After agreeing to the United States to deploy medium-range missiles in its territory and introducing "BrahMos" cruise missiles from India, the Philippines has made another coherent move. According to the Observer, since the 22nd of this month, the 2024 "Shoulder to Shoulder" multinational joint exercise held by the Philippines with the United States, France and Australia kicked off, which lasted for three weeks, mainly including anti-landing and coastal defense operations in hot spots such as the South China Sea. It is said that 16,000 soldiers, including 11,000 U.S. troops, will participate in the exercise, which covers Palawan Province, the western side of Luzon Island and the Luzon Strait, and will be observed by observers from 14 countries. In this regard, we will talk about three topics.
First, in the 2024 "Shoulder to Shoulder" joint exercise, a number of "firsts" have attracted attention.
Judging from the information released by the Philippines, several "firsts" are particularly eye-catching, including: conducting exercises outside Philippine territorial waters for the first time and simulating scenarios such as "sinking enemy ships" and "recapturing islands occupied by hostile forces"; the Philippine Coast Guard, which has repeatedly confronted China at sea, will take part in military exercises for the first time; and the "Typhon" medium-range missile launch system and Standard-6 missiles recently deployed by the US military on the Philippine island of Luzon will also take part in the exercise for the first time.
Earlier, the Philippine side also announced that it would test-fire the BrahMos cruise missile imported from India for the first time in the exercise, and an oil tanker that China had previously assisted the Philippines - which was later converted into a support ship by the Philippine Navy will become a "target" for the test. In this regard, the Philippine side also deliberately explained that the reason for this arrangement was "not intentional". In fact, whether it was intentional or not, everyone understood in their hearts that when sinking the "enemy ship", it was very obvious that they were specifically looking for a Chinese help, and they also deliberately "explained" it, making it clear that it was a signal.
Previously, the Philippine military exercises were basically carried out in 12-nautical-mile territorial waters, but this time, after the United States emboldened it, it was released outside its territorial waters, and this "territorial water" is very likely to approach Huangyan Dao or Nansha Islands. The Philippine Coast Guard's participation in the exercise also wants to "recapture the islands occupied by the enemy," and the implication of targeting China is also very obvious, because in the past year, the international community is very clear about what the Philippine Coast Guard is doing.
It is worth noting that the medium-range missiles deployed by the United States will also participate in the exercise, and we might as well observe how much range the United States has released, in which direction the missiles are fired, and whether they will hit air targets or sea targets. These messages should all be issued publicly by the United States and the Philippines.
Second, the scope of the exercise delineated by the United States and the Philippines is very clear.
Actually, a look at the world map makes it very clear. Palawan Province is composed of archipelagos, and it is also the closest Philippine territory to China's Nansha Islands, and the choice of this exercise is to spread the smell of gunpowder to Nansha and express the Philippines' "tough posture" on the South China Sea issue. Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro made it clear that starting this year, the Philippines will begin to implement the "Integrated Archipelago Coastal Defense Concept" and expand the scope of responsibility of the Philippine armed forces to the exclusive economic zone beyond the territorial waters, so as to ensure that the Philippines explores and develops natural resources in its "claimed" jurisdiction.
In February this year, the Philippine Congress promulgated a so-called "Territorial Sea Baselines Act," which illegally included most of China's Huangyan Dao and Nansha Islands and related waters into its maritime zone.
In other words, the Philippine exercise is like drawing territory, and wherever the exercise goes, the Philippine side may directly carry out exploration and mining activities, and in case of obstruction, the Philippine armed forces cannot be ruled out to solve the problem. Previously, the Philippine ambassador to the United States had publicly shouted that he hoped that the United States, Japan and Australia would work with the Philippines to develop oil and gas in the South China Sea. I have to say that this is what I shouted to China.
To put it bluntly, the "west side of Luzon" exercise was aimed at Scarborough Shoal, because Scarborough Shoal is on the west side of Luzon Island, which is more than 200 kilometers away from the Philippine mainland. In the Luzon Strait exercise, it is an allusion to the Taiwan Strait, because the Luzon Strait is also the closest place to Taiwan Island in Philippine territory, less than 300 kilometers. The US military's medium-range missile system deployed in the Philippines is also in the northern part of Luzon. A relatively obvious signal is that once there is "something" in the Taiwan Strait, Luzon Island is very likely to become a "gathering place" for the United States and other external intervention forces.
Of course, since the Philippines is willing to hand over its territory to the United States as a launcher, and it is aimed at China, then Luzon Island will also become a target for Chinese missiles, which is, in Russia's tone, "a legitimate target in case of trouble." There is nothing wrong with this, if you want to use China as a bargaining chip to make a profit, you must first be prepared to be attacked by China, which is fair.
On the whole, the three exercise sites chosen by the United States and the Philippines "shoulder to shoulder" are very targeted, and they are directly aimed at China, and there is no need for us to avoid this. In the northern direction, the aim is the Taiwan Strait, in the western direction, the target is Huangyan Dao, and in the southwest direction, the aim is Nansha. I am afraid that the Chinese side will not fail to react to this. The Philippine side said that after the exercise began, the sudden increase in the number of "maritime militias" on the Chinese side passing through nearby waters may not be groundless.
Third, the Filipinos themselves believe that Marcos wants to hug the thigh of the United States, but the Americans are unreliable.
Philippine President Marcos's sister Yimei said that she believes that Marcos's current actions against China in the South China Sea are undesirable and may bring danger to the Philippines, and she suggested that Marcos learn from his predecessor Duterte on the South China Sea issue.
And the previous president of the Philippines, Duterte, also spoke out about this, he believes that the Marcos government is doing this now, and it must be the United States instigating it behind its back - don't be afraid, you just have to fight, we are behind. But the United States has proven itself unreliable in the South China Sea, so the Philippines cannot trust the United States and allow itself to be used as a launcher for the U.S. military.
Duterte also bluntly said, "When I became president of the Philippines, there was no quarrel in the South China Sea." Judging from the information recently disclosed by the Chinese side, the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between Duterte and China on Ren'ai Jiao was torn up by Marcos. Not only that, the understanding and consensus reached between China and the Marcos administration on Ren'ai Jiao was also discarded by the Philippine side after it was implemented once.
In other words, on the South China Sea issue, the Marcos administration has completely lost its credibility, just trying to escalate the situation, trigger the two sides to "misfire", and then pull external forces to intervene and make the matter bigger.
In this regard, Duterte's spokesman Locke said that he is strongly dissatisfied with the series of legal manipulations carried out by the current Philippine administration around the disputed areas in the South China Sea. Locke believes that the current government is unable to distinguish between the most important and the most important when making decisions, and he is puzzled by the provocation of China. The Marcos administration is also preparing to launch a second "South China Sea arbitration" against China, which is also very absurd in Locke's view, because China simply does not recognize it.
As for the first "South China Sea arbitration", Duterte has long said that "it is just a piece of waste paper that can be thrown into the toilet". However, Marcos, who is now "going mad", can't listen to all this, and it seems that he will not hit the south wall and will not look back.