【SMM Metal Morning Ginseng】Metal rose and alumina led the rise Prospect of copper and aluminum substitution in the cable industry in the next 10 years Development opportunities in the global aluminum market
》[Aluminum Conference Live Broadcast] 2024 Global Aluminum Raw Material Market Outlook | Opportunities and Challenges in the Recycled Aluminum Market | Interpretation of import and export policies
》【Aluminum Conference Live Broadcast】Aluminum Market Prospect Analysis | Reflections and changes in the construction aluminum market | Share the latest technological breakthroughs
►Geopolitical conflicts are expected to rise again, copper prices rebound [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
►The market is still in the stage of digesting macro sentiment, and Shanghai Aluminum is dominated by high-level shocks [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
►The spot transaction of alumina is relatively active, and the center of gravity of the transaction price has moved significantly upward
►Downstream enterprises have scattered orders, and the trend of lead prices pays attention to the reduction and suspension of production in the upstream and downstream
►The center of gravity of London zinc moves downward, pay attention to the follow-up U.S. economic data [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Shanghai tin prices closed up slightly in the night, and the spot market has been more active recently
►Precursor companies carry out pre-May Day stocking, and the price of ferronickel is stable and strong in the short term [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Minutes]
►The pace of blast furnace resumption of production is accelerated, and the price of raw materials supporting steel is easy to rise and difficult to fall [SMM Steel Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Cell inventories continue to increase, module production schedule is expected to drop in May [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]
In terms of the metal market:
Overnight, the basic metals in the domestic market were all red, and Shanghai tin rose 0.98%. Shanghai copper rose 0.74%. Shanghai lead, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai zinc all rose, all within 0.7%. Alumina rose 3.73%.
Overnight, the black series rose across the board, iron ore rose 1.61%, thread, stainless steel, and hot coil all rose, and the increase was within 0.5%. In terms of double coke: coking coal rose 2.15%, coke rose 1.24%.
LME metals rose overnight, and London copper rose 0.86%. London lead rose 0.82%. London zinc rose slightly, and London aluminum rose 0.19%. London nickel fell 0.72%. Lunxi fell 1.06%,
隔夜贵金属方面：沪金涨0.29%；沪银涨0.16%。 COMEX黄金跌0.56%,COMEX白银跌0.61%。
As of 6:52 on April 25, the overnight closing market
》SMM metal spot price on April 23
Macroscopic
On the dollar front: The dollar index rose 0.11% to 105.81 overnight. U.S. data showed earlier on Wednesday. U.S. core capital goods orders rose modestly in March, and the February data was revised downward, suggesting that corporate equipment spending may remain weak in the first quarter. According to CME Group's (CME) FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 70% chance that the U.S. will cut interest rates for the first time in September. Markets are keeping a close eye on the US Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) data due on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March on Friday, which could provide clues to the Fed's interest rate path.
In terms of data:
Today, Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index for May, the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the first quarter, the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States for the first quarter, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ended April 20 will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that the Bank of Canada released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
Crude oil: Both oil futures fell slightly overnight, with U.S. oil down 0.62% and Brent oil down 0.35%. Oil prices fell as concerns about the conflict in the Middle East eased and U.S. business activity slowed, although falling U.S. crude inventories limited declines.
》Metals rose nearly across the board, alumina rose 3.73%, coking coal rose 2.15%, and Lunxi fell more than 1% [overnight market]
List of total inventories of LME base metal warehousing on April 24 (unit: tonnes)
List of LME base metal registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts on April 24 (unit: ton)
【SMM: Trend Outlook of Copper and Aluminum Substitution in the Wire and Cable Industry in the Next 10 Years】Fei Changyun, Senior Consulting Manager of SMM, shared the trend outlook of copper and aluminum substitution in the power transmission and distribution (wire and cable) industry in the next 10 years. Due to technical limitations, there is no substitute for copper at the transmission end. SMM expects that the copper unit consumption of distribution lines will gradually increase in the future. The rate of copper substitution for distribution lines in China is much lower than in the United States. In the future, with the increasing maturity of technology, China's copper substitution rate will gradually increase. According to the distribution line design code, copper cable is recommended for 35KV cable routes, while 10KV is not stated. >> Click here for details
【SMM Copper Summit|Qu Shengli: Analysis of the Market Status and Development Trend of China's Copper Smelting Industry】Dong Zhunqin, Chief Engineer of Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd., Qu Shengli, Acting President, said in his analysis of the market status and development trend of China's copper smelting industry that by 2025, the copper smelting capacity will increase by 3.26 million tons. The rapid expansion of copper production capacity will inevitably lead to a shortage of raw materials and a surplus of products. In 2023, China's sulfuric acid production capacity will be 130 million tons, while the by-product acid of copper smelting will be 48.5 million tons, and the smelting acid is expected to increase by 12.59 million tons in the next three years. Its suggestion: give full play to the advantages of multi-metal mixing and synergy in large-scale smelting and build a non-ferrous metal industrial cluster ......" Click to view details
【SMM Copper Summit: Research and Judgment on Blister Copper Supply and Consumption, Challenges and Opportunities for the Industry】 Cui Xiangdong, Director of the Supply and Marketing Department of China Nonferrous Metals Group Chifeng Fubon Copper Co., Ltd., studied and judged the supply and consumption of blister copper at the 2024 (19th) SMM Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo - Copper Raw Materials and Consumption Development Forum jointly organized by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) and Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd. The global copper concentrate trade market will turn from surplus to shortage in 2024. Aggressive smelting capacity in China and India, as well as new integrated smelters in the DRC and Indonesia, have led to a shortage of copper concentrate in the trading market, with blister copper being one of the feedstocks to fill the gap, given the huge gap between smelters and refining supply. Blister copper and copper scrap are important lubricants for balancing the market, but they depend on recycling efficiency, and for Chinese smelters, increasing the recycling efficiency of domestic blister copper resources will be an alternative to fill the supply gap of imported copper concentrate. >> Click here for details
According to the latest release of the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics show that the total import volume of manganese ore in the mainland in March 2024 will be 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 6.09% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.37%, and the export volume this month will be 20,300 tons. The cumulative import volume from January to March was 7.3 million tons, an increase of 41.20% over the same period last year......》Click to view details
[Non-oriented semi-process silicon steel manufacturers have introduced a price policy, and the overall price is still running smoothly] Subsequently, the market demand has increased, and the demand situation will be better in May, and the downward expectation of the non-oriented silicon steel market is basically gone, and the price of medium and low grades will be in a stable stage in the short term. In terms of high-grade new energy brands, the field of new energy vehicles in mainland China is developing rapidly, and the demand is still increasing. >> Click here for details
At present, the penetration rate of the new energy passenger vehicle market is growing rapidly at a rate visible to the naked eye, and today we will turn our attention to another important area - commercial vehicles, commercial vehicles have many buses and buses have completed the electrification of the upgrade, and the field of heavy trucks is still in the process of electrification transformation. >> Click here for details
Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data for March 2024, according to customs data, China's rare earth metal ore imports in March 2024 were 5905.7 tons, an increase of 55% year-on-year and 68% month-on-month......》Click to view details
[SMM analysis: overseas consumption picks up, China's silicon metal exports in March increased by 33% year-on-year] Customs data shows that China's silicon metal exports in March 2024 were 63,900 tons, an increase of 71% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year. From January to March 2024, the cumulative export volume of silicon metal was 165,300 tons, an increase of 12% year-on-year. >> Click here for details
>> Click here for details
►[Copper Meeting] The current situation and prospect of the industrial chain of copper mines, copper rods, copper plates, strips and foils, etc., hard-core technology sharing, and overseas investment opportunities are discovered
►[Aluminum Club Live] From the perspective of products, production capacity and supply chain, the development opportunities of the global aluminum market | Focus on scientific research and strong equipment to create a new highland for the aluminum processing industry
►2024 Copper Rod Market Status and Prospects: Focus on Southeast Asian Countries and the Belt and Road Initiative Demand Growth Points [SMM Copper Summit]
►SMM: Copper concentrate spot processing fee is close to $0! How has the copper market evolved in the second and third quarters of centralized refinery maintenance? 【SMM Copper Summit】
►Application and prospect of copper in connectors Huge copper market space under the wave of AI [SMM Copper Summit]
►2024 SMM China Top 20 Winners of Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil, Aluminum Alloy Ingot and Industrial Aluminum Profile Enterprises Announced [Aluminum Conference]
►2024 SMM China Top 10 Winners of Remelting Rod and Molten Aluminum Rod Enterprises Announced [Aluminum Conference]
►2024 SMM China's Top 20 Aluminum Casting Quality Service Providers List Announced [Aluminum Conference]
►2024 SMM List of High-quality Suppliers in China's Aluminum Industry [Aluminum Conference]
►Overseas manganese prices are rising, supply is tightening, and coke prices are increasing, and manganese-silicon futures prices are hitting a new high for half a year [SMM Comments]
►[Blast furnace operating rate] The pace of blast furnace resumption of production has accelerated, and the output of molten iron has risen sharply
►Disk shock speculation weakened, inventory accumulated slightly [SMM Hangzhou thread weekly inventory]
►[SMM Analysis] Lithium Iron Phosphate Plant Bidding Q2 Iron Phosphate 8400 Tons The price adjustment benchmark refers to the SMM iron phosphate price
►[SMM Analysis] After reading this, "lithium" solves the lithium industry chain
►[SMM Analysis] The import and export of natural graphite in March increased month-on-month, but it was still lower than the same period
►[SMM Analysis] New Energy Lithium Battery Recycling: Special Subsidies for Budget Investment!
►Traders exporting to Europe beware: These Western Mediterranean ports are "full" under the Red Sea crisis
► Falling to the "intervention line"? The yen exchange rate fell below the 155 mark for the first time since June 1990
►[SMM Announcement] SMM PV module price split centralized and distributed quotation
Shibor:: Overnight at 1.7840%, down 0.40 basis points. The 7-day was at 1.8550%, up 3.10 basis points. The 3-month was 2.0140%, down 0.40 basis points.
RMB: The onshore yuan closed at 7.2460 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.0083%, and the central parity of the yuan was reported at 7.1048, up 0.0155%.
[First Quantum's copper production in the first quarter fell 37% quarter-on-quarter, and the 2024 copper-nickel-gold production guidance remains unchanged] According to foreign news on April 24, Canada's First Quantum announced that in the first quarter of 2024, the total copper production was 100,605 tons, a decrease of 37% from the fourth quarter of 2023, due to the shutdown of the Cobre Panamá copper mine in Panama. Excluding the impact of the mine, copper production increased by 3% quarter-on-quarter. At the request of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, the Cobre Panamá Copper Mine submitted an update and expansion at the end of March..."
[Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo power supply cut, global copper mine production may be reduced by 152,000 tons] Drought has caused hydropower generation in Zambia to be blocked, and the Zambian Mining Chamber of Commerce revealed that the national power company (Zesco) plans to cut the power supply to mining companies, and demand will drop by up to 20%. Zambia accounts for more than 80% of the installed hydropower capacity, and due to the El Niño phenomenon, the country has entered a state of disaster emergency, and the power gap may exceed 520 megawatts by the end of the year. Some companies in the DRC rely on Zambia's electricity imports, and their production capacity has also been affected. Global copper mine production could be reduced by about 152,000 tonnes due to power outages in Zambia and the DRC. Global copper mine production in 2023 is estimated at 22 million tonnes, with Zambia and the DRC accounting for 3.5% and 11.4% respectively. If Zambia's miners reduce production by 20%, copper production will be reduced by 152,000 tons. >> Click here for details
On April 25, at the 2024SMM (19th) Aluminum Conference and the first Aluminum Industry Expo hosted by SMM, Inga Simonenko, Director of Global Sustainable Development Marketing at UC Rusal, introduced that the expansion of the power grid will promote aluminum consumption, and solar photovoltaic is the fastest growing leader in aluminum demand. The increase in the share of SUVs has led to an increase in the average weight of automobiles. >> Click here for details
[South32: Manganese ore supply constraints affect global production by 11.3% silicon-manganese production costs rise] Australia's South32 revealed in its latest first-quarter report that its terminal operations and export sales are expected to be suspended until the first quarter of 2025 due to infrastructure damage. This event is expected to have a significant impact on the global supply of manganese ore, which is expected to reduce supply by about 2.415 million tons, accounting for 11.3% of global manganese ore production. >> Click here for details
DCE issued a notice that starting from April 26, 2024 (i.e., during the night trading session on April 25), non-FF members or customers shall not open more than 500 contracts in a single day in iron ore futures I2405 and I2409 contracts, and 2,000 contracts in other iron ore futures contracts in a single day. The daily open position refers to the sum of the number of buy and open positions and the number of sell positions opened by a non-FF member or client on a single contract on that day. The number of open positions in a single day for hedging and market making is not subject to the above criteria. Accounts with de facto control relationships are managed on a single basis. >> Click here for details
At the 2023 annual report on the collective performance of traditional industries on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange held on the afternoon of the 24th, Qu Yedong, general manager of Northern Rare Earth, said in response to investors' questions, "Affected by market supply and demand, the price of rare earth products in the rare earth market has rebounded at a low level recently, with a slight upward shock, with an increase of about 10%. In addition to the new production line under construction or commissioning, the company's upstream raw material industry production line is in full production, and the downstream functional material industry is affected by market factors, and the capacity utilization rate is lower than that of the raw material industry. ”
► First Quantum said that it would be possible to ship copper out of Panama's copper mines only after the election
►High-end copper foil products such as high-tensile lithium battery copper foil will become the possible development direction of copper foil in the future [SMM Copper Summit]
►Efficient Utilization of Recycled Copper and Cost Reduction and Green Transformation and Upgrading under the Low-carbon Economy [SMM Copper Summit]
►Analysis of the current situation of the global copper alloy industry market research and progress of high-performance copper alloy rods and wires【SMM Copper Summit】
►Multi-objective Optimization Design of Copper Alloy for Bar and Wire Based on Machine Learning [SMM Copper Summit]
►Cochilco: Chile's copper production is expected to hit a record high next year
►Italian cable manufacturer Prysmian has entered into a long-term copper wire supply agreement with European copper giant Aurubis
►Guided by scientific and technological innovation, cultivate and develop new productivity in the aluminum processing industry [SMM Aluminum Conference]
►South32: Restricted supply of manganese ore affects global production by 11.3% The cost of silicon-manganese production has risen
►Brazil sets import quotas for 11 steel products, and 25% tariffs will be imposed on excess
► "Gold No. 1 Longs" is on fire!
►Hefei Jingshen Precision Magnesium Aluminum Alloy Semi-solid 3000T was put into operation
►Sanxiang New Materials: The company's production of magnesium alloy has not yet entered the field of flying cars, and its net profit in 2023 will decrease by 47.48% year-on-year
►On April 24, the national carbon market price rose 0.99%, and the total transaction of carbon emission allowances was 448,200 tons [Trading Daily]
The Standing Committee of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee held a meeting, which emphasized that accelerating large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods is a major measure to promote high-quality development. It is necessary to strengthen overall planning, do a good job in the organic connection with investment, finance and other work, grasp the project reserves, and ensure that practical results are achieved as soon as possible. Highlight the key points of work, focus on cultivating new quality productivity and promoting consumption, improve the level of high-end, intelligent and green industries, increase the support for car trade-in, encourage "oil for electricity" and smart home consumption, and cultivate consumption growth points. Fully mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises and consumers, optimize tax, financial and other support policies, strengthen factor guarantees, and encourage enterprises to trade in the old for the new. Efforts should be made to break through the blocking points and improve the recycling system. Do a good job of publicity and interpretation, and create a good social atmosphere.
[Fujian Province to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in implementation of consumer goods trade-in action] "Fujian Province to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in action implementation plan" issued, the main goal is to put forward by 2027, the growth target of equipment investment in key areas, as well as the growth target of scrapped car recycling, second-hand car transactions, and waste household appliances recycling. Comprehensively promote the renewal and transformation of equipment in key industries, accelerate the renewal of equipment in the field of construction and municipal infrastructure, actively promote the renewal of transportation equipment and old agricultural machinery, and strive to improve the level of education, cultural tourism and medical equipment. Carry out trade-in of automobiles, home appliances, home decoration, etc. Improve the recycling network of waste products and equipment, promote the circulation and trading of second-hand goods, promote remanufacturing and cascade utilization in an orderly manner, and comprehensively improve the level of resource recycling.
[Shandong will add 1.5 million kilowatts of offshore wind power installed capacity in 2024] Since the beginning of this year, Shandong has accelerated the construction of offshore wind power, and the installed capacity of offshore wind power projects under construction and about to start is 1.5 million kilowatts. By the end of the year, the total installed capacity of offshore wind power in the province is expected to exceed 6 million kilowatts.
[Guanghui Automobile: net profit of 70.9405 million yuan in the first quarter, down 86.61% year-on-year] Guanghui Automobile disclosed a quarterly report that in the first quarter of 2024, it achieved operating income of 27.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.49%, and a net profit of 70.9405 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 86.61%.
On the evening of April 23, Tianqi Lithium, a listed company, released a performance forecast, which is expected to have a net loss of 3.6 billion yuan to 4.3 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, shocking the industry circle. Since 2021, lithium carbonate has embarked on a highlight moment, and everything is bound to rise, and by November 2022, it has stood at a high price of nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. At that time, a number of large enterprises such as Lopal Technology, Zhicun Lithium, Yongxing Materials and other large enterprises have launched lithium carbonate expansion projects, from the investment amount, many projects have an investment amount of hundreds of millions of yuan or even billions of yuan, some of which have an investment amount of more than 10 billion yuan. >> Click here for details
EVE released a quarterly report, achieving operating income of 9.317 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024, down 16.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.066 billion yuan, down 6.49% year-on-year. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of the cost performance of lithium batteries and the further release of downstream demand, the company's energy storage and power battery shipments continued to maintain rapid growth. In terms of energy storage batteries, shipments were 7.02GWh, a year-on-year increase of 113.11%.
On April 24, Australian lithium miner Mineral Resources (MinRes) announced that although lithium prices are on an upward trend, the company will not expand production until prices rise steadily. James Bruce, executive managing director of MinRes, one of Australia's largest lithium producers, said in a recent analyst briefing that the company is optimistic about the bottoming out of lithium prices and has observed a recovery in market demand after the Chinese New Year. While the market has shown signs of stabilization, MinRes will wait for clearer signs of economic recovery before moving forward with the train3 project at the Wodgina lithium mine, which is being developed jointly with chemical giant Albemade. >> Click here for details
[Boke New Materials: Net profit in the first quarter increased by 8.98% year-on-year, and the magnetic powder core market is expected to grow in the first half of the year] Boke New Materials released a first-quarter performance announcement on the evening of April 24, saying that the revenue in the first quarter of 2024 will be about 335 million yuan, an increase of 15.28% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be about 71.52 million yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year, and the basic earnings per share will be 0.3597 yuan, an increase of 8.64% year-on-year. >> Click here for details
►Chile plans to increase lithium production by 70% by 2030 by co-developing the Atacama salt lake with SQM
►The overseas market of charging piles is on fire? Many companies respond to the latest developments The industry said that the situation at home and abroad is different
►Characteristics of automotive electronics and expectations for related industries [SMM Copper Summit]
►The development trend of the new generation of intelligent networked vehicle connectors and the demand analysis of the copper industry chain [SMM Copper Summit]
►"Air Express" was selected for the first time! The Ministry of Communications' new batch of intelligent transportation pilot list was released, and Baidu and other companies participated
►Australia's MinRes holds lithium production expansion in anticipation of continued price increases
►The stock price falls to the limit! Tianqi Lithium is expected to lose a lot in the first quarter! The Shenzhen Stock Exchange quickly asked