On April 24, 2024, according to the China Manned Space Engineering Office, Shenzhou-18 will be launched at 20:59 on April 25.
In recent years, the speed of China's aerospace development has surprised the United States and Western countries. "The number of rocket launches is also one of the ways to measure China's progress. In the global space launch activities, China and the United States have emerged, and other countries have been significantly widened. Brad Tucker, an astrophysicist at the Australian National University, told Southern Weekend, "If you add up Russia, which ranks third, followed by India and Japan, there are not as many as the United States and China." ”
However, some researchers believe that in recent years, there has been an influx of "new players" on the track of global space competition. The global space competition is not just between China and the United States.
On April 17, 2024, at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, the Shenzhou-18 manned spacecraft and the Long March-2F Yao-18 carrier rocket assembly were transferred to the launch area. (Visual China/Photo)
"Space Race"
At a time when China's space industry has achieved remarkable results, the United States is once again singing the old tune of the "space race."
On January 17, 2024 local time, just one day before the successful docking of China's space cargo spacecraft Tianzhou-7 with the Tiangong space station, NASA, government officials and some members of Congress gathered in the U.S. House of Representatives to discuss China's "space threat".
They called on the US Democratic administration and Western strategic allies to "win" the "space race" of the 21 st century.
On February 29, 2024, U.S. Space Command Commander Stephen Whiting claimed at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that China is developing military capabilities in space at an "astonishing rate" and has "dramatically improved its ability to monitor, track, and target U.S. and its allies' forces on Earth and in orbit."
He said space had become a "growing security challenge" and listed China as a "major threat" in the space sector.
On March 29, the New York Times published an article titled "China-US Space Race Extends to Satellites, Potential U.S. Risks Raise Concerns," saying that the U.S. and China are waging a new race in space and on Earth, and that "the U.S. is losing this race."
"The 'space threat theory' of the United States has never stopped. Brad Tucker, an astrophysicist at the Australian National University, said in a recent interview with Southern Weekly, "It's hard not to be reminiscent of the original 'Star Wars'." ”
As early as more than 60 years ago, then-US President John F. Kennedy predicted: "Whoever controls space controls the earth."
At the end of the Cold War, then-US President Ronald Reagan proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative ("Strategic Defense Initiative" in a speech in the hope of changing the strategic balance of the Cold War by proposing the SDI plan to force the Soviet Union to make unbearable investments in military technology, thereby weakening its economic and political power.
While there are still differing opinions and interpretations in academic circles about the exact extent of the SDI program's impact on the Soviet economy, "it is undeniable that the United States, as one of the pioneers in space, has held the leadership and dominance of space since the end of the Cold War." Tucker said.
Yang Zhen, deputy director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said, "With the end of the Cold War, China began to become a target for the United States. ”
"Since Biden took office, he has always wanted to provoke a 'new Cold War' with all-out confrontation with China, and this 'space race' should be part of this plan," Yang Zhen said. ”
He analyzed that today's U.S. manufacturing industry has been hollowed out, and China is a different country from the Soviet Union - the Soviet Union's industrial output value was only less than 70% of the United States at its peak, while China's industrial output value exceeded the United States, Japan, and Germany combined, and China's total manufacturing output value accounted for 35% of the world's total manufacturing output in 2023, and the United States accounted for 12%. "In a space race with such a country, the United States will not get the desired results as it did during the Cold War".
More importantly, Yang Zhen stressed, "China does not want to compete for hegemony like the Soviet Union, so there is no possibility that China and the United States will repeat the mistakes of the United States and the Soviet Union, either in terms of the will of the two countries or the capabilities of both sides." ”
China's aerospace "exceeds expectations"
Bai Mengchen, a military commentator, told Southern Weekend that the threat theory in the satellite field is similar to last year's return to the moon race and reusable spacecraft, and is a means for US politicians to pass the budget.
However, China's rapid progress in space in recent years has indeed "surprised" the United States.
"Space missions take years to design and develop, and it's common to go over budget or beyond expectations over time. Tucker cites NASA's James Webb Space Telescope, which is more than a decade behind schedule and $9 billion over budget. And the Chinese space program is one of the few that not only meets the deadline, but beats it.
"The China Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSA) announced the completion of China's first space station, Tiangong, within a year, but it ended up taking only 11 months and began operation in late October 2022. This efficiency is beyond expectations. Tucker said.
The number of rocket launches is also a way to measure China's progress.
According to the Blue Book of China's Aerospace Science and Technology Activities (2023) released on February 26, 2024, China's aerospace industry will carry out a total of 67 launch missions and develop and launch 221 spacecraft in 2023, setting a new record for China in terms of the number of launches and the number of spacecraft, ranking second in the world.
In 2023, China's aerospace industry has completed a series of major breakthroughs. China's manned space program has successfully completed 30 launch missions in a row, and the "30 battles and 30 victories" highlight the reliability and stability of China's manned space program. In a report on June 1, 2023, the French newspaper Le Figaro described that "China is an increasingly important and stable presence in the field of manned spaceflight".
"China has built a space station with high efficiency, and the retirement of the International Space Station is imminent, and the future is still a 'fog'. Russia has not committed itself to continuing cooperation with the United States beyond 2024. Eventually, China will become the only country with a space station orbiting the Earth. Tucker said.
Tucker also said that while China is catching up with the United States, it is also developing new technologies that the United States does not already have. "For example, using Chang'e-4 and the upcoming Chang'e-6 to explore the far side of the moon. In a published paper, he mentioned that lunar resources exist in large quantities on the far side of the moon, and China is currently the only country that has successfully landed on the far side of the moon.
Regarding new technologies, Yang Zhen also mentioned to Southern Weekend that China has made many achievements in high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and quantum communications.
"This will also greatly help China's space industry, because of narrow considerations and prejudice, the United States is determined to launch a 'space race' against China, stifle China's space industry, and prevent China from becoming a space power on a par with the United States." He said.
According to a number of scholars interviewed, the United States, as a global superpower, has always sought to maintain its global strategic position and influence. As a new strategic highland, the space domain has important military, political, and economic value, and by maintaining a leading position in the space field, it can maintain the foundation of US hegemony, so it "brooks no interference by other countries."
On August 29, 2019 local time, U.S. President Trump announced the establishment of the U.S. Space Command at the White House, with four-star Air Force General John Raymond as the first leader. (Visual China/Photo)
Taking the Gulf War as an example, the US military used almost all of its military satellites and some of its commercial satellites in orbit to seize the initiative in the war. During the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, "Starlink" (Star link) used as intelligence support to provide effective help for Ukraine's precision strikes, and Russia suffered several major losses, mostly because Starlink acted as the "eye" of Ukraine's long-range strike force.
Tucker, a scientist, told Southern Weekend that the earth's resources are limited, and humanity must go to space as soon as possible to obtain more resources to achieve sustainable development goals.
On March 22, 2024, Tucker mentioned the use of the moon's resources in the article "China - the new second space power". "India's Chandrayaan-1 mission discovered the presence of large amounts of water ice on the moon, especially at the moon's south pole. These water resources can be broken down into hydrogen (H₂) and oxygen (O₂) through a simple chemical process, which provide astronauts with water, air, and the building blocks of rocket fuel. ”
In Bai Mengchen's view, "the United States has established a system in long-term practice to confuse the people and Congress by hyping up and magnifying the so-called gap. ”
According to public information in the United States, the U.S. Space Force was only established in 2019, and the budget for fiscal year 2021 is only $15.4 billion, and it will reach $30 billion in fiscal year 2024, doubling the growth. The FY 2025 budget stands at $29.4 billion, even with a slight decline.
The space landscape is diverse
In recent years, a new wave of exploration has been set off in the international space field, and all of them hope to grasp the secrets and resources of space "one step ahead". So far, many countries have had their own satellites in space, among which the United States, Russia, China, France, India, Japan and other countries and the European Space Agency (ESA) have the ability to launch satellites.
Zhang Xuefeng, a military expert, pointed out that the complicated international changes have also been mapped into space, making the space pattern show a trend of diversification.
Zhang Xuefeng believes that Russia still maintains a high launch frequency and reliability, and plays an important role on the International Space Station, but "now Russia lacks funds, and its overall strength has greatly declined."
In recent years, Russia has suffered "repeated setbacks" in its space development, and has suffered heavy losses in a number of accidents such as rocket explosions, satellite disconnection, and probe failures.
The press service of the Russian State Space Corporation announced on August 20, 2023 that the Luna-25 probe deviated from its design orbit and collided with the lunar surface due to the deviation of the pulse command parameters from the calculated value, and it has "ceased to exist".
The BBC reported on August 21 that the failure of the Luna-25 mission meant that Russia's position in the field of space exploration was threatened.
"Russia is currently focusing on maintaining its space capabilities, while seeking key breakthroughs in an attempt to use space superiority to ensure national security and promote economic development. Zhang Xuefeng said.
In July 2020, the space agencies of China and Russia confirmed cooperation on the International Lunar Research Station, in March 2021, the Chinese and Russian governments signed the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Construction of an International Lunar Research Station, and in April 2021, the Joint Statement of the China National Space Administration and the Russian State Space Corporation on Cooperation in the Construction of an International Lunar Research Station was issued, which demonstrated the confidence and determination of China and Russia in cooperation in the lunar and deep space fields.
At a time when Russia's dream of landing on the moon again was shattered, India, a "rising star", began to emerge in this round of the "space race".
India launched the improved Chandrayaan-3 probe on July 14 and finally landed successfully on the lunar surface on August 23, the Guardian reported on August 23, 2023. India became the fourth country to make a soft landing on the moon after the United States, China and the Soviet Union, and the first country to land a probe on the south pole of the moon, marking India's entry into the ranks of space powers.
Since then, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has issued a statement on December 4, 2023, saying that the propulsion module of the Chandrayaan-3 probe has returned to Earth orbit after completing its mission to the Moon, "indicating that India can restart the relevant equipment on the Moon."
Over the past decade, India has made amazing achievements in the field of space. Zhang Xuefeng said that India, as one of the big countries, needs to make key breakthroughs in a certain field to meet the needs of domestic social and economic development, and this is also an inevitable choice for it to seek superiority in the international community.
As the "second echelon" of the top ranking, Europe's performance in this "space race" is also worth paying attention to.
Yang Zhen said, "In today's aerospace strategic pattern, China, the United States and Russia are the first echelon, while Europe and Japan and other countries constitute the second echelon. As a result, Europe has a very ambivalent mentality about the 'space race' – on the one hand, it wants to actively participate, and on the other hand, it is worried about the status quo of backwardness. ”
The participation of European countries in international space exploration and cooperation projects through the European Space Agency (ESA) is a complex attitude of competition and cooperation.
The European Union's Galileo satellite navigation system aims to reduce dependence on the United States' GPS system. Faced with competition from the United States and China in space exploration, Europe's strategy is to seek opportunities to cooperate with the two space powers while maintaining its own independence in space exploration.
According to a report by the French newspaper Les Echos on February 14, 2023, the satellite constellation is the third satellite constellation construction plan proposed by the European Union after Galileo navigation and Copernicus observation constellation, which will provide EU countries with an independent broadband distributed satellite network for military, government agencies and civilian use. Bai Mengchen believes that "in the face of the 'space race' triggered by the US Starlink program, European countries want to maintain their independent status. ”
In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan has a long-term plan and is gradually advancing its space strategy.
At the end of 2022, the Hakuto-R lunar lander attempted a soft landing on the lunar surface on April 26 after months of trekking, but crashed because it deviated from the landing site. Previously, Japan's first lunar probe, Hospitability, had abandoned the moon landing in November 2022 due to failure to establish communication with the ground.
But the Japanese side did not lose heart, and on September 7, 2023, Japan's third small probe to challenge the moon landing took off on an H2A rocket. In January 2024, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) announced that the SLIM probe had successfully landed on the moon.
"Japan's current direction of development is to maintain its independence, and it needs to maintain its own independent space reconnaissance capability, space-based forces in spaceflight, and get rid of excessive dependence on the United States. Zhang Xuefeng added.
In addition to attempts to land on the moon, there are a number of other deep space exploration projects around the world.
On April 14, 2023, the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the Jupiter Ice Satellite Explorer (JUCIE), which is scheduled to take eight years to start a journey to Jupiter, arriving at Jupiter in 2031 to explore Jupiter and its large moons covered by heavy ice, focusing on the presence of liquid water in the latter and assessing the possibility of life.
NASA's Psyche probe launched in October of the same year and is expected to reach the vicinity of the asteroid Psyche between Mars and Jupiter in 2029. The asteroid, which is rich in nickel-iron and is considered by NASA to be a remnant core of an ancient planet that closely resembles the Earth's core, could help scientists understand how the core of the Earth and other terrestrial planets formed.
Both Zhang Xuefeng and Bai Mengchen said that aerospace forces play an important role in modern international relations, which not only reflects a country's scientific and technological strength and economic level, but also has a far-reaching impact on international politics, economy, security, diplomacy and other fields.
"If a big country does not have independent space launch capabilities and space operation capabilities, its influence in the international community will be greatly reduced. Zhang Xuefeng said.
Global aerospace is booming
In recent years, space has not only been the domain of the "national team", but has gradually opened its doors to various stakeholders around the world. The global commercial aerospace industry is developing rapidly and has become a strategic emerging industry that has attracted much attention.
According to the latest statistics from the American Satellite Industry Association, since 2014, the revenue scale of the global aerospace industry has continued to grow, and the total revenue of the global aerospace industry in 2022 will be 384 billion US dollars. Among them, the total revenue of the satellite industry is 281 billion US dollars, accounting for 73% of the global aerospace industry revenue, mainly including satellite manufacturing income, launch service industry income, satellite service industry income and ground equipment manufacturing income.
"The influx of new companies has broken the monopoly of traditional companies. "They promote technological innovation and cost reduction." ”
SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, is one of them.
In the past few years, SpaceX, with the support and cooperation of the U.S. government, has achieved a series of remarkable results: the development of the Falcon 9 rocket, the development of the Falcon Heavy rocket and other star products. Its new business models such as "Starlink" broadband private network communications, satellite launches, and commercial manned spaceflight and delivery have broadened the application scenarios of the commercial space industry. At the same time, other private companies such as Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic have begun to develop suborbital and orbital space tourism services, further broadening the scope of the space industry.
"The development of commercial aerospace in the United States has also had a huge impact on military aerospace and promoted the transformation and application of new technologies to military aspects. Bai Mengchen said.
In recent years, China's commercial space industry has also grown rapidly with strong government support.
According to statistics reported by the People's Daily on March 28, 2024, the number of new enterprises in China's commercial aerospace field in 2023 will be 113272, an increase of 28.95% from 87,844 in 2022. Among them, 43% are rocket manufacturing enterprises and 35% are satellite manufacturing enterprises.
According to the article "Some Thoughts on the High-quality Development of Commercial Aerospace in the Mainland" released by the China Remote Sensing Application Association in 2022, since its full launch in 2015, China's commercial aerospace has closely followed the world's most advanced level represented by the United States, and has formed a good trend of comprehensive development of commercial launch vehicles, satellites and their applications, deep space exploration and other fields, and the acceleration of the formation of industrial ecology. "However, compared with the rapidly forming leading enterprises in the United States such as SpaceX and Blue Origin, there is still a significant gap between China's commercial aerospace companies in terms of technology level, scale, business service capabilities, and business model innovation, and there is a risk of being widened by the generation gap. The report said.
Other major world countries are not far behind.
In 2022, the British Ministry of Defense issued a new version of the "National Defense Space Strategy", requiring the government to cooperate with the space community and the financial community to maximize the achievement of the national space strategic goals; the positioning of space in the "About the Russian Federation's Space Program 2016-2025" announced by the Russian Space Agency has changed from the original militarization to the development of military-civilian integration, aiming to increase the civilian rate of space technology, while innovating the core development momentum, and bringing greater efficiency to the national economic development; The German Federal Government's Space Strategy encourages the involvement of the private sector in the provision of services such as Earth observation, communication and navigation.
Zhang Xuefeng said that the participation of "non-governmental forces" can complement the "national team" and form healthy competition, which not only increases the diversity and vitality of space activities, but also brings new challenges and competition.
Southern Weekly Contributing Writer Lu Xiao
Editor-in-charge: Yao Yijiang