Just three days after Israel announced its strike on Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city, a bunch of events followed. According to the Observer, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu first alluded to Defense Minister Gallant for leaking information about sensitive meetings and warned the latter to "leave if you don't want to do it." After that, the head of the IDF military intelligence, Haliwa, announced his resignation. After that, CENTCOM Commander Fox asked to resign and quit the army. On the whole, it seems that there is a discord between the cabinet and the military. So, against the backdrop of such constant changes, can Israel still fight this war? Let's take a look at it from three aspects.
The first one, the dispute between the prime minister and the defense minister, is probably not a matter between two people.
This time, the Israeli prime minister was unhappy with the defense minister because he found that after a meeting with Defense Minister Gallant, the head of the Mossad (Israeli intelligence and secret service), and the director of the Israeli National Security Service, the contents of which were leaked immediately. Netanyahu said, "I know it's not about the Mossad and Simbert, but who else is it?" Clearly, he pointed the finger at Gallant, and almost openly pointed the finger.
It also shows how unhappy Netanyahu is with Gallant at the moment. Against this background, the resignation of the Israeli military intelligence chief and branch commander can be seen as "taking responsibility" on the one hand, and on the other hand, it may be to advance and retreat with Gallant to put pressure on Netanyahu. The public contradictions between the top levels of Israel indicate that there are already "problems" between the cabinet and the military.
In fact, this is not the first time Netanyahu has fallen out with Gallant. As early as before the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Gallant was abruptly dismissed by Netanyahu when he opposed the latter's judicial reform, but then the protests in Israel intensified and Gallant was forced to reinstate Gallant as defense minister. The reason why Netanyahu cares so much about the "leak" is because the content is related to the negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and some people believe that he has "left no hostages" and has even become an obstacle to an agreement between the two sides.
Previously, it was also reported that Netanyahu insisted on not stopping the fire, and even wanted to lead the war to Iran, just to stabilize his ruling foundation and prolong his time in power. However, regardless of the hostages, many people in the military no longer know "why they are fighting".
Second, after Israel's internal discord has emerged, will this war still be fought? Objectively speaking, it is a bit difficult.
On the one hand, the Israeli strike on Rafah resulted in the death of at least 22 people in the Gaza Strip on the first day. According to the latest figures, more than 34,000 people have been killed in the Israeli army's military operations, and the international community's call for an "immediate ceasefire" is unprecedentedly high. Prior to this, the Security Council had issued three ceasefire-related resolutions, and the UN General Assembly had issued two resolutions, but Israel had not implemented them. In this regard, China has urged Israel by name, and Russia has also said that Israel is disrespectful to the Security Council resolution and should consider sanctions.
On the other hand, the willingness of the United States and the West to support Israel is not as strong as it was at the beginning of the conflict. U.S. President Joe Biden even said that when the Israeli army strikes Rafah, it must not cause a large number of civilian casualties, which is the "red line" of the United States. Britain, which previously supported Israel together with the United States, also expressed "dissatisfaction" with the Israeli army's actions in Gaza, and France took the lead in assisting the people of Gaza. Once it loses the support of the West, Israel will be alone, and the opposition of other countries in the Middle East may become even tougher.
Third, the statement of "Palestinian statehood" has further isolated Israel.
Recently, the Security Council voted on a draft of "agreeing to Palestine's accession to the United Nations," and although it was vetoed by the United States, the United States was the only one to vote against, and 12 members of the Security Council voted in favor, including France, Japan, South Korea, and other US allies, all voted in favor, and Britain and Switzerland abstained.
If Palestine can join the United Nations, it will show that it has become a sovereign state, a symbol of statehood, and at the same time, it will be an important step in implementing the "two-state solution", which is the mainstream opinion of the international community. The US veto has aroused strong dissatisfaction in the international community.
Against this backdrop, Israel even summoned the ambassadors of some countries that voted in favor to express their protest. Its permanent representative to the United Nations, Erdan, became even more arrogant, not only saying that "Palestine's membership in the United Nations is a reward for terrorism," but also threatening the 12 countries that voted in favor to his face, saying that "to talk to you is to play the harp to the cow, and I hope that you will have time to realize how serious the mistake you have made is."
As a result, Israel will be further isolated in the international community, and it will be a matter of time before public outrage will be aroused if the Security Council resolutions are not implemented. At that time, the United States may not be able to block sanctions against Israel. The problem is that anti-war voices are growing in Israel, and when someone in the military resigns, people's first reaction is "why didn't Netanyahu resign?" In this way, Netanyahu will not dare to insist on fighting, right?