The reason why Cialis has been hovering around 90 is because the current sales data does not support it. Considering that the 6th and 7th weeks are "distorted" due to the Spring Festival holiday, we study the relationship between the weekly sales volume and the stock price of the Cialis series from the 8th week to the 16th week, and we can find that the weekly sales volume and the stock price are basically synchronized.
This shows that whether you believe it or not, big money is priced according to the weekly sales volume of new forces such as Cialis, unless your capital and influence can reverse the market perception, otherwise, you can only follow this kind of play. Moreover, the correlation between weekly sales and stock price is not real-time, there is a time difference of about 1 week, so I will not analyze it separately here.
First, take Li Auto as a reference
We take Li Auto as an example to prove that the linkage between the weekly sales volume and stock price of Celis is not an isolated case, although the stock price and weekly sales of Li Auto cannot guarantee "week-to-week consistency", but from the perspective of long-term trends, they are still consistent. This shows that there should be no problem in extrapolating the stock price from the weekly sales.
Li Auto's weekly sales in the 16th week experienced an unprecedented decline, falling below the lifeline of 5,000 units/week, and Li Auto's stock price also fell below the integer mark of 100 yuan/share. The release of L6 new cars is not very expected, first of all, L6 itself sales have not risen, and the sales of L7, L8, and L9 have fallen, and the sales of MEGA are not as expected, which casts a heavy shadow on the stock price of Li Auto.
Of course, it cannot be ruled out that the policy of price reduction and promotion will take effect, which can stabilize the sales and stock price of Li Auto.
2. Celis sales forecast for the next week
M9 production in the first four weeks of April, according to my estimates, is about 2,100, 4,000, 3,600, 5,400. In terms of deliveries, the number of M9 deliveries in the third week of April was about 3,000 units, which indicates that the time lag between production and delivery is about 1.5 weeks (10 days). As a result, it is roughly predicted that the delivery of the M9 in the fourth week of April (April 22-28) will be around 3,800 units, and the delivery of the M9 next week will be around 4,500 units.
The M7 has clearly bottomed out in terms of orders, production and sales, and this week's deliveries are expected to be no lower than last week's 2,851 units, while the weekly deliveries of the M5 continue to be calculated at 160 units. That is, by next Tuesday, the weekly deliveries announced for this week will be about 6,800 units, and next week it will be about 7,500 units.
I think when the weekly sales of Wenjie will break 9,000 vehicles, it is estimated that Wenjie will stand again at 110 yuan / share, and it will not be a big problem.
3. Summary
So, will this time be very long? I don't think it should be very long, probably around the middle of May, the weekly delivery volume of the M9 should be about 6000 units, and the M7 is about 2800 units, which is almost 9000 units, Yu Chengdong announced that the new M5 will be delivered in batches on May 15, and by the end of May, the weekly delivery volume of the M5 will at least not lose to the M7, that is, at that time to about 130, which is not a big problem.
Yesterday, I told you about patience, in fact, Cialis really doesn't have to wait for a long time, just wait a little bit.