Waiting for the "iPhone moment", domestic manufacturers poured into the spatial computing track

Author | Liu Fen ed Jiang Shizhou

As the technology and experience of spatial computing continue to evolve, when to trigger the "iPhone moment" is becoming a new expectation for consumers and entrepreneurs. This wave of change dividends has made all kinds of technology companies geared up.

The first company to bring the concept of "spatial computing" to the fire was Apple. In both the era of personal computing and mobile computing, Apple has launched disruptive products. In June 2023, with the release of the first headset Vision Pro, Apple let the public see that spatial computing devices are expected to take over from mobile phones as the next generation of computing platforms, helping people realize the connection and integration between virtual and reality, and "control everything" with their fingers and eyes.

However, the bulky and expensive price of the Vision Pro "dissuaded" some consumers. On April 24, Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known electronics industry analyst, posted that Apple has revised down Vision Pro shipments in 2024 to 400,000 to 450,000 units, compared with the original expectation of 70 to 800,000 units. Lighter devices, more open operating systems, and richer content ecosystems...... As the track heats up, industry competitors are striding on a different path from Apple, intending to penetrate most consumers.

On April 20, Rokid, a domestic manufacturer, released a new generation of AR Lite spatial computing suite, announcing that on the basis of establishing the underlying technical capabilities of domestic independent spatial computing, a full ecological layout including operating systems and modules will be formed. Zuckerberg, the head of Meta, recently announced the opening of the Quest headset operating system to third parties, with the goal of allowing the open model to redefine the next generation of computing through the metaverse, glasses and headsets, with Lenovo, Microsoft and Asus becoming the first partners.

Obviously, the battle for routes and ecology has begun. More and more Chinese companies are pouring into the spatial computing track, aiming at the improvement of the content ecosystem and the iteration of hardware products, and exploring more application scenarios and business possibilities.

With more and more participants coming in, who will benefit the most?

Looking back on the history of consumer electronics, the upgrade of computing platforms is usually accompanied by the upgrade of interaction methods, and more natural interaction is the long-term development direction of consumer electronics. At the height of the personal computer, the largest computing platforms were desktops and laptops. In the era of smart phones, smart touch devices such as mobile phones and tablets have become the largest computing platforms today. When smartphone shipments have been declining, technological innovation and experience development have entered a bottleneck period, and more efficient interaction methods have put forward higher requirements for computing platforms.

"The concept of spatial computing appeared very early, but it was not widely used on the C-end before the release of Apple's Vision Pro, and the application field of the B-end market is not large. Liu Yaodong, Chairman of Virtual Movepoint, Vice President and CMO of Leyard Group, said in an interview with Caijing New Media that the formation and commercialization of the spatial computing industry chain are still in the initial stage.

Many respondents are still optimistic about the rapid growth of the spatial computing industry. Zhu Mingming, founder and CEO of Rokid, said that the current spatial computing industry is experiencing a critical period from concept to product and ecological acceleration, which can be understood as the first three years of the emergence of the iPhone (2007). The industry will maintain more than 50% growth in the next 10 to 20 years, or even 100% continuously.

Many domestic and foreign technology companies are taking spatial computing as their core strategy and deploying related technologies and products. Wu Dezhou, founder and CEO of Tribute to Unknown, believes that the reason for chasing this is that spatial computing, as one of the basic technologies of the metaverse, integrates cutting-edge technologies such as cloud computing, edge computing and the Internet of Things, which can meet the needs of more industries, bring new development opportunities, and form a more free-flowing and intelligent interconnected future.

Through the comprehensive layout of domestic manufacturers from the upstream supply chain to the downstream terminal market, we can see how the abstract concept of spatial computing is being pieced together by specific industries. According to a report by market research agency IDC, in the first three quarters of 2023, Pico's shipment share in China's VR market reached 58.5%, ranking first in the first three quarters, and Rokid, Xreal, and Thunderbird accounted for more than 70% of AR market shipments. In 2024, leading overseas manufacturers are expected to enter the Chinese market, and the new AR glasses of mobile phone manufacturers are poised to launch, and the competition pattern of manufacturers in the Chinese market is full of variables.

On the one hand, the cross-border entry posture of domestic mobile phone and PC manufacturers is obvious. "Caijing" new media noted that Meizu and OPPO will launch AR smart glasses brand MYVU and the first MR device in 2023, respectively, and vivo said that it will launch the first MR mixed reality glasses prototype in 2025. After joining Meta's "Moments", ASUS's Republic of Gamers is working on a gaming headset, and Lenovo is working on an MR device.

On the other hand, all kinds of enterprises form joint deployment around the industrial chain. Taking Rokid as an example, based on the self-developed open-source operating system and spatial computing platform, Rokid currently has more than 3,000 registered developers worldwide in the developer ecology of spatial computing, including more than 2,000 enterprise developers, and most of the AR developers are developing spatial computing applications for Rokid and Apple at the same time. Through cooperation with Qualcomm, we have added more powerful real-time computing power, cooperated with Alibaba Cloud to embed cloud storage capabilities into the Rokid operating system, and cooperated with Hainan Airlines to expand the application of travel scenarios.

In the fields of chips, optical modules, and materials, the localization of core technologies in the spatial computing industry chain is also accelerating.

Liu Yaodong is optimistic that two types of enterprises will benefit greatly. The first type is the spatial computing algorithm end enterprises, thanks to the gradual maturity of this technology, the application field of algorithms will be more extensive, and enterprises such as virtual dynamic points will obtain more market opportunities. The other type is spatial computing application enterprises, which have previously focused on 2D solutions and are accustomed to mouse, text input, and touch. After adding space calculation, the interaction mode will be more flexible and diverse, the value created will be greater, and the profit margin of the product sold to consumers after integration will also be greater.

The technical route and ecosystem are the focus of the competition, where is the difference?

At present, there are two main technical routes around the layout of spatial computing equipment: one is the VST (video perspective) route represented by Apple, and the other is the OST (optical perspective) route represented by Rokid and Thunderbird.

The selection of technology routes and the construction of ecosystems are the two main focuses of the current competition of enterprises. "VST can provide a completely realistic visual experience, but it is difficult to lightweight the device, and the OST solution pursues lightweight, which is suitable for scenarios with extremely high requirements for visual quality, but it is difficult for users to have an immersive experience. Wu Dezhou said.

In addition, in terms of ecosystem construction, VST developed earlier, has more mature application scenarios and ecosystems, and its technical characteristics make it easier to integrate with other digital technologies such as cloud computing and edge computing, which can promote the development of the entire industry ecosystem. At present, OST is facing more challenges in ecological construction, and the large ecological industry chain such as technology, supply chain, and content is still in a relatively early stage, and it is still relatively limited in terms of application scenarios and ecology. However, in the long run, OST technology is more suitable for the mass market and is a key terminal entry in the field of spatial computing, which is expected to detonate the consumer market.

ARknovv has chosen the OST route from the very beginning. Wu Dezhou revealed to Caijing new media that AR is augmented reality, which needs to be more integrated and interactive with the real scene, and it needs to be worn out. The company's strategic goal has always been to make consumer-grade AR glasses that can be worn out with AI as the core.

At the same time, MR and AR are two different terminals with many differences in application scenarios and interaction methods. MR terminal manufacturers mainly think and define products based on the user's better experience in the limited activity space. The use scenarios are more suitable for closed or consumer mobile scenarios, and more application scenarios focus on indoor or office scenarios, and the interaction methods are mainly based on eye movements, gestures and voice, and there is no special restriction on the weight of the product. The core of AR terminal is the integration and interaction with the real scene, the application scenario belongs to the mobile scene and needs to be able to wear it out of the door, for AR terminals, this requires the terminal equipment to be thinner and lighter, and the lightweight AR technology is the core key, which is more suitable for voice interaction in interaction.

Despite the different technical routes, the entry of large companies has driven the entire industry. Zhu Mingming said that after the release of Vision Pro, Rokid's sales have doubled, and developers are also doubling. Large companies are still educating this market, and Meta and Apple have spared no effort, but they are in a different direction from Rokid in terms of products, and there is almost no competition.

There are only three situations in which startups and large companies compete. For example, he said, first, large companies educate the market well, products do not compete, and startups are the most comfortable. Second, the market is well educated by the big companies, but the products start to compete fully, and the startups have to fight against the big companies. It doesn't have to be a bad outcome, maybe the startup will fight big with a small one and eventually beat the big company. The third is the worst-case scenario. Large companies did not educate the market, and the whole market was "dead".

"We can question time, we can question who won the last war, but don't question the arrival of this time"

Huajin Securities compared in the research report, Apple mainly builds spatial computing terminals, and focuses on the new upgrade of audio-visual entertainment experience and remote office helper; Meta mainly positions social entertainment terminals; Rokid migrates to AR spatial computing terminals with Station, positioning mobile office, giant screen display, and spatial audio-visual entertainment; Thunderbird cuts into consumer-level real · AR glasses track, positioning wearable devices equipped with AI large models.

"We hope to impress those technology enthusiasts and business travelers through 'entertainment + light office'. As for the customer base of heavy gamers, I don't think it's time to make a difference. In Zhu Mingming's view, for the consumer electronics industry, the ultimate and biggest use case is gaming and social networking. And for any technology product, there is only one answer to the ultimate popularization, and it depends on the fact that it is ecology.

In an interview with Caijing New Media, he revealed that from day one, Rokid has positioned itself as a platform company. One of the major characteristics of positioning itself as a platform company is that it must first let the ecology survive and let them make money, otherwise the platform is fake. Chinese companies, especially technology companies, do not lack the ability and resources to build an ecosystem. The vast majority of companies, especially large companies, have this ability, but there are very few companies that have truly formed an ecosystem. Most Chinese companies do not do well in the ecosystem, not because of their ability but because of their mentality.

In Liu Yaodong's view, based on the positioning of the term spatial computing, it is necessary to improve computing power, optimize algorithms, and improve the product power of wearable devices and edge computing devices. This is the result of comprehensive scientific and technological improvement, and its popularization rhythm depends on many upstream and downstream technologies and products.

"If scenario solution providers can apply spatial computing based on new technologies such as 3D interaction, 3D computing, machine vision, and large models to scenarios that are closely related to consumers, the relevant concepts will be more quickly accepted by consumers. On the C side, more scenario solutions are needed to apply this technology, and on the B side, spatial computing can solve the problem of inaccurate measurement and application of spatial data in the past, and more scenarios are needed to promote the development of technology. ”

IDC concluded that with the continuous improvement of connection adapters and application adaptability, tablets, console game consoles, and smart cars are expected to better connect with AR/VR devices. In addition, AI will help accelerate the penetration of AR/VR devices into smart life scenarios, and the cooperation between AR hardware manufacturers and large model manufacturers will continue to deepen. The offline channel system has been continuously enriched, and manufacturers have entered a full range of multi-dimensional competition in sales channels, marketing strategies, content layout, and supply chain costs.

In the eyes of respondents, people's pursuit of information interaction experience is endless. When space can be used as a vehicle for information presentation, everything can be very different. In the era of spatial computing, all related videos will be displayed in front of them in various levels, so that users can quickly find the content they are interested in and display it in front of them completely, which is a new era.

"We can question the time, we can question who won the final war, but don't question the coming of this era. Zhu Mingming said.