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Japan, suddenly!

author:EMBA

China Fund News Taylor

Brothers and sisters, I don't know if you have such a feeling, the recent A shares, has been oscillating back and forth between 3000 points and 3100 points, dare not rise sharply, do not dare to fall sharply, continue to trade sideways, I don't know when to break through!

Let's take a look back at today's market.

The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.04%.

A total of 2,938 stocks rose in the market, 2,237 stocks fell, and northbound funds bought a net of 300 million yuan.

Japan, suddenly!
Japan, suddenly!

The chemical sector exploded. Huiyun Titanium Industry, Lubei Chemical, Annada, Gimpo Titanium, Liuguo Chemical, Shilong Industrial and other shares have a daily limit.

Japan, suddenly!

The concept of low-altitude economy is active! Zhongheng designed 7 boards, Wanfeng Aowei, Sichuan University Zhisheng, Haite High-tech, Lingnan Holdings.

Japan, suddenly!

Pharmaceutical stocks were active, with Changshan Pharmaceutical and Kanghong Pharmaceutical up and down.

Japan, suddenly!

ST Ningke, which rose to the daily limit in a straight line during the session, staged a "earth-sky board", which had fallen for 17 consecutive trading days.

Japan, suddenly!

The yen exchange rate fell below 155 yen

Today, Japan suffered a double kill of stocks and foreign exchange, the yen continued to depreciate, and the yen was sold off in the absence of a clear bearishness, easily breaking through the 155 yen mark, hitting a 34-year low.

Japan, suddenly!

In the stock market, it plunged more than 2%.

Japan, suddenly!

Previously, the Bank of Japan released a message to intervene in the excessive depreciation of the yen, and this verbal warning began to be issued from the 120 yen mark, and now it has exceeded 155 yen, indicating that the Japanese authorities' verbal intervention has not worked, and the market has adjusted the psychological threshold to 160 yen to trigger substantive interventions, believing that this is the "last straw".

Since the beginning of this year, the depreciation trend of the yen has been unstoppable, and the dollar has risen more than 10% against the yen, from around 141 yen at the beginning of the year to 155 yen. Previously, the market generally believed that 152 yen was an important threshold for the Japanese authorities to intervene, but the authorities did not take any substantive measures other than repeated verbal interventions.

Bank of America noted in Tuesday's report that the 155 yen level is the "bottom line" for Japan's Ministry of Finance, and that the Ministry of Finance will intervene if the yen falls below this level. If the Ministry of Finance does not intervene around 155 yen, the market may quickly push the yen to the 160 mark.

BofA also said that the intervention may be different from the large-scale intervention in 2022, and that the Ministry of Finance may steer the yen downward through smaller but more frequent interventions.

The Bank of Japan could intervene as early as Friday to support the yen, and may coordinate its actions with the Bank of Korea to maximize its impact, analysts said.

If it does act, it will be the first monetary intervention by the Bank of Japan since September 2022, the analysis said. The Bank of Japan's last intervention initially had little impact on the USDJPY exchange rate. But in the months that followed, the yen rose more than 13% against the dollar, reaching around 130 yen per dollar in early 2023.

Changes in traders' expectations for the number of Fed rate cuts in 2024 have pushed the dollar higher this year, with the greenback strengthening against most currencies. The yen has been particularly affected, with the dollar's rally having seen it fall to its lowest level in 34 years, with traders increasingly expecting the Fed to cut interest rates twice or less in 2024.

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