On April 24, Kong Fuan, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government, greeted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Straight News: Amid the complex interactions and discussions between China and the United States, how do you think we should receive Blinken during his visit to China?
Geng Xin, Special Commentator: Blinken's visit is indeed slightly different from previous interactions between China and the United States.
This visit was invited by the Chinese side and Blinken was invited by the Chinese side, and the Chinese side welcomed it, which is obviously different from the previous visit. This shows that both China and the United States realize that although there are various differences, especially the United States, there are many negative actions, both sides still hope to implement the consensus reached by the Chinese and US heads of state at the "San Francisco Meeting". At the same time, it sends a signal to both domestic and international communities that "China and the United States are still effectively managing their differences and developing steadily, and are exchanging views on international and regional issues of common concern."
I would like to summarize Blinken's visit to China in four sentences: The first sentence is "moving towards a halt and stabilization". The second sentence is "exchanges are resuming", the third is "the pressure of the general election is complicated", and the fourth sentence is "the contradictions still need to be resolved".
Among them, special attention should be paid to the US presidential election, because it has a complex and diverse effect on Sino-US relations. On the one hand, everyone has noticed that hyping up the topic of China in the US election will not only make the US government want to stabilize Sino-US relations, but also make some negative moves against China. On the other hand, because American voters are very concerned about US foreign policy in the general election, according to the poll, 40% of voters regard US foreign policy as their primary concern. At the diplomatic level, whether it is Russia, Ukraine or the Middle East, Biden has shown that Biden lacks judgment and control, which is really lackluster. Therefore, only the easing of relations between China and the United States has room to add points for itself, which will help Biden's election.
Therefore, despite all kinds of resistance and interference, this visit is, after all, against the backdrop of a stabilizing situation between China and the United States, and the "temperature" is significantly higher than last year.
As a matter of fact, the above-mentioned goals announced by the two sides, especially those of the Chinese side, are essentially the "1, 2, and 3 structures" that I outlined not long ago and that the Chinese side clearly put forward during the phone call between the Chinese and US heads of state on 2 April: first, "one major positioning" (i.e., mutual recognition), that is, the so-called "first button"; second, "two major differences" (i.e., friction between the Taiwan issue and high technology), and third, "three principles" (i.e., harmony is precious, stability is valuary, and trust-based). It can be referred to as the "1, 2, and 3 structure", which completely covers the basic elements of Sino-US relations, and can be called the main content of the realistic version of "the way of getting along between China and the United States". To summarize it more colloquially, it can be referred to as: clear positioning, management of differences, and valuing harmony.
In particular, it should be pointed out here that before Blinken's visit, there were too many negative actions in the United States, and many friends could not understand such an "American-style operation", or felt that it was better not to come if such a thing was to come, and there were many voices of various voices, which is understandable.
In fact, looking back at history, China and the United States have struggled for as many years as they have cooperated. Sino-US relations are the most prominent and complete embodiment of the dialectical law of opposites and unity in the past 100 years, and it is not worth making a fuss about. The U.S.-China relationship is the most important relationship in the world, but it is also the most complex and delicate relationship. We should neither have high expectations nor overly underestimate the decline, but should act positively with extraordinary wisdom.
In my opinion, there are four sentences that are important at this time:
The first sentence is called "don't be surprised when you are in chaos". Even if there are some major changes between China and the United States on both sides or multilateral occasions, we should and can "deal with chaos without panic", because the relative stability of bilateral relations and the positioning of the era with peace, development, and cooperation as the mainstream determine that we can do this.
The second sentence is "fighting but not breaking," that is, when serious differences arise between China and the United States, and even when the contradictions are acute, it is necessary to ensure that "fighting but not breaking" at this time, and always maintain a sense of proportionality in the struggle and a system of strategic control.
The third sentence is called "harmony but difference", which is a directional grasp, that is, we should not expect that after some negotiations, running-in, and struggles in terms of goals, we will definitely come together completely. As the largest developed country and the largest developing country, and at the same time the largest capitalist country and the largest socialist country, we are in different national conditions, different stages of development, different political systems, different religions, races, and different civilizations. Achieve peaceful development and win-win cooperation.
The last sentence is "perseverance", that is, no matter what kind of setbacks and difficulties we encounter, we must persevere, maintain full resilience and patience, and persevere.
Straight News: "May 20" is coming, what is your view on Lai Qingde's recent statement and the overall situation in the Taiwan Strait?
Geng Xin: When Lai Qingde recently met with the US delegation, he expressed a relatively moderate attitude. This can be seen as a pre-statement by him on the inauguration of "May 20". Of course, this is not only for Americans, but for everyone. Of course, people will "listen to their words and watch their deeds".
Lai Qingde's attitude, including the overall trend of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, is based on the background of the three major realities of the current situation.
The first is that in the Taiwan election at the beginning of this year, more than 60 percent of voters on the island demanded that the DPP be removed from the shelves and oppose the "turmoil" created by "Taiwan independence." Moreover, in the Legislative Yuan and other countries, the DPP's lame political pattern of "ruling on the small field and the big one" has been formed. This is the basic background of the situation on the island.
Second, the basic political pattern that has long been formed between the two sides of the strait, in which the mainland side has the initiative, dominance, and shaping power to fully control the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Along with the DPP's "weak governance" and the mainland's positive actions of "harder and softer," this contrast of forces between the two sides of the strait has become even more prominent.
Third, China-US relations are "stopping the decline and stabilizing". Despite the negative impact of the U.S. election, "no conflict" and "peace is precious" between China and the United States are becoming the first consensus between China and the United States. If the "mutual recognition" between China and the United States is the first button, then the first important sign in this "first button" is that China and the United States "do not conflict", and the so-called "building guardrails" of the United States also means this. And the most important manifestation of "non-conflict" or "valuing peace" mentioned here is, first of all, Taiwan. Because on other issues, the risk of a major conflict between China and the United States is unlikely. Only the Taiwan issue may become a red line for a showdown between China and the United States. Therefore, the move towards détente between China and the United States is the general background of the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
In such a context, it is not surprising that Lai Qingde made such a statement. As a matter of fact, with regard to the situation in the Taiwan Strait, I predicted before the election that even if the non-green camp wins, cross-strait relations may not be so optimistic due to the constraints of the Sino-US environment and other complex factors, and they will certainly be able to immediately embark on the track of comprehensive relaxation and peaceful reunification. If the green camp continues to be in power, it is also because China and the United States are moving toward "stopping the decline and stabilizing," as well as the political structure of the "small and large government" on the island and the effective constraints on cross-strait relations.
I summarize the characteristics of this pattern into three "basic maintenances":
First, it will continue to maintain the basic facts that "Taiwan independence is unpopular" on the island, that the green camp is "small and big," and that the two sides of the strait belong to one China; second, it will still maintain the basic pattern of peaceful development, integrated development, and containment of "Taiwan independence" despite turbulence in cross-strait relations; and third, it will continue to maintain the "turmoil" in Taiwan-related affairs between China and the United States, but China will always hold the basic framework of relations in which China has the right to dominate, take the initiative, and shape the situation in the Taiwan Strait. The interference and sabotage of some "Taiwan independence" elements and foreign forces cannot change the framework pattern of these three "basic maintenances."
Author丨Geng Xin, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".