[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.4.24
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively higher, and then showed a mixed trend, with more than 3,700 stocks rising and falling less, with a half-day turnover of 482.8 billion and a net inflow of northbound funds of 1.795 billion.
The stock market has shrunk in the past two days, and resource stocks have collectively fallen, which is actually good news in my opinion. Looking at the technology sector again, the performance in the past two days has been quite tough, rising against the market, obviously, smart money is taking the opportunity of the pullback to quietly absorb technology stocks, this signal is worth paying attention to, perhaps indicating that technology growth stocks are expected to take over the baton and become the protagonist of the next stage of the market.
From the technical level as a whole, the market is currently supported by the 60-day moving average, and the upper is suppressed by the 5-day moving average, and it is estimated that the shock pattern between 3000 points and 3100 points will be maintained in the short term.
From the perspective of sectors, Web3.0, Eastern Data and Western Computing, and home appliance parts led the rise today, while blade batteries, decoration building materials, and photovoltaic equipment led the decline today.
From the perspective of capital, there was a net inflow of auto parts, cloud computing and TMT, and a net outflow of power equipment, new energy and new energy vehicles.
From the perspective of the index, Hang Seng Internet technology, cloud computing, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet rose first, while new energy, CS new energy vehicles, and CSI new energy ranked last in daily gains.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, 20-week moving averages are golden crosses, MACD indicator golden cross, red column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross convergence upward, J value probe top turning head, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 30-week moving average, and the technical upside space is open, and the upper pressure is near 3130 points, that is, near the 60-week moving average, and it will encounter real big resistance at that time.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day moving average golden cross 10-day, 20-day moving average; MACD indicator death fork, green column expansion, indicator line running below the 0 axis; KDJ indicator death fork spread downward, J value bottomed; BOLL channel opening spread, stock index near the middle track.
Analysis: In the short term, as I said before, although the technical side has achieved a breakthrough, but did not open the upper space, today the index has fallen below several important support lines, and is still maintained in a narrow range of shocks.
【Fundamentals & News】
The Ministry of Finance said that it will start the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in a timely manner according to the allocation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. (Treasury bonds)
· The IMF predicts that by 2025, Japan's nominal GDP will be overtaken by India, falling to the fifth place in the world. (India)
In the near future, the Ministry of Finance will work with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments to implement a new round of financial support policies for small and medium-sized enterprises. (Specialized, special and new)
Musk said that the humanoid robot Qptimus may be sold by the end of next year. (Robot)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.11, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Component Index: P/E ratio of 20.25, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 25.83, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 42.09, low valuation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.65, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.21, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 21.36, undervaluation.
【Plate Analysis】
Hong Kong stocks: Hong Kong stocks have recently shown signs of bottoming out, which can't help but make me look forward to the future of Hong Kong stocks. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has launched a series of new policies, such as lowering the entry threshold for stock ETFs under the Stock Connect and accepting REITs into the Stock Connect, which have greatly broadened investment channels and enriched the product categories of the Hong Kong stock market, which is like injecting new vitality into the Hong Kong stock market and allowing more people to see its investment potential. In particular, the inclusion of the RMB stock trading counter in Hong Kong Stock Connect has attracted a large number of RMB funds to participate in Hong Kong stock trading, which has undoubtedly brought more liquidity to the Hong Kong stock market.
From a technical point of view, although the Hong Kong stock market has also experienced a relatively large adjustment before, but yesterday it showed a strong rebound momentum, such as the Hang Seng Index, which has successfully broken through the key position and gained a firm foothold, and Hang Seng Technology also stood on 3500 points, indicating that the internal momentum of the market is strong, and investors' confidence in Hong Kong stocks is gradually recovering. In terms of capital, southbound funds have continued to have a net inflow in the near future, with a cumulative net inflow of more than 60 billion yuan since April, which also reflects the market's optimism about Hong Kong stocks.
Let's talk about valuation. Compared with other major markets, the valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks can be said to be quite obvious. The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index is only 8.58 and the PB of the price-to-book ratio is 0.85, compared with the PE of the CSI 300 Index of 11.74 and PB of 1.27, and the PE of MSCI China is 12.26 and PB is 1.30. Moreover, the Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index also shows that A-shares have a premium of 48.93% over H-shares, which also provides investors with potential arbitrage space.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: None.
Ready to get on the bus: CSI environmental protection, building materials.
Prepare to get off: China General Internet.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.