原文作者： CoinShares
Source: Medium
Compiler: Golem
This article was written by CoinShares researcher Matthew Kimmell ahead of the Bitcoin halving, and the core idea is that Bitcoin's transaction fees can offset the impact of the halving on miners. The first half of the article predicts that when Runes goes live, miners' fee income will reach at least 150 BTC/day (in fact, the first day of the line is 1070 BTC/day, and it has not fallen below 150 BTC every day so far), and the second half mainly explains that in addition to Runes, there are 3 other transactions that can increase miners' income.
Because the first half of the original article is mainly a prediction after the halving, it is outdated, so it will not be compiled in this article. This article mainly extracts the second half of the original article Matthew Kimmell believes that in addition to Runes, there are 3 other bitcoin transaction needs that can increase miners' income for readers' reference.
On-chain collectibles with rare satosos
The release of the Ordinals protocol reveals a tracking system for the smallest unit of Bitcoin (equivalent to 0.00000001 or 10^-8 BTC) voluntarily agreed by users. According to the Ordinals protocol, each satoshi is assigned an ordered number. By employing such a standard, the first stoshi dug up all the way up to the last released satoshi is marked and identified along a sequential number. In other words, when the smallest unit of Bitcoin is viewed in this way, each satoshis becomes an independent non-fungible unit.
Users also have the option to attach any data file they have to add an extra layer of uniqueness. These files are known as inscriptions, and users can mix the inscriptions with any satoshis they have while retaining the ability to transmit and store such modified satoshis on the Bitcoin network, just like regular Bitcoin.
As a result, many satoshis is now tagged with images, text, and even full video game files, making them uniquely distinguishable from each other and giving investors different reasons to evaluate the value of these satosos.
Because of the unique numerical meaning of the serial number itself or the associated inscription on it, some of the satoshis collectible value has been proven in the market.
In the first example, a Satoshi inscribed with an image called "Genesis Cat" was auctioned for $240,000, which was hailed as a unique 1/1 artwork with cultural and political significance, and was part of the Quantum Cat series, which was designed to symbolize and support the restoration of previously deleted features in the Bitcoin protocol. Another example is a satoshi that was sold for $165,100 even without an inscription, as it was advertised as a rare supply of satosos, with provenance dating back to Bitcoin's first difficulty-adjusted period.
These high-priced sales provide an incentive for those who are looking for valuable satoshis on the chain. The purpose of selling satoshis at a much higher price than the regular market on the secondary market is changing the tendency of some users to pay transaction fees. It's safe to say that collecting a satosa with special significance and selling it on the market for a profit of up to hundreds of thousands of dollars will result in competitors giving much higher commissions than ordinary transactions.
Given that the halving is a completely predictable and scarce event in Bitcoin's history, there is bound to be competition in collecting rare satoshis and etching the runes of the first block. It is expected that the first stoshi mined after the halving will be so valuable that the Foundry USA pool will even plan to share its proceeds with miners in order to win block mining rights. This may be short-lived, but this fierce competition will certainly lead to a spike in fees.
Private transaction requirements
Another atypical need could be a trading accelerator. Marathon launched a product called Slipstream in late February, which opens up a way for users to bypass the Bitcoin mempool (the packaging waiting area for transactions) by communicating and paying for transactions directly to the MARA mining pool. While the product doesn't offer much of an edge in terms of earning fees compared to other mining pools, there are still several examples of success.
While not widespread, accelerators like Slipstream have the potential to increase costs indirectly when there is sufficient demand. If a transaction is submitted directly to the mining pool, the transaction will not be known to any other Bitcoin user in advance. As a result, other users may find that their transactions within the block rate range actually need to continue to wait, because low-fee transactions submitted directly to the pool are secretly packed into blocks, but this does not reflect the true rate situation. This can confuse consumers as to how much fees should be attached to speed up the transaction. As more and more transactions flow to these accelerators, multiple fee markets emerge, some are public as part of the Bitcoin protocol, while others are private.
In a state where transactions need to be confirmed quickly, this confusion in the private fee market can lead to overpayment compared to actual fee expectations in the open market. But it's worth noting that at the moment we don't see this happening on a large scale.
矿工可提取价值 （MEV）
MEV is another emerging dimension of Bitcoin's block space requirements. MEV refers to a situation where miners (or mining pools) have the opportunity to earn additional profits by manipulating the order of transactions within a block. Previously, MEV was a potential feature of Bitcoin and was limited because of Bitcoin's strict functional limitations and simple trading model. However, MEV has become more pronounced due to changes in the nature of Bitcoin transactions made by the Bitcoin software and users. Here are 3 possible sources of MEV revenue:
1. On-chain collectibles: Because some inscriptions and satoshis are of high value, and the market technology is still relatively inefficient, it is possible to obtain additional income by buying, sniping, and reselling mispriced assets, and even miners do not hesitate to sacrifice fee income to grab higher value satosos.
2. Tokenized assets: Runes, BRC-20, RBG, Taproot assets, and other possible token assets, opening the door for miners to participate in front-running and arbitrage trades for additional rewards.
3. Bitcoin plugins: As more and more external platforms or Bitcoin L2s use Bitcoin as settlement, miners may be able to exploit vulnerabilities in earlier designs and additional incentives for them (such as merge mining) to earn higher revenues.
This halving means a further reduction in the block reward and a relative increase in the importance of transaction fees for miners. This may provide an additional incentive for miners to seek transaction-related benefits and find diversified means of income. So we believe that MEV will at least be tried.
summary
The diversification of Bitcoin transaction demand could be a lifesaver for the mining economy. As halving events reduce the block reward, these new uses of Bitcoin's block space could significantly increase transaction fees. This is crucial for miners, as these fees offset the loss of the block reward and maintain its profitability.
As mentioned earlier, near-term transaction fees will increase significantly due to competition in new market segments, including the issuance of assets and the search for unique collectibles. Not only do these applications introduce additional transaction fees, but they may also encourage the emergence of more strategic methods of transaction processing.
At the end of the day, miners' shift to a more complex and transaction-fee-dependent economic model highlights the importance of understanding and leveraging new Bitcoin transactions to stay competitive.
Going forward, I expect transaction fees to well exceed mining revenue by 50% in some blocks. Looking back at the two-month period at the end of 2023, which was mainly influenced by the inscription market, the average transaction fee accounted for 30% of the mining revenue after the halving, and if this average (193 BTC/day) was maintained, it would make up for 43% of the impact of the halving on miners' income.
However, the sustainability of these transactions, driven by the demand of non-Bitcoin itself, remains an open mystery – are they leading long-term change in the Bitcoin trading market, or are they just a short-lived symptom of a bull market?