Today, it has achieved a sharp rise in shrinkage, although it is somewhat beyond expectations, but it is not surprising that it will rise again, after all, the US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have seen a continuous surge, and then look at today's Asia-Pacific stock market, they have risen well, and there is really no reason for A shares to insist on going their own way and keep falling. Fall more will always rebound, today's rebound of foreign capital is indispensable, there is a net inflow of 4.6 billion, at the same time domestic capital is also rare 1.6 billion net inflow, in the current time window, domestic and foreign capital can collectively do long, it is really beyond expectations, but the virtue of domestic capital, basically can be determined to be a one-night stand.
Although there is little expectation for the pre-holiday market, when the market really rises sharply, it is inevitable that people will be excited, and they are always worried that if there is a big rise, they will fall behind. Judging from the market trend, let's make a simple analysis:
1. Why was the market still pessimistic yesterday, and the mood of the market has changed abruptly today, and what changes have been made in the news?
If it is based on the technical pattern alone, it is normal to rebound after falling more, and the external market has been rebounding, and the Hong Kong stocks, which are also difficult brothers, have continued to rise sharply, and after the continuous decline of A shares, it is natural that there will be a rebound. But there are also positive changes in the news:
First, yesterday's news of US sanctions on Chinese bank stocks hit market sentiment. To this day, media report that the United States has not yet developed plans for the implementation of such measures. Although banks retreated after a slight surge today, it is naturally a relief for the entire market.
Second, last night, the central bank said that the underlying logic of the current long-term treasury bond yield continues to decline is the lack of "safe assets" in the market, and with the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the future, the "asset shortage" situation will be alleviated, and the yield of long-term treasury bonds will also rise. Today, 30-year Treasury bond futures fell sharply, and the entire Treasury bond market weakened. To a certain extent, this has alleviated the tight liquidity pattern of the equity market.
Third, Hong Kong stocks continue to rise sharply, and ETFs related to Hong Kong stocks have risen by about 10% in the past three trading days. Moreover, iconic stocks such as Tencent Holdings and SenseTime Technology have risen sharply, detonating the A-share technology sector.
These three variables, combined with the need for a rebound in the technology itself, are not surprising when the market rebounds.
But the index of the rise is not the amount of amplification of the cooperation, coupled with the market is about to enter the long holiday mode, will affect the enthusiasm of the funds to do long, once the rise, the funds are easy to flee at a high level, today's rebound institutional funds are indelible, but with the virtue of domestic capital, tomorrow will largely flee, the probability of continuing to rise is very small. Taking a step back, if domestic capital really rises before the holiday, the days after the festival will not be easy, only before the festival smashes out of the pit, and the probability of rebounding after the holiday is greater.
2. The shrinkage is rising, the right to set up the stage, the theme singing, especially the small and medium-cap stocks broke out again, whether the so-called style transformation has been formed, and how to understand the shrinkage?
First of all, shrinkage is naturally not a good thing, but shrinkage is the norm before the holiday, and there is no need to read too much. Besides, after the market has been continuously killed, the momentum of its own funds has decreased, and at this time, the market will easily rise with a little force, but at the same time, it also shows that the bulls are not interested.
Secondly, in the context of the collective inflow of institutional funds, the market has not increased the volume, which shows that institutional funds still maintain a cautious strategy, and they are reluctant to enter the market before the holiday, but they are just going long after the continuous killing, and this sustainability will not be very good.
For investors, the focus is on style shifts, and if the style of small-cap stocks is sustainable, the market has a better chance of making money.
As far as the index is concerned, it is mainly due to the positive rebound of the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext to narrow the gap with the Shanghai Composite Index. Today's Shenzhen Component Index rebound also has a lot to do with the technical situation. It is supported by the 60-day moving average below. Due to the constraints of quantity and energy, it is difficult to say that this rebound will be sustainable, and it can only be understood as an over-falling rebound at present.
The standard for judging whether the market can be strong has never changed, there is a amount of energy, there are hot spots, there is a money-making effect, we are defined as the strength of the market, the market's long sentiment is there, you can actively go long. Obviously, it does not meet the conditions of our bullishness now, today only has a money-making effect to maintain a good amount, the amount of energy is insufficient, and the hot spot is in repeated rotations, today's big science and technology collective rebound, not the main line of return, more by the Hong Kong stock big technology rise stimulated, as well as the weekend Securities Regulatory Commission for technology companies good news. Whether it can really strengthen again remains to be seen.
From the big news, the impact of the Fed's postponement of interest rate hikes on the exchange rate, the Middle East trend is full of variables, which directly affects the enthusiasm of foreign capital to do long, and the domestic side, institutional funds continue to flow out, institutional funds have not entered, how to hope that the index will continue to rise, only institutional funds actively enter the market to do long, the market has the momentum to continue to rise, retail investors can only follow the trend, can only create a rebound in the situation.
Previously, we have repeatedly emphasized that no one will believe that the index will stop at 3100 points, and it is a matter of time before breaking through again, but before the breakthrough, we must see the strength of the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market, they are not strong, and the breakthrough of the Shanghai Index is meaningless.
So next, everyone must keep an eye on the Shenzhen Component Index and the GEM. Today's strength is a resonance between the technical side and the news side.
But there is one of the biggest doubts at the moment, that is, after the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles", small and micro cap stocks have been impacted, and they have begun to rebound sharply in the past two days. Obviously, everyone thinks that the hype logic of the market will change, and institutional funds will stay away from small and mid-cap stocks that are not supported by performance. Although it is difficult to determine, at least we must avoid the hype on the theme of indiscriminate performance, and we must put performance in the first place in the future speculation.
3. Tomorrow is Thursday, will it continue to rise, or will it fall?
How the market changes, we must observe from an objective and rational perspective, rather than guessing every day, from these four aspects:
First, whether the northbound funds can continue to return, yesterday the outflow of foreign capital was about 3 billion, and today it flowed into 4.6 billion, which changed a lot before and after, during the opening period, the exchange rate was appreciating, and the inflow of foreign capital was understandable, but after the close, the exchange rate began to depreciate sharply, and the dollar index was also rising rapidly. Originally, the exchange rate has been depreciating recently, so I think it is difficult for the return of foreign capital to be sustainable, if the outflow of foreign capital tomorrow, the probability of the market falling down will increase.
Second, the rare net inflow of domestic capital today, in my memory, since the decline in the second half of last year, there may not have been a net inflow of domestic capital for two consecutive days, it has always been a one-day trip, let alone in the current time window, the possibility of continuous inflow of domestic capital is very small.
Third, nearly 4,200 stocks rose today, 72 rose by the limit, and about 500 rose by more than 5%, and the money-making effect is really good. But it's hard to put a lot of money at the moment.
Fourth, the weight and the theme of the joint rise, the need for news and technical cooperation, tomorrow will not have big good news, it is difficult to say, from the technical point of view, the Shenzhen Component Index below the 60-day moving average is supported, once the rebound, and then face multiple pressures above, and the same as the gem, are facing the pressure of the upper moving average.
From my understanding, today's rebound did not exceed expectations, but the market fluctuated normally, and the momentum to continue to fluctuate upward was insufficient.
The performance thunder in the past few days is very scary, today's Tianqi lithium industry directly fell to the limit, and now it is a dense window for performance disclosure, and there are a lot of performance thunder.
On the whole, I think it is difficult for institutions to pay funds tomorrow to do more, today's rebound is the result of the superposition of multiple factors, after the good news is realized, and then the rebound needs a new positive to drive, technical form, the market maintains a shock pattern.
Operationally, if you rise sharply, you will reduce your position, and if you fall sharply, you will start it, but the premise must be to strictly control your position.