Tesla's recent moves have continued, what did Musk predict that would lead to such a big battle?
One: Tesla's big battle: breaking the contract with college students, laying off employees, cutting prices, and compressing production capacity
On April 24, a number of netizens said on social platforms that they were unilaterally terminated by Tesla after getting a job offer.
It is understood that Tesla's reason for giving fresh graduates is that the company's policy has been temporarily adjusted and the position has been cancelled. As compensation, Tesla will compensate the fresh graduates for one month's salary.
Tesla's contract with a college student was very sudden and unexpected.
This is a surprise for college students. Before he left school, he was taught a lesson by society.
THE COMPENSATION OF ONE MONTH'S SALARY IS FAR FROM COMPENSATING FOR THE DISRUPTED CAREER PLANS OF COLLEGE STUDENTS AND THE MISSED JOB OPPORTUNITIES AFTER RECEIVING AN OFFER FROM TESLA.
In addition to breaking the contract with college students, Tesla recently announced a 10% global layoff and quickly implemented it. It's fast, and it's very much in line with the style of a technology-based company.
The editor has always opposed layoffs. It is very submissive for companies to treat their employees as toilet paper, especially for college students who have not yet stepped out of the country.
Tesla's wave of operations is despicable. As a result, the aura of foreign companies has dimmed.
But from a legal and business perspective, Tesla's actions are honorable but not illegal.
It is worth noting that in addition to breaking the contract with college students and laying off 10% of employees, Tesla also announced price cuts, and the prices of major models around the world have dropped by varying degrees.
In addition, Tesla's supplier also broke the news that Tesla is reducing production capacity.
Recently, some Tesla suppliers said that Tesla's Shanghai factory is their company's largest customer, and Tesla's orders have been very stable for more than a year, and this sudden order cut has had a significant impact on them. "We're expecting to lay off people as well, otherwise we won't be able to survive. ”
Breaking contracts with college students, drastically laying off employees, reducing sales prices, and compressing production capacity, Tesla's series of combination punches all point to a common goal: open source and reduce expenditure, maintain cash flow, and prepare for winter.
It's like Vanke's forward-looking slogan of "live".
Tesla is decisive, and Musk, as the soul of Tesla, must have a relatively clear judgment on the future of the new energy vehicle industry.
So, what are the unexpected possibilities for the new energy vehicle industry in the future?
First: the real estate of the new energy vehicle industry
The real estate of the new energy automobile industry is mainly manifested in: excessive capital influx into the new energy automobile industry, new energy vehicle companies have invested heavily in new bases to expand production capacity, and the wind of layoffs has begun to spread in the industry.
These characteristics are the characteristics of the real estate madness from prosperity to decline.
About the excessive amount of money pouring into the new energy vehicle industry.
Last year, Weilai and Hechuang Automobile both received sovereign capital investment from Middle Eastern countries, and Nezha Automobile recently received a strategic investment of 5 billion. There are other types of short-term funds that also enter the main body of new energy vehicles in the form of various VAMs and creditor's rights.
In 2022, the number of investment and financing events in China's new energy vehicle industry reached 98, with an investment and financing amount of 71.393 billion yuan.
From January to July 2023, the number of investment and financing events in the industry will be 44, with an investment and financing amount of 18.958 billion yuan.
In terms of invested enterprises, the main representative ones are:
NEV automakers have invested heavily in new bases to expand production capacity.
Car companies that have received sufficient long-term investment have capital investment to build factories, and various car companies have successively established large-scale production bases in Hefei, Chongqing and Xi'an. At present, China's automobile production, including the investment in production bases, has far exceeded the demand in China.
Major car companies are in a frenzied melee. Almost every car company has set quite high annual sales targets.
Such a frenzied state is a bit similar to the situation when real estate is booming, and major real estate companies are scrambling to set 100 billion sales targets and trillion sales targets.
The wind of layoffs began to spread in the industry.
After the peak of the real estate industry, there have been industry-wide layoffs. At present, there are also news of layoffs in the new energy vehicle industry from time to time, and it is not ruled out that there will be industry-wide layoffs in the later period.
Second: there is a high probability that overcapacity has been formed.
As mentioned above, a large amount of capital has poured into the new energy vehicle industry, and major car companies are vying to invest in building factories after getting enough investment, plus the original traditional car companies have joined the new energy vehicle industry. At present, China's automobile production capacity has far exceeded the capacity of the Chinese market.
The reality is that the capacity of China's new energy industry does not seem to be allocated to the Chinese market, but to the world market.
Going overseas has become an effective way for China's new energy industry to pour production capacity.
But exports won't be smooth sailing, and Yellen's trip to China in April complained about China's auto overcapacity. Chinese cars going to sea will inevitably encounter the encirclement and interception of US gangs.
If the passage to the sea is blocked, China's automobile production capacity will be more involuted, and it will be a mess, even if Tesla is an American company, in the face of the Chinese army that is blocked from going to sea and turns back, it also needs to make adequate preparations in advance.
Third: the contest between China and the United States.
The game between China and the United States has been launched from dark to bright, from the real economy to the financial field.
On April 24, there was even news that the United States intends to remove Chinese financial institutions from SWIF, a degree of decoupling that is almost equivalent to Russia's treatment.
Considering the uncertainty of the U.S. election, the candidate's toughness against China is the biggest means of canvassing for votes, and it is expected that the contest between China and the United States will only become more intense.
Revolving Door: The Men Behind Musk
As we all know, the United States does not separate politics and economics, and follows a revolving door system.
The so-called "revolving door" refers to the phenomenon that many US politicians "become officials when they enter and become businessmen when they leave."
Under former President Donald Trump, the first Secretary of State Tillerson was "rotated" from the position of an executive at the oil giant ExxonMobil, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin came from the Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs, and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper was a former executive at the military-industrial company Raytheon, and after leaving the government, he joined the high-tech company Epirus.
Therefore, Musk will also have a think tank behind him, which may make policies in the government, or implement policies. It is these men who give advice to Musk.
Tesla's series of combo punches may have come from the advice of these think tanks. This series of combinations is forward-looking.
Perhaps, a year or a year and a half later, when we look back, we will say to Musk: I rub, awesome!