The United States has multilateral or bilateral military treaties with more than 50 countries and regions in the world, provides military assistance to 40 countries and regions, and has foreign aid military training programs with more than 90 countries and regions, including Africa.
It is no wonder that the United States has such a huge influence in the world through so many channels militarily, extending its influence to all regions of the world, with 800 bases and facilities overseas.
In addition, the United States can also try to win the cooperation of some countries, such as Southeast Asian countries, as necessary, in order to isolate China or create some trouble for China. The United States is experienced in this area.
Even if these countries are not allies of the United States, the United States most likely uses military cooperation to win over these countries. This is because military affairs are the old profession of the United States and the embodiment of American hegemony.
Moreover, the United States has a variety of tricks, and it can use military exercises, rescue at sea, anti-piracy, anti-smuggling, and even direct display of military strength to invite some countries to board US aircraft carriers, or high-ranking military officers of some countries to ride US aircraft carrier-based planes to pass the addiction of aircraft carrier steam catapults.
Just imagine, in the past, the United States claimed to be the world's number one military power and a global maritime hegemon, and invited some countries to board the US aircraft carrier to visit, to go or not?
Most countries will choose to participate, and see the US aircraft carriers, US Aegis destroyers, few countries will not be tempted, just like getting the opportunity to participate in the rich banquet.
In the same way, when the United States sends an invitation to participate in a U.S.-led naval and air military exercise, will it participate?
1 Vietnam applied for BRICS membership
But even if there are many tricks, even if it is a rich party, it will be powerless.
Some time ago, according to a report by Russia's "Izvestia" on the 11th, the Vietnamese Embassy in Russia told Russian media that Vietnam intends to join the BRICS and is seriously studying the relevant issues and participation situation.
In fact, before that, the South African Foreign Minister also said that Vietnam hopes to join the BRICS.
This news has several special meanings.
First, this means that although the United States has actively mobilized Southeast Asian countries in the past few years, hoping that these countries will side with the United States, Vietnam still has to choose the route of developing together with China, at least not with the United States.
In particular, since Biden took office in 2021, he has continuously sent senior officials to visit Southeast Asia, and even US Vice President Harris has personally visited Southeast Asian countries. But these Southeast Asian countries, with the exception of the Philippines, have remained unmoved.
In 2022, the Biden administration proposed a new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to draw a big pie for Southeast Asian countries, but it still can't work.
With a population of 98 million and a GDP of about US$430 billion, Vietnam has the potential to grow among emerging countries. If Vietnam does apply to join the BRICS, it will have an exemplary effect, and Indonesia, which has been hesitating and considering it before, is likely to follow up and also apply to join the BRICS.
This also means that the Biden administration's new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework will not work and can almost be taken off the shelves.
2 The U.S. does not have the capacity to integrate economic frameworks
In the fall of 2021, when U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo first proposed the idea of a new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, we judged that it would not work, and it was just a slogan.
Because the United States is unwilling and unable to give real beef to Southeast Asian countries, and India is cunning in business investment, not to mention the so-called Indo-Pacific countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.
Even if the United States is sincere in promoting the development of the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, what does the United States rely on? It is not that we underestimate the United States, but that the economic system of the United States is different from that of China.
Although the United States has a large domestic consumer market and a large volume of trade imports, the United States is a highly service-oriented economy that lacks a complete supply chain and relies only on some high-end industries and consumer markets, which cannot effectively integrate the economic forms of different countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
This can be seen from the fact that the United States has not been able to successfully integrate an industrial chain that can rival China's outside China since former US President Donald Trump first proposed decoupling from China's economy in August 2019.
After Biden took office in 2021, he proposed friendly shoring and nearshoring policies, but he still could not successfully build supply chains outside of China.
In particular, China's success in moving to the middle and high-end industries of shipbuilding, electric vehicles, and batteries and solar cells is not meaningful for the decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies, nor the new economic framework.
If you really want to talk about the integration of the industrial chain, there are no conditions and capabilities like China in the world. China covers the domestic consumer market, parts, raw materials and end products, coupled with huge capital operation and infrastructure capacity, China is the only country in the world with the ability to fully integrate the industrial chain and economic development, not the United States.
Third, Vietnam has territorial disputes with China, especially the sovereignty of islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and has also been at war with China, but still expresses its willingness to join the BRICS, which in itself is of extraordinary significance.
Not to mention the 1979 self-defense counterattack against Vietnam, in 2014, Vietnam and the Philippines, driven by the United States, both Vietnam and the Philippines claimed sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea to China.
In the spring of 2014, Vietnam repeatedly sent fishing boats to harass China's oil exploration facilities in the Paracels in the South China Sea, and engaged Chinese coast guard vessels in the fight. There used to be tensions between the two countries, and there were even popular riots, with thugs smashing foreign-owned factories.
As a result, Vietnam has actively reorganized its armaments and purchased advanced weapons from Russia, such as Kilo-class submarines, in an attempt to build a naval force to counter China in the South China Sea.
Soon, however, tensions between the two countries eased a year later when the Vietnamese government's attempt to ease tensions between the two countries was met by a visit to Beijing by high-ranking and high-ranking Vietnamese Communist Party leaders.
Why did Vietnam, which had fought naval and land wars with China in the past, not accept the instigation of the United States, and finally chose to improve relations with China and reduce their antagonism?
Vietnam and China have been neighbors for thousands of years, and Vietnam understands very well that this is a relationship that cannot be moved away or changed. China is so powerful that instead of making trouble with China, it is better to improve relations with each other and use China's market and technology to develop its own economy.
What can Vietnam gain if it insists on making trouble with China? Militarily, it will not be able to defeat China, and in the past 2,000 years, Vietnam has had many conflicts with China.
As a result, Vietnam understands the Chinese proverb - the truth of toasting and not eating and punishing wine, and also understands that those who know the times are handsome. There are benefits to be gained from improving relations with China, but if not, it is to drink penalty.
3 Toast without eating, eating and drinking
Speaking of which, it is worth mentioning that some people may think that China's "toast without eating and punishing wine" is similar to the "stick + carrot" of the United States.
Although similar, the substance is very different. "Toasting without eating and drinking" is "respect" first, when the other party is a friend. Only when the other party is not interested, will they come up with strong measures. When the other party accepts the "toast", it means that they are friends, and I will not bully you because of this, and there may even be benefits.
Isn't that the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" proposed by China to the neighboring countries in the South China Sea and the joint development of resources in the South China Sea? China respects you as a friend, and we can work together to develop and share resources. Otherwise, with China's current strength, if it does not give up, what will these countries get?
However, the "stick + carrot" of the United States is different, and it proves that the United States has used its past methods to first demand that the other side give in and accept the conditions and frameworks set by the United States, otherwise the stick will wait.
For example, Section 301 of the well-known Foreign Trade Act of the United States in the past always requires the trading counterparty to set limits on itself first, otherwise the United States will greatly raise tariffs, impose anti-dumping duties, and even restrict imports. The so-called self-imposed limits are also varied, including currency exchange rate appreciation, export quotas, and the purchase of American products.
Not to mention that Vietnam has also been more or less influenced by Confucian culture, China pays attention to the first salute and then the soldiers, and Vietnam understands the truth that it is not too much. Vietnam is a country that has gone through a revolution and fought a civil war, and it will not do China any good to be tough. Vietnam also understands this.
Of course, Vietnam is not without struggle, evaluating and re-evaluating between China and the United States, and carefully considering it for a long time before slowly leaning towards China.
And the United States has not worked Vietnam, the most typical, the largest one is in September 2023, when US President Joe Biden personally visited Vietnam after attending the G20 summit held in India. During that visit, Biden wrote a "big check" promising that the United States would provide funds to help Vietnam develop its semiconductor industry.
What a moving check, tempting enough!
It has to be said that the United States is very shrewd in this move. In 2022, the United States will build a chip quadripartite alliance and successfully pull South Korea's Samsung and TSMC to invest and set up factories in the United States. It also passed the "Chips and Science Act" and invested heavily in the semiconductor industry. As a result, Biden also claimed that the United States has successfully built and controlled the global semiconductor industry chain.
At this time, it is not tempting to take the opportunity to show Vietnam the tempting pie of developing the semiconductor industry?
Sure enough, Vietnam was moved and announced that it would upgrade its relations with the United States.
However, the bad thing is that the Biden administration often does not keep its word, always drawing a big pie, but there is nothing substantial. The Biden administration has many such cases, and the U.S. version of the Belt and Road Initiative - Building Back Better World - Isn't it just a pie? If this continues, Biden will soon become a seller of pancakes (flatbread).
When the Biden administration got the elevation of political relations between the United States and Vietnam, it looked back and forgot about it. Vietnam waited and waited, and realized that something was wrong, and then suddenly woke up.
Frankly speaking, the chip shortage in 2021 is just an illusion, which is used by the United States as an excuse to require major semiconductor manufacturers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to hand over their trade secrets in preparation for the future chip quadripartite alliance and the construction of the semiconductor industry chain in the United States. In the second year of 2022, where will the chip shortage come from?
Coupled with the increase in China's chip self-production rate, there will only be a surplus of semiconductor production capacity outside China, and there will be no share of Vietnam at all. Not to mention that Vietnam does not have the conditions for the development of the semiconductor industry, even if it does, it will depend on whether India agrees, Europe and Japan.
The United States launched a chip war against China, and all major economies want to develop their own chip industries.
Finally, after several temptations and inquiries, Vietnam woke up, otherwise it would really be sung: I waited until the flowers were grateful!
However, when the raw rice is cooked and the rice is ripe, Vietnam has already announced that it has upgraded its substantive relations with the United States, and it is not good to regret it at this time, so the relationship between the United States and Vietnam will "regress", so it has no choice but to release the news of joining the BRICS through the Vietnamese Embassy in Russia.
On the one hand, Vietnam and Russia have good relations, and in addition to arms sales, Vietnam and the Soviet Union also had a military alliance in the last century.
On the other hand, after Russia launched its special military operation against Ukraine in 2022, it has actively operated de-dollarization and promoted the expansion of the SCO and BRICS.
Through Russia's mouth, it can also balance the dissatisfaction of the United States and build momentum for Vietnam's accession to the BRICS, which is tantamount to indirectly informing the United States.
4 Frequent high-level interactions between China and Vietnam
Since March 22, a delegation of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the Vietnamese Foreign Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister and the Chairman of the National Assembly have visited China.
Just two days after the end of this wave of high-level interactions between China and Vietnam, the Russian media reported that Vietnam was interested in joining the BRICS.
Not only that, Vietnam Czech Airlines signed a contract with COMAC to purchase C919 large aircraft.
5 Conclusion
Although the BRICS will join the BRICS in 2023 through Argentina's application, the new Argentine government has chosen a pro-American line and rejected the BRICS, which is equivalent to the United States winning back.
However, the measures taken by the new Argentine government are destined to weaken the country's strength in the future. A weakened Argentina, even if it is pro-American, is not very useful to be pro-NATO. On the contrary, Vietnam's inclination towards China from now on is the real plus, and China will be able to strengthen its relations with Southeast Asian countries.
Vietnam is an emerging growth economy with development potential. In recent years, although the United States has strengthened its relations with Vietnam, due to the lack of credibility of the United States, Vietnam, which originally wanted to curry favor with both sides, has gradually recognized the reality and has become closer and closer to China.
In addition to China's heavy investment in Vietnam, there was a shortage of electricity in Vietnam last year, which affected industrial production. Thanks to the friendly relations between the two countries, the Chinese government also transmits electricity to Vietnam to support Vietnam's industrial production.
The choice between toasts and penalties in China, and sticks and carrots in the United States, I believe that Vietnam should become clearer and clearer.
Of course, it will depend on the final outcome to be able to conclude that Vietnam will not fall to China overnight. But in short, Vietnam can be seen clearly.
Russia holds the rotating presidency of this year's BRICS meeting, and this year's BRICS summit is worth looking forward to!
That's all for today's analysis and reasoning, we'll see you next time!