April gradually came to an end, the grassroots surplus grain gradually decreased, the progress of grain sales in Northeast China exceeded 9 percent, North China as a whole over 8 percent, however, the corn market did not reduce with the grain source and the willow blossoms, the market suddenly "collapsed", the corn spot price in the producing area turned down, among them, the listed price of some enterprises in Shandong fell to 1.1 yuan / catty, and the corn showed a downward trend!
Personally, I believe that at this stage, due to the pressure of production and marketing mismatch in the corn market, the demand is insufficient, the northeast and North China are "playing their own games", there is a lack of intersection between each other, the regional grain supply is concentrated, and the demand is not substantially good, which may be the culprit of the decline in corn stocking! The specific analysis is as follows:
Northeast market: corn is running steadily, but the market is slightly weak, and the price lacks the momentum to rise, on the contrary, it is facing weak pressure!
Due to the transfer of grain sources to traders, the pressure on channel inventory has increased sharply, however, affected by the inversion of the regional price difference of grain sources, it is difficult for the Northeast corn export port, the corn inventory in the northern port is high, and the orders in the southern sales area are small, and the Northeast corn export to North China is also subject to the resistance of the price difference, the mentality of local traders has been sluggish, and the good of increasing grain reserves in China has almost worn out, and some channels have a certain resurgence of selling sentiment!
On the demand side, the enterprise undertakes the lack of strength, feed and deep processing both have high inventory, some feed enterprises have more ultra-low rice storage in the early stage, and the mentality of corn replenishment is poor, and deep processing is mainly cautious!
Therefore, affected by the production and marketing game, the Northeast corn presents a weak and stable situation, and some enterprises are affected by the increase in grain sources, and the price is slightly weak!
North China market: It is understood that the autumn grain corn production in North China is expected to be stronger, but due to the impact of precipitation after the corn harvest, the quality of grain sources is uneven, and the pace of corn grain sales is slow.
At the end of March and the beginning of April, as the temperature in North China rose sharply, the pressure on corn storage intensified, the sentiment of farmers to sell grain was high, traders successively built warehouses, and enterprises increased passive warehousing. Some farmers are helpless, the more corn is saved, the more worthless, after the new corn is listed, the grassroots purchase price is 1.3 yuan/jin, and now the selling price of dry grain is only about 1.1 yuan/jin......
Taking Shandong as an example, in the land of Heze Chengwu, the moisture requirement is less than 16.5%, the price is 1.1 yuan/jin, the price of more than 16.5 water is less than 20 yuan/jin is 1.09~1.095 yuan/jin, the price of more than 20 water is 1.08 yuan/jin, and more than 25 water is rejected!
At present, in the North China market, corn quotations have not stopped, and the mismatch between production and marketing in the market is more obvious, as follows:
On the one hand, the North China market corn production is expected to be strong, the agency predicts that the local corn production will reach 6.12 million tons, the autumn grain market after the slow pace of grain sales, corn selling pressure risk concentrated in March ~ April!
On the other hand, corn consumption support is insufficient! As the breeding industry is in the off-season, the consumption capacity of feed enterprises has declined, recently, the operating rate of deep processing enterprises has declined, the downstream competitive pressure of products has increased, some enterprises are subject to machine maintenance, the shutdown phenomenon has increased, the level of raw material consumption has further declined, the mentality of enterprises to replenish corn is general, and the sentiment of looking at the price of the car is stronger!
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, the North China market, corn spot will continue to be under pressure, however, with the gradual reduction of the stage of grassroots surplus grain, the corn selling pressure has weakened slightly, and the market may have signs of stabilization, however, due to the lack of demand support, and some traders accumulate greater pressure, the risk of corn storage before the wheat harvest still exists, and the corn market will still be dominated by shocks and weakening!
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