Although the U.S. election will not be voted in November this year, the allies seem to be more anxious than the U.S. itself, and all parties have made early moves. Judging from the results of the primary election, Biden and Trump, representing the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States, basically have no suspense in this year's US election. As far as Japan and South Korea, the two allies of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, are concerned, even Japan, which is known as the "spokesman of the Asia-Pacific region" of the United States, feels that it has no idea in its heart and has begun to bet on both sides. South Korea's move is more direct, to prevent Trump's comeback.
Half a month ago, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited the United States, held a meeting with US President Joe Biden, and reached an agreement on enhancing US-Japan security cooperation. After that, Kishida not only went to the U.S. Congress to give a speech in English, but also visited the United States for seven days, which was also the longest visit to a single country since he took office. It is clear that Kishida wants to show before Biden how important the U.S.-Japan relationship is. If Kishida's actions are a "bright line" in US-Japan exchanges, then half a month later, a "dark line" in Japan has also been activated.
According to the Observer Network, on the 23rd, Taro Aso, vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, who is visiting the United States, held a meeting with former US President Trump at Trump Tower in New York. Mr. Trump greeted Mr. Aso at the door and said it was a "great honor" to meet with Mr. Aso. In this regard, the US media analysis believes that because the US election is approaching and full of uncertainty, Aso's special trip to the United States this time is to prepare in advance for Trump's possible "re-election as president of the United States". In this regard, we will briefly talk about three topics.
The first, Shinzo Abe missed once and almost offended Trump, and Fumio Kishida does not want to repeat the same mistake.
In the 2016 U.S. election, Trump represented the Republican Party, and Hillary Clinton represented the Democratic Party. At that time, Hillary Clinton not only served as the first lady, but also served as the secretary of state, and she could be described as an "old man" in politics, while Trump was born as a businessman and could only be regarded as a "rookie" in politics, and it was very obvious who was strong and who was weak. In fact, judging from the election situation, Hillary Clinton also has the advantage. Against this backdrop, then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe bet on Hillary Clinton to win, and after Japan used diplomatic relations, Abe and Hillary held talks in advance, which was loudly condemned by the Trump camp.
But no one expected that Hillary Clinton would appear "emailgate" before the vote, and Trump surprisingly reversed the victory. Such a result also made Shinzo Abe dumbfounded, because Japan's previous actions had "offended Trump". But as prime minister, Abe knew that Japan could not do without the support of the United States, and decided to do his best to "save". As a result, before Trump took office, Abe took the first draft of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and, as prime minister, personally went to Mar-a-Lago to "plead guilty", which was very modest and very low-key.
Abe's sincerity finally moved Trump, in the four years of Trump's administration, not only the relationship between the United States and Japan is strong, but the personal relationship between Trump and Abe is also very good, and the two can often be seen on the golf course. However, after all, Japan made a mistake and took a big corner, and it is difficult to imagine what US-Japan relations would have become if it had not been for the timely "turnaround."
Four years ago, after Trump lost to Biden, then Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga sent a message to congratulate Biden in both Japanese and English. Trump is a very "grudgeful" person, so Kishida did not dare to be sloppy, he interacted with Biden on the stage, and sent Aso to "connect" with Trump under the stage. Aso is the "No. 2 man" of the Liberal Democratic Party, second only to Kishida, not only a real power figure, but also a deputy prime minister of the Abe government, so he will naturally complete this task for Kishida.
In this way, even if Trump is elected in the end, Japan will not be passive.
Second, why should Japan tie itself to the United States?
On the one hand, there is the issue of one's own identity. Japan was a "defeated country" in World War II, and strictly speaking, now it only has the right to "exclusively defend itself" and cannot be armed again, nor does it have the right to invade foreign countries and declare war. Because of this, the goal of "how to make Japan a normal country" has been wanted to be accomplished by every Japanese government since the end of World War II, and the only one that is most likely to help Japan achieve it is the United States. This is because the United States is not only the world hegemon, but also has troops stationed in Japan, and only when the United States "loosens" its ties can Japan advance step by step.
Today, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force has three "quasi-aircraft carriers", the Air Self-Defense Force is equipped with F-35 stealth fighters, and the Ground Self-Defense Force has begun to import "Tomahawks" from the United States, with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers. These standards greatly exceed those of "exclusive defense," but they are all acquiesced in by the United States.
On the other hand, Japan, like the United States, does not want China to rise, but without the support of the United States, Japan will not be able to compete with China at all. Therefore, Japan is willing to use the United States as a "pawn", follow the United States in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and work together to enlist more allies to contain China in various fields. This approach is the "Asia-Pacific Plan" that Abe provided to Trump at the beginning, that is, the so-called "Indo-Pacific Strategy" that has been vigorously implemented by the last two US administrations.
Moreover, with the United States, Japan can also share its "nuclear umbrella", because it not only has to confront China, but also has territorial disputes with Russia, which is a nuclear power, and if Japan challenges the international order formed after World War II, China and Russia will not be polite.
Third, not only Japan, but also neighboring South Korea has also moved, and it is very direct.
According to the latest news, from 23 to 25 this month, representatives of the ROK and the United States are in Honolulu, Hawaii, the United States, to negotiate a new phase of the "cost-sharing plan for the US military stationed in South Korea." South Korea hopes to finalize it as soon as possible. It is worth noting that the 11th Special Agreement on the Sharing of Defense Costs will only expire at the end of 2025, and if the two sides do want to talk, it will be in 2025. The reason why South Korea is in a hurry to do this in 2024 is because he is worried about Trump's comeback, because he threatened to increase South Korea's defense spending when he was last in office.
At present, South Korea has 28,500 U.S. troops, and the average annual cost sharing is about $1 billion, while Trump proposed that South Korea share $5 billion a year, five times the current one. Therefore, of course, South Korea wants to finalize the 12th "Special Agreement on the Sharing of Defense Costs" in advance, because signing a one-time five-year agreement is related to "no price increases" for five years. Besides, even if Trump wins, he will step down in five years. It can be seen that on the one hand, South Korea is afraid of Trump to the core, and on the other hand, it is also calculated deeply enough.
At the same time, it also shows that for Japan and South Korea, they have no idea whether to choose Biden or Trump. If Biden is re-elected, if Trump makes a comeback, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who "revolves around Biden", may not be treated by the "king who understands". In fact, not only Japan and South Korea, but also the European allies of the United States have begun to be anxious, and they are most worried about only one problem - Trump's return, because when he was in power, not only did he "pit" his allies, but everyone did not dare to say it.