Text: Today's Construction Machinery Yan Han
摄影｜Catherine
April 2024
China's construction machinery market
In April 2024, China's construction machinery market index, that is, CMI, was 102.93, a slight increase of 0.73% year-on-year and a decrease of 5.30% month-on-month (according to the CMI judgment standard, the index value in March was fine-tuned at a contraction value of 100 points, and the market still has a certain degree of volatility risk in the short term).
In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the CMI index decreased by 0.35 percentage points, and the month-on-month growth rate deteriorated by 20.96 percentage points, indicating that after April, most domestic markets continued to repair in March and continued to show varying degrees of year-on-year improvement, but the sales orders of new machines in the terminal first-tier market were significantly weaker than that of the previous month. The cyclical volatility of the annual market in 2024 is expected to continue to be disrupted due to factors such as the delay in the start of construction in 2024.
As of April 22, according to the author's grassroots research and cross-analysis of industries closely related to the downstream, it was learned that the operating rates of Northeast China, North China, East China, South China, Central China, Northwest China and Southwest China were 54.00%, 56.63%, 49.17%, 50.01%, 56.94%, 56.83% and 56.00% respectively. Compared with the previous period (April 15), they increased by 3.50, 4.78, 2.45, -1.55, 2.72, 5.16 and 0.79 percentage points respectively. Compared with mid-to-late March and early April, the operating rates of most major regions improved slightly.
In the CMI index, the inventory index for manufacturers increased by 15.40 percentage points over the previous period, and the production index decreased by 4.16% year-on-year, the new orders index for agents increased by -2.60% year-on-year and decreased by 38.54% month-on-month, and the channel inventory index increased by 6.67 percentage points over the previous period, and the user price index for the market decreased by 12.62% year-on-year.
Changes in monthly CMI index values since 2022
According to the data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association a few days ago, in March 2024, a total of 24,980 units of various excavation machinery products were sold, a decrease of 2.34% over the same period last year, of which 15,188 units were sold in the domestic market, a year-on-year increase of 9.27%, and 9,792 units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 16.20%. Among them, the domestic market was 722 units higher than the author's expectations, and the export was 982 units lower than expected, and the actual domestic market in March was in line with expectations.
From the perspective of the market terminal, in the first three weeks of April 2024, the operating hours of excavators monitored in the domestic circulation market decreased by 3.18% year-on-year and increased by 5.24% month-on-month.
From the perspective of increased investment on the demand side, the growth rate of investment in mining industries such as coal and water conservancy has improved, but the improvement of related indicators such as highways and real estate is very insignificant.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March 2024, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) 100042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than the cumulative value from January to February 24.
From January to March, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 6.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. Among them, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 13.9 percent, the investment in public facilities management decreased by 2.4 percent, the investment in road transport increased by 3.6 percent, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 17.6 percent, with growth rates increasing by 0.2, -0.5, -4.7 and -9.4 percentage points respectively.
From January to March, investment in the mining industry increased by 18.5% year-on-year, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from January to February 24. The growth rate of coal mining investment was 32.9 percent, an increase of 32.3 percentage points, the growth rate of ferrous metal mining and dressing investment was 24.8 percent, and the year-on-year growth rate of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing fixed investment was 32.6 percent.
From January to March, manufacturing investment increased by 9.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from January-February 24.
From January to March, the investment in real estate development was 2,208.2 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.5 percentage points larger than that from January to February 24. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 26.0 percent year-on-year, an increase of 1.9 percentage points, and the area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 11.1 percent year-on-year, and the area of new housing construction decreased by 27.8 percent, with the decline rate worsening by 0.1 percentage points and narrowing by 1.9 percentage points respectively.
By region, investment in the eastern region increased by 5.7 percent year-on-year, investment in the central region increased by 4.1 percent, investment in the western region increased by 1.4 percent, and investment in the northeast region increased by 9.6 percent, up by -0.2, -0.1, 5.3 and -4.2 percentage points respectively.
From January to March 2024, the investment in projects with a planned total investment of more than 100 million yuan increased by 11.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than that from January to February. Among them, the investment in projects with a total planned investment of 1 billion yuan and above increased by 13.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.8 percentage points higher than that of projects with a total investment of 100 million yuan and above.
In addition, the cumulative growth of the source of funds for investment in fixed assets improved by 0.4 percentage points from January-February 24 to -5.8%, and the state budget funds increased slightly from 3.4% to 3.5%. The cumulative growth of domestic loans to fixed assets fell from 8.0 percent to 5.2 percent. The cumulative growth of fixed asset investment bonds rose from 41.4% to 46.8%. The utilization of foreign capital in fixed asset investment recovered from -80.9% to -76.6%, and the growth rate of self-raised funds continued to increase slightly to 4.3%.
In fixed investment, the growth of planned total investment in construction projects fell from 6.9% to 5.5%, but the growth of planned total investment in newly started projects recovered slightly from -19.8% to -16.1%.
To sum up, among the sources of fixed investment funds, state budget funds, bonds, and self-raised funds have recovered well, but domestic loans and foreign capital have cooled down in the short term, and the planned investment in new construction projects is still negative.
Judging from China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) in March, the business activity index of the construction industry was 56.2%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the expansion accelerated. Among them, the business activity index of the civil engineering construction industry was 59.8%, which was in a relatively prosperous range, and the civil engineering construction industry continued to maintain a relatively fast construction progress. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 59.2%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that construction enterprises have increased confidence in the development of the industry in the near future.
Comparison of the issuance of government bonds in various provinces and regions in China from January to March 2024 compared with the same period last year
From January to March 2024, the comparison of government bond issuance in various provinces and regions in China shows that Tianjin, Jilin, Zhejiang, Xiamen and Ningbo are growing year-on-year, of which Tianjin, Jilin, Zhejiang and Xiamen all have growth rates of more than 30%.
Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangxi and Fujian all have issuance quotas of more than 50 billion yuan, of which the top four have exceeded 110 billion yuan. From the perspective of funding, the situation in March and April is slightly more obvious than that in February and March.
The sales data in March 2024 and other related index data are included in the monitoring and forecasting data model of China's construction machinery market, and the author predicts that in April 2024, the domestic loader market sales will be 5,268 units, a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year, and the earthmoving machinery represented by excavators and loaders will continue to recover. The forecast data will be updated on a monthly basis based on upstream and downstream economic, investment and sales data, as well as immediate feedback from first-tier markets.
Zhuozhong construction machinery media organization
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