Text: Ikan Finance
Sources: All of the information stated in this article is based on reliable sources, and is detailed at the end of the article
In the first quarter of this year, the United States grew by 1.6%, lower than the previous market expectation of 2.5%, and the mainland grew by 5.3%, so it stands to reason that the economic gap between the two countries should have narrowed.
However, the annualized GDP announced by the United States reached $28.28 trillion, or $7.07 trillion in the first quarter, compared to 29.63 trillion yuan in the first quarter, or 4.17 trillion dollars in the mainland. Compared with last year's difference of $2.39 trillion, the economic gap between China and the United States has actually widened!
The dollar sickle harvest is busy
There are some differences in the statistics of GDP growth between China and the United States, and the growth of the mainland is obtained by comparing the data of the first quarter of this year with the data of the first quarter of last year, which is called the year-on-year growth rate. The growth rate of the United States is obtained by comparing the data of the first quarter of this year ×4 and then comparing it with the data of the whole of last year, which is called the quarter-on-quarter growth rate.
In fact, it is not surprising that US GDP has risen so sharply, as early as the beginning of the year, the United States has already sold a large number of high-yield US bonds, attracting the attention of global financial institutions.
Even if the Fed is still printing money like crazy, the rate of return of nearly 5% is enough for any institution to put its concerns behind, and the sharp rise in U.S. bonds will naturally drive the dollar up. When it comes to international trade, the United States is in a better position.
The dollar not only rose, but also a large number of over-issued, the money poured into the market, but there was not enough goods for the excess currency to flow in the market, so the money arched the price of the US market, patted the butt, turned into the financial market to stir up.
The intention is to use the "leverage" of the dollar to leverage the wealth of other countries' economies, so as to harvest the world, especially Southeast Asian countries.
The depreciation of Southeast Asian currencies is the best proof of this, and currencies such as the renminbi, yen, South Korean won, and Vietnamese dong have all depreciated to varying degrees, and as the "licking dogs" of the United States, Japan and South Korea have been harvested particularly seriously.
The South Korean won has fallen to 1,400:1 relative to the dollar, and the yen has fallen to 155:1, the lowest in Japan in 34 years, and the international market is expected to continue to fall.
And wealth often does not evaporate out of thin air, the value of the disappeared currencies of other countries is only transferred, and the United States uses it to fill the excess US debt, relying on its own military strength and international status, constantly printing dollars, and then letting the world pay, which is also the main reason for the recent poor situation in the world.
China's economy is waiting for the day
In April this year alone, the exchange rate fluctuation between the US dollar and the RMB has reached 1.9%, mainly due to the impact of the appreciation of the US dollar.
U.S. bond interest rates have risen, but in order to stimulate consumption and deal with deflation, the mainland has adopted a relatively conservative interest rate reduction policy, with the purpose of reviving the economy, rejuvenating the market, and maintaining the annual inflation rate at 2~4%.
In fact, everyone can feel that we have been living a tight life recently, because the mainland's current economic center of gravity is focusing on eliminating the mainland's financial risks, and this process will not last long, but it will be very painful during the period.
On the one hand, the repeated impact of the new crown epidemic four years ago has had a huge obstacle to China's economic development, and many non-financial industries have broken their capital chains, resulting in a shortage of local finances.
Internally, the state actively promotes the development of new industries and new production capacity, trades in the old for the new, eliminates backward production capacity, stimulates jobs, creates new consumer demand, and removes a large number of domestic "levers"; externally, we subcontract our own backward production capacity to other countries that need them, build a large economic cycle at home and abroad, and balance the impact of old overcapacity.
On the other hand, the country's financial risks are also closely related to the international environment, in fact, international events can be effectively reflected in the small things around us, international turmoil, the most extensive impact on the domestic price is the rise in the price of oil and gold, the Federal Reserve's frequent interest rate hikes will allow domestic investors to invest money abroad, the most extensive impact on the country is the rise in prices, the rise in unemployment.
However, from the current point of view, the idea of avoiding financial risks first is correct.
In the financial field, the yen and the won plunged, the Argentine peso was wasted paper, the mainland was only affected by fluctuations, and the impact was not great.
In the field of people's livelihood, stable prices are actually the biggest benefit, in the year before last, ordinary eggs have risen to 5 yuan a catty, a simple tea egg also has 2 yuan a, the price of fruits and vegetables has also risen, and now there are different degrees of decline, the price of agricultural products has mostly returned to the level of five or six years ago, or even lower.
Who is king in the economic market
At present, the United States is still a well-deserved world hegemon, but this is more by relying on its own strength to "increase leverage" to achieve, not only has the most military bases, the most national currency settlement areas, but also the most cutting-edge technology, the largest alliance system.
The ebb and flow of the tide is a natural law, but the United States wants to change its life against the sky, no longer has confidence in its own hegemonic status, frantically counterattacks against threatening countries and organizations, and does its best to fish for its allies.
At present, even if the mainland is the second largest economy, the objective gap with the United States cannot be ignored, not to mention that we are still in the "throes of pain" to eliminate financial risks as the United States continues to go crazy.
As long as you do your own thing, surpassing the United States is just a sure result, which is not to be rushed. We should not be complacent and daydream that surpassing the United States is just around the corner, and we should not be full of resentment and feel that China's economic collapse is imminent.
You and I are both witnesses and participants, and our goal is not to surpass any country and become the world's hegemon, but to enable the country and ourselves to achieve long-term development and happiness.
Reference:
"The People's Bank of China Responds to RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Resolutely Corrects Pro-Cyclical Behavior and Resolutely Prevents the Risk of Exchange Rate Overshoot" -CCTV 2024-04-18
"U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter, 'significantly lower than expected'" - Global Times 2024-04-26
"The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar fell to a new low, and the Bank of Japan held a monetary policy meeting" -CCTV news client 2024-04-26
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