One
Most people may not have imagined that the strongest trend in the past 3 days is actually Hong Kong stocks.
Hang Seng Technology, up 1.8%, 3.4% and 3.6% respectively in the past three days.
On the news side, last Friday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced five measures for cooperation with Hong Kong, including relaxing the scope of ETF products, including REITs, supporting RMB trading counters, optimizing mutual recognition of funds, and smoothing listing and financing channels.
The new rules will help smooth the Stock Connect mechanism, introduce capital and enhance liquidity in Hong Kong's capital market.
But Lao Siji only looks at the essence, whether Hong Kong stocks can rise, or it depends on the capital or foreign capital that accounts for the majority.
According to a survey conducted on Wall Street before, the most crowded transactions were long the Big 7 of U.S. stocks and short China, accounting for 49% and 22% respectively.
In the past 2 days, the 7 giants of U.S. stocks have fallen sharply, and the bears have closed their positions in Hong Kong stocks, which is estimated to be the main reason for the sharp rise in Hong Kong stocks.
Recently, foreign investment banks have begun to sing long Hong Kong stocks, the core is not to sing long China, just to attract more receivers.
Therefore, if there are students who have heavy positions in Hong Kong stocks, they can take profits appropriately.
One
In the past 3 days, the dividends have been falling, and many people are shouting that they have peaked again.
If you think a 1.5% interest rate on bank deposits is more attractive than a stock with a steady dividend of 5%+, I have nothing to say.
If you think that stocks with a stable dividend of 5%+ are more cost-effective, then hold them calmly and don't be distracted by market fluctuations.
Source: Wind, last 10 years, as of 24.4.23
As for the recent sharp drop in coal, it was mainly affected by the sharp year-on-year decline in profits in the first quarter.
Until coal prices stabilize and recover, it is likely that the adjustment will continue in May.
However, as soon as the peak of electricity consumption in summer comes, coal prices will start to rise again, and the profits of coal companies will also stabilize and recover.
If we simply regard the sharp decline in net profit in the first quarter as the norm of the industry, it can only be said that the understanding of coal is still very shallow.
In addition, it is also a prejudice to understand the decline of some coal companies to mean that all coal companies will decline.
For example, Haohua Energy, revenue in the first quarter of 24 increased by 7.6% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 5.1% year-on-year.
For the adjustment of coal, the essence is that it has risen too much in the short term, and the valuation and fundamentals do not match.
The logic of long-term optimism has not changed:
1. As a non-renewable resource, coal prices have been on an upward trend for a long time
2. Through the second growth curve of coal production expansion, coal chemical industry, power generation, etc., the profits of excellent coal enterprises will also rise steadily.
So, all we have to do is buy it at a very cheap price.
The reasonable valuation of coal companies can be given 10 times the price-earnings ratio or 5% dividend yield, so the price with a margin of safety is no problem with 7 discounts, 6 discounts, 5 discounts, and 4 discounts.
As Warren Buffett said, buy something for 1 dollar for 4 cents.
Finally, the risk of investing in a single industry has always been very high, essentially because the performance fluctuates particularly large, and Xiaobai still recommends buying a broad-based index fund or a balanced active fund with a balanced allocation.
Three
Artificial intelligence and micro-cap stocks have risen sharply today, and the speculative sentiment in the market seems to be back.
However, April is not over yet, and there is a five-day holiday on May Day, so I am not optimistic about the sustainability of speculation.
But with the end of the April annual report and the first quarterly report, speculation is likely to make a comeback.
Speculation is also part of the market ecology, and its existence is reasonable.
It's just that most retail investors can't make money by speculating, and it's true.
Luckily, value investing has been working in this Big A.
There are many fund managers with outstanding performance this year, such as Dacheng Liu Xu, Han Chuang, Invesco Great Wall Bao Wuke, Zhongtai Asset Management Jiang Cheng, CEIBS Lan Xiaokang, GF Wang Mingxu, Harvest Tan Li, etc.
Although active funds are almost everyone's talking about these days, as long as there are fund managers who rely on long-term double-digit earnings every year, I will always have confidence in active funds.
This article is the original of Haomai Academy, if you need to reprint it, please indicate at the beginning of the article that it comes from "Haomai Academy". Without authorization, no media or individual shall reprint it in whole or in part, otherwise it will bear the corresponding legal responsibility.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
Earn while learning, just buy the studio, for more content, you can follow @haomai workshop