In the domestic spot soybean meal market, in late March, after a short period of soybean meal surge, affected by the prospect of "massive" soybeans entering the port, spot soybean meal prices continued to fall!
On April 11, the quotation of oil mills briefly bottomed out, and the price of spot soybean meal fell to 3210~3270 yuan/ton.
Sure enough, soybean meal "does not fall", up to now, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Tianjin, oil mill soybean meal quotation in 3280 ~ 3390 yuan / ton, compared with the low point in the month rose about 70 ~ 120 yuan / ton......
According to the analysis of institutions, this month, the domestic soybean into the port is relatively moderate, the pace of soybean inventory in oil mills is slow, from the analysis of institutional data, at this stage, the domestic sample oil mills, soybean inventory level is about 3.55 million tons, an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the previous day, soybean inventory is slow, compared with the inventory of 580~6.5 million tons at the beginning of the year, the inventory level of oil mills is still at a low level!
Restricted by the soybean inventory level of oil mills, recently, the operating rate of oil mills is generally around 50%, and the agency estimates that the soybean crushing level in April may be about 7.456 million tons, an increase of about 261,000 tons compared with March!
In terms of soybean meal inventory, at present, the soybean meal inventory level of domestic oil mills is 442,500 tons, an increase of 106,800 tons compared with the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory level is average, compared with the inventory level of 85~1 million tons at the beginning of the year, the pressure of soybean meal accumulation has been significantly reduced, however, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is still in the stage of slow accumulation!
On the one hand, recently, the soybean meal spot transaction is cold, the breeding industry is sluggish, the pig production capacity is concentrated, and the pig inventory has declined sharply, which has inhibited the popularity of soybean meal purchase and sales;
On the other hand, due to the import of soybeans into Hong Kong is expected to gradually become stronger, the inventory level of soybean meal will continue to increase, the market wait-and-see mentality is stronger, the cautious replenishment mentality is higher, and the downstream feed enterprises and traders are mainly based on rigid procurement, and the confidence in centralized procurement is insufficient!
Personally, I believe that due to the small inventory pressure of oil mills in stages, the slow pace of soybean meal accumulation, and the oil mills have a certain sentiment of high prices! Superimposed, recently, the Brazilian soybean discount price remains high, and the cost of imported soybeans into the port is high, which also inhibits the downward trend of soybean meal prices, and has a certain support for the spot market in the short term!
However, according to the agency's calculations, according to the estimated shipping schedule of the oil mill, in May, the domestic soybean import level may reach 11.1 million tons, and in June, the soybean entry level may reach 10.5 million tons!
However, in terms of demand follow-up, in May, the temperature is high, meat consumption is in the off-season, the breeding market may be more sluggish, the feed consumption capacity is insufficient, and the spot soybean meal market is under pressure from the supply side, and the price may fall under pressure!
Rationally, the domestic soybean meal spot may be dominated by shocks and lower, but there is still a certain bottom support in the market, and the price may be difficult to fall below 3000 yuan/ton!