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April is coming to an end, in terms of domestic soybean meal spot, from the analysis of institutional data, at this stage, the soybean meal of domestic oil mills presents a situation of "strong in the north and weak in the south", among them, the price of Tianjin oil mill is 3340 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan compared with yesterday, the price of Shandong oil mill is 3300 yuan, down 30 yuan compared with yesterday, the price of soybean meal of Jiangsu oil mill is 3250 yuan, down 30 yuan / ton, and the price of Guangdong oil mill is 3300 yuan / ton!
However, compared with the high level of about 5000 yuan/ton at the end of August last year, soybean meal "fell sharply", and the price of soybean meal of some oil mills fell by 1730 yuan per ton, and the mainstream oil mills fell by about 34%!
Recently, the soybean meal spot has shown a downward shock, but the decline is average, and the market has a certain "grinding bottom" trend!
On the one hand, the U.S. soybean market, CBOT soybean prices have bottomed out, as of April 24, the price of 1181 cents / bushel, the recent rise of about 9.3%, as the U.S. beans into the concentrated planting period, the market for the weather and soil moisture hype heating up, the international soybean market has a strong trend, for the domestic meal market has a certain support;
On the other hand, recently, the difficulty of soybean sales in Brazil is weak, the concentrated sales cycle of soybeans in Argentina has not yet started, the discount price of soybeans in Brazil is relatively strong, and the cost of imported soybeans in China is still high, which also supports the strong performance of spot soybean meal, and the further decline in prices is insufficient!
In the domestic market, this month, imported soybeans have entered the port, but the scale is relatively moderate, among them, the northern port soybean arrival is slow, the inventory level of oil mills is low, the operating rate is weak, and the inventory level of soybean meal is low, which also has a certain support for the market!
Today, the price of soybean meal is showing a low pull situation, however, according to the agency's forecast, the import of soybeans in May or will reach 11 million tons, and the level of soybeans entering the port in June will also exceed 10 million tons.
According to the analysis of the agency, recently, by the slow increase in soybean arrivals, the operating rate of domestic oil mills has gradually rebounded, and the average weekly soybean crushing volume has also rebounded to about 1.9 million tons, as of last week, the soybean inventory in the domestic port was 4.85 million tons, an increase of 235,000 tons from last week, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 3.557 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 442,500 tons!
With the massive soybeans entering the port in May, the soybean inventory level of the port and oil mills may accelerate the accumulation, the operating rate of oil mills in the north and south regions will also be greatly increased, and the soybean meal supply pattern may be greatly improved!
Personally, I believe that although the domestic soybean imports have increased significantly, the downward pressure on soybean meal has gradually emerged, but in the short term, due to the slow accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills, and the strong soybean discount price in Brazil, the cost of imported soybeans is high, and the space for the decline in soybean meal spot prices may be limited. However, with the concentrated export of South American soybeans, the Brazilian soybean discount quotation may gradually decline, and the market may have a slow downward trend!
1 ton fell 1730 yuan, soybean meal "fell sharply", a large number of soybeans arrived in Hong Kong, the test of soybean meal has just begun!