess pressure on supply and demand, if there is no obvious boost effect on the demand side, we should pay attention to the change of the supply side strategy of enterprises, and if we can improve the industry competition pattern through joint production control and price increase measures to boost the price center, the market is expected to have stronger continuity. In addition, based on the path of price increases in 2022, the rise in raw material prices may also drive the demand for price increases for downstream consumer goods such as food and beverages, home appliances, consumer building materials, and home furnishings, but considering that the current increase in raw materials is still small compared with 22 years, and the price sensitivity is strong in the context of weak downstream demand, it is currently expected to be difficult to roll out on a large scale.
Guosheng Securities: The GDP growth rate in the first quarter of the United States was less than expected, and the intensification of inflation cooled consumer and government spending, and the time point of the first interest rate cut will be further delayed, and in the short term, resource prices will remain relatively strong. Domestically, policies to promote the healthy development of the securities market, such as the "National Nine Articles", continue to exert force, and the market remains strong and volatile in a state of shrinkage. The pre-holiday capital is tight, and it is expected to maintain the box shock, and with the return of funds after the holiday and the performance vacuum period in May, the market is expected to rush upwards driven by the weight and enter the dominant pattern of weight and theme dance. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on the blue-chip direction represented by the prefix. Steel, non-silver, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors may be relatively dominant. Growth and technology direction, focusing on the opportunity rotation of technology sectors such as computing power, low-altitude economy, robotics, cultural video, and new quality productivity.