The sharp drop in lithium prices has led to a sharp reduction in the advantages of sodium batteries, and many projects have "cold" at the beginning of the year.
Recently, Zhiji L6 led the solid-state battery to rush into the sight of consumers, the solid-state battery concept plate has risen sharply for many days, 10 days and 8 boards of Sanxiang new materials and other news are still close at hand, and even the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Electronic Information Department Electronic Foundation Division Director Jin Lei also mentioned in a recent speech that the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Electronic Information Department will accelerate the breakthrough and demonstration application of sodium electricity, solid-state batteries, photovoltaic hydrogen production.
In addition to solid-state batteries, the long-awaited sodium-ion battery has also been mentioned again, but compared with the recent popularity of solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries have been much more "low-key" recently. But there is no doubt that when the price of lithium once rushed to 600,000 yuan/ton, sodium-ion batteries with lower cost and better safety performance were also "brilliant". At the 2023 China New Energy Industry Annual Conference hosted by SMM, Lei Baorong, deputy general manager and chief engineer of Jiangsu Xinri Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd., also predicted that sodium battery shipments may exceed 1Twh in 2030, ushering in the era of sodium battery Twh. And it is expected that sodium-ion batteries will become a hot spot for investment in the primary and secondary markets in the next 10 years. However, with the successive declines in lithium prices since 2023, the popularity of the once "rising star" sodium-ion battery has obviously fallen behind the past.
After the fall in lithium prices, what are the advantages of sodium-ion batteries?
According to SMM's calculations, the cost of sodium-ion batteries is about 0.3-0.5 yuan/Wh after large-scale mass production, and SMM sets the sodium-ion battery cells to be based on 0.4 yuan/Wh when calculating the subsequent cost savings ratio of sodium-ion batteries, and assumes that this value will remain constant in different scenarios. In the calculation process, it is found that as the price of lithium falls, the cost advantage of sodium-ion cells will be gradually weakened, and the cost advantage will be significantly weakened when the lithium price falls to 150,000 yuan, and there is little left when it falls back to 5-100,000 yuan/ton.
Assuming that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 100,000 yuan/ton, and the ternary cathode and lithium iron phosphate cathode are 150,000 yuan/ton and 52,000 yuan/ton respectively, the total cost of ternary and lithium iron battery cells will fall to 0.59 yuan/Wh and 0.46 yuan/Wh simultaneously.
In this case, the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries is only 13%, and there is little cost advantage left. Therefore, SMM has predicted that because sodium-ion batteries are still in the early stage of industrialization, the cost per Wh will still rise to a certain extent compared with the cost after industrial production. If lithium prices continue to decline, the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries will face a considerable threat. However, considering the economics of sodium electricity, the industry still has a consensus that the cost of sodium electricity may decline sharply in the future, and SMM expects that with the completion and launch of the construction of special production lines for sodium electricity, the production cost of sodium batteries will decline rapidly after the demand increases.
However, in the context that the current sodium battery technology has not yet fully matured, since the beginning of 2023, due to the repeated decline of lithium carbonate, many sodium power projects have been taken seriously. First of all, in terms of lithium carbonate prices, since the high point of 567,500 yuan/ton in 2022, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen by nearly 460,000 yuan. In 2024, lithium carbonate will fall to 96,150 yuan/ton at the lowest. However, in March, lithium carbonate ushered in a wave of rebound, mainly due to the supply of early profit factors, seasonal maintenance and environmental protection during the Spring Festival, the rhythm of partial resumption of production and the demand side after the Spring Festival to recover more than expected, superimposed inventory low active replenishment expectations, resulting in a phased dislocation of market supply and demand.
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As of April 23, the spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 109,500~113,000 yuan/ton, and the average price was reported at 111,250 yuan/ton. However, its current price of around 110,000 yuan/ton is far from the high point of 567,500 yuan/ton in November 2022.
Therefore, in the context of the sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices compared with the previous two years, many sodium power projects have been forced to run aground. In the context of the "soaring" price trend of lithium carbonate in 2022, it signed a joint investment with Jiusen New Energy to establish Hunan Haosen Sodium New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and in late April 2023, won 100% of Haosen Sodium Power In August 2023, Shunhao shares of equity also announced that due to changes in the industry environment and the company's business development needs, the company's sodium battery R&D project investment budget is higher than the planned amount, and the development progress lags behind the domestic leading enterprises. However, because the company is still in the early stage of investment in the new energy sodium-ion battery business, it has not carried out substantive business since its establishment, and the expenditure is small, so the termination of the project will not have an actual impact on the performance of Shunhao shares.
Although the current environment of lithium battery has plummeted the advantages of sodium-ion batteries, considering its advantages in resources, cost, low temperature performance, over-discharge performance, safety performance, and rate performance, many "professional" battery companies are still working hard in the sodium battery industry.
BYD also publicly stated in early April that it is expected to realize the pilot of the comprehensive application scenario of charging and swapping of large cylindrical sodium-ion battery electric two-wheeled vehicles in Shenzhen in June, realizing the intelligent integration of vehicles, cabinets and electricity. In January this year, China's new energy vehicle brand JAC Yttrium delivered the world's first sodium battery car. In 2023, CATL's first-generation sodium-ion battery cells will be launched for the first time. The battery cell can be charged for 15 minutes at room temperature, and the power can reach more than 80%, which not only lowers the cost, but also realizes independent and controllable industrial chain.
Electric two-wheeled vehicle explosions and fires are frequent, sodium batteries are expected to form a replacement?
It is worth mentioning that in recent years, with the rapid popularity of electric two-wheelers, there have been endless incidents of lithium-ion battery fires and explosions. On February 23, 2024, 15 people were killed in a community in Nanjing due to a sudden fire on electric bicycles, which pushed the inability of electric vehicles to be charged at home to the hot search. According to the previous data of the National Fire and Rescue Administration, a total of 18,000 electric bicycle (electric moped) fires will be reported in 2022, of which 3,242 fires caused by battery failure (mostly electric bicycle rechargeable batteries) in residential places will be reported, and its "power" can be seen.
In this case, the sodium-ion battery with higher safety has returned to people's attention, and CITIC Securities also released a research report on March 18 pointing out that it is difficult for lithium batteries to achieve a balance between cost and performance in two-wheeled vehicles, and its safety incidents have repeatedly attracted industry and social attention. At present, the two-wheeler industry is looking for an alternative to lithium batteries, and sodium batteries are expected to be an ideal choice because they can achieve a balance between performance and cost. In January 2024, Yadea became the first company to promote sodium battery products to the market.
CITIC Securities believes that this process will further enhance the product competitiveness of electric two-wheelers, help two-wheelers expand overseas, and will also promote two-wheelers to further replace fuel motorcycles in China. In this process, the leading position of two-wheeled vehicles is rising, and the business continues to expand backwards to the industrial chain. It is recommended to actively explore sodium batteries, and can enjoy the expansion of the industry and the improvement of the leading position of the two-wheeled vehicle leader.
According to battery China, in the field of electric two-wheeled vehicles, in addition to BYD, Huayu New Energy has also begun to support Yadea to realize the application of sodium charging and battery swapping for electric two-wheeled vehicles; In addition, Fujian Mengshi and Qingnada Technology have also been supporting electric two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles with customers. According to industry predictions, sodium-ion batteries are expected to replace lead-acid batteries in the field of electric two-wheeled vehicles, and will become one of the main application scenarios of sodium batteries in the future.
Sodium electricity also has a fight in the field of energy storage!
In the field of energy storage, the future of sodium-ion batteries should not be underestimated, the extreme imbalance in the distribution of lithium resources and the relatively high cost still make the reserves far exceed that of lithium, widely distributed and low-cost sodium-ion batteries can occupy a place with undoubted strength under the pressure of lithium-ion batteries. At the end of 2023, among the 56 projects shortlisted for the new energy storage pilot demonstration projects announced by the National Energy Administration, two sodium-ion battery projects were shortlisted.
Wu Hui, president of the China Battery Industry Research Institute, predicts that by 2030, the global demand for energy storage will reach about 1.5 terawatt-hours (Twh), and sodium-ion batteries are expected to gain a large market space. It said that from grid-level energy storage to industrial and commercial energy storage, to household energy storage and portable energy storage, sodium electricity will be widely used in the entire energy storage products in the future.
However, at the same time, just like the distance of solid-state batteries, some experts believe that sodium-ion batteries still have a long way to go before they are truly large-scale applications. Yu Qingjiao, secretary general of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, also said that the current sodium battery industrialization is facing challenges such as low energy density, technology to be mature, supply chain to be improved, and theoretical low-cost level has not yet been reached.
Recently, the successful development of the country's first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage system has brought hope to the sodium-ion industry again. It is reported that the project team composed of China Southern Power Grid Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd., China Southern Power Grid Energy Storage Co., Ltd., Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and other units has recently successfully overcome the technical problems of large-scale energy storage of sodium-ion batteries, completed the development of long-life, wide-temperature and high-safety sodium-ion energy storage batteries, and successfully developed the country's first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage system, and the overall technology has reached the international leading level.
SMM believes that the sodium electricity industry in 2024 will be a year of technological breakthroughs and unified coordination of various main materials. In the new energy industry, stable quality improvement and rapid cost reduction are the goals of the year and even the next few years. SMM believes that the sodium electricity industry has never lacked passion, but what it lacks is solid technological innovation and product innovation. The development of sodium electricity requires collaborative innovation of the whole industry, building new quality productivity, improving quality and efficiency, and opening up the blue ocean market. Sodium battery needs to break a new path for the development of the new energy industry when the cost of lithium battery is reduced to the limit, continue to reduce the cost of energy storage, and improve the utilization efficiency of sustainable new energy. While the whole sodium industry is highly collaborative and innovative, it is expected that leading enterprises will continue to emerge in the industry. The leading enterprises have the strength to grow rapidly, be inclusive, open, and broaden the road of sodium electricity commercialization. The dark horse of the sodium electricity industry also needs to be killed in a timely manner in each link of the industrial chain, learn from each other's strengths, and jointly build an ecology of sodium electricity.
Institutional Reviews
Huatai Securities said that in the application scenarios of new energy vehicles, sodium batteries have brought differentiated choices to consumers with better low-temperature performance, safety performance and economy. 2024 may be the first year of large-scale application of sodium batteries, continue to be optimistic about the development potential of sodium batteries, and it is recommended to continue to track the application progress of leading sodium battery companies, the mass production and cost reduction progress of battery material enterprises, and pay attention to the industrialization of the three technical routes simultaneously.
Guolian Securities predicts that the domestic demand for sodium batteries is expected to reach 32.9GWh in 2025, corresponding to a market space of about 20.37 billion yuan. According to the analysis of industry institutions, in the context of the rapid development of electric vehicles, smart homes, Internet of Things and other fields, reliable and efficient energy storage technology is more needed as support. Therefore, the sodium-ion battery energy storage industry has a wide range of application prospects and development space.