Blinken visits China
On the afternoon of April 25, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Beijing, which is likely to be the most intense high-level interaction between China and the United States in recent times.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to Beijing has attracted much attention, and even before Blinken's departure, the U.S. media released rumors that the U.S. is considering imposing sanctions on Chinese financial institutions, which has increased tensions in U.S.-China relations and sparked a lot of speculation. Some analysts have even suggested that the United States may throw a "financial nuclear bomb" on China and kick some of China's financial institutions out of the SWIFT settlement system like sanctions against Russia. How should we view this news from the US side, and how should China respond to the US threat?
The picture shows the Sino-Russian trading port
Let's look at the first question first, I personally believe that we can evaluate the news released by the US side in two sentences. The first is "borrowing the topic to play", and the second is "bluffing". At a press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on April 23, spokesman Wang Wenbin was asked about this issue. In response, the spokesperson specifically mentioned that in trade with Russia, China has "controlled the export of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations". This also makes clear China's position that China will never fund the war or add fuel to the fire. At the same time, the spokesman also stressed that the normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Russia should not be interfered with or undermined.
If the United States really imposes financial sanctions on China on the pretext of "providing key technologies and products to Russia", we can only say that this is "a crime that wants to be added to the crime". The report of the US Atlantic Council pointed out that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the growth rate of trade with Russia by India, Greece, Turkey, and other countries has far exceeded the growth rate of trade between China and Russia. Since the first day of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States has repeatedly warned China not to export weapons to Russia, but it has to admit many times that the United States does not have relevant evidence. Now that it is suddenly "stirring up cold rice" and making such serious intimidation, it is obvious that the United States is setting up an agenda item and wants to increase its bargaining chips with China.
The picture shows the SWIFT settlement system
Taking 10,000 steps back, even if China really follows the West on the issue of sanctions against Russia, will Sino-US relations be calm? The answer is obviously no. On the contrary, China will only face greater strategic pressure and will put itself in a situation where it will be exposed to the enemy.
The next question is, how serious are the so-called financial sanctions of the United States? To put it personally, this is more like a bluff on the part of the United States. It is true that the United States has imposed SWIFT sanctions on countries such as Iran and Russia, but China's economy is not comparable to that of these countries. China is the largest trading partner of 120 countries and regions, and if the United States dares to impose SWIFT sanctions on China, it will seriously disrupt the global supply chain and trigger opposition from American allies, especially European countries.
In the short term, sanctions may have a knock-on impact on China, but in the medium to long term, the U.S. will only shoot itself in the foot, and doing so will accelerate the de-dollarization of international trade and the popularization of the renminbi settlement system. For the United States, this is tantamount to "killing a thousand enemies and inflicting eight hundred losses on oneself," or it may even worse.
The picture shows the US dollar
In the face of maximum pressure from the United States, China has not sat idly by. Long before Blinken's departure, China had already taken the necessary actions. The U.S. media can build momentum for Blinken, and we must not show weakness either in public opinion or at the negotiating table. Attentive viewers have noticed that a number of Chinese media outlets disclosed last week that China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $22.7 billion in February, which is also the second reduction of positions this year, while Japan and the United Kingdom continue to buy "unsellable" U.S. bonds.
Some netizens believe that China should "throw away" all the U.S. bonds in its hands, which sounds quite relieving, but it is not a wise move. According to public data, China still holds $775 billion in U.S. debt, which is actually an important bargaining chip in China's hands. As the second largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, China should appropriately preserve its deterrent power, which is conducive to maintaining the basic posture of "fighting but not breaking" between China and the United States.