Written by Star Evening
Editor/ Li Wenjie
排版/ Annalee
The "second share of new tea drink" finally has a name. On April 23, Tea Baidao landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but it broke when it was listed, which was consistent with the tea trend of Nai Xue, the "first share of new tea drinks" that year.
After three years, the whole track finally gave birth to another listed company in the fierce competition. Judging from the performance of Nai Xue's tea after it was launched, the positive effect that this title can bring is minimal, and it is difficult to play new tricks with the "second share of new tea drinks" if you want to come to Cha Baidao. In addition, the market value of Nai Xue's tea was nearly 30 billion Hong Kong dollars when it was listed, and the tea Baidao just exceeded 23 billion Hong Kong dollars, and fell by more than 30% on the first day, which shows the attitude of the capital market.
However, Naixue's tea and tea Baidao are listed at different stages of the new tea beverage track, which also represents the market performance of the direct sales model and the franchise model in different periods. Different from three years ago, most of the brands that adhered to the direct sales route have opened up their franchises one after another, and the degree of market involution is still intensifying.
Now that the peak season is coming, Gu Ming will open 0 yuan to join, Chayan Yuese will open a tavern, and Hey Tea will display tea smart equipment at the Consumer Expo...... Regardless of whether the listing of Tea Baidao has panicked other brands, it is clear that this is no longer a game of selling milk tea.
Listing is a big fall, is the franchise model a loss or a win?
On April 23, Chabaidao landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and finally took off the title of "New Tea Drink Second Share", issuing 148 million shares at an issue price of HK$17.50 per share, raising HK$2.586 billion. But as predicted, Chabaidao broke on the first day of listing, opening 10.06% lower, and as of press time, the stock fell 26.86%, with a share price of HK$12.8 per share and a market value of HK$18.914 billion.
Judging from the results alone, the franchised brand did have a surprise on the road to listing, but the performance after listing was hardly satisfactory. However, some people believe that the listing of Tea Baidao will re-examine the playability of the franchise model, and some people even begin to put forward the view that the franchise model will be the ultimate destination of the new tea brand.
Tea Baidao share price
In fact, since June 2021, Nai Xue's tea has won the title of "the first share of new tea drinks", and there has been no second brand on this track that has been successfully listed. For this position, there are many conjectures from the outside world, initially most people think that the second to go public will be Heytea, after all, from the brand positioning, market share and business model, Heytea is similar to Nai Xue's tea tonality, and the pace of racing in the capital field is also comparable.
Later, perhaps Heytea temporarily shelved the road to listing, or maybe it was a little difficult, in short, the competition for the "second share of new tea drinks" has disappeared. Instead, Cha Baidao, which is now successfully listed, and Shanghai Auntie, Gu Ming, and Mixue Bingcheng, who submitted their prospectuses at the same time, have all shown full momentum for the IPO in the past three years.
If you look back at the early stage of the development of new tea drinks, the brand positioning of Hey Tea, Nai Xue's tea, Lele Tea and other brands is about 30 yuan, either focusing on the third space, or focusing on drinks + bread, while the unit price is high, it also maintains the brand tonality. In the case of an upward market, such brands have frequently received olive branches from capital, so they have quickly stood in the position of the head brand.
However, around 2021, the financing events of the new tea drink track have dropped sharply, and the "Hey Tea" has moved towards the route of self-hematopoiesis. As a result, the two-step strategy of first reducing prices and then joining has become their new story. It's just that they came one step later, and they are still a big step behind in terms of market size.
According to incomplete statistics from the zinc scale, there are more than 3,200 stores in Heytea, more than 1,700 stores in Naixue's tea, and more than 428 stores in Lele Tea. However, from the very beginning, there are more than 8,000 stores in Chabaidao, more than 7,000 stores in Shanghai, more than 9,000 stores in Guming, and more than 22,300 stores in Mixue Bingcheng.
When the brand that takes the franchise model has long been involved in the competition of 10,000 stores, the former head brand is still hovering on the scale of 1,000 stores.
After the opening of the franchise, "Heytea" has also mentioned the plan to expand the scale of the store many times, and it is not difficult to see that even if it comes later, expanding the scale of stores across the country is also a must-do.
With the successive opening of major brands to join, as well as the smooth listing of tea Baidao, I am afraid that many people have already made their own judgments on whether the new tea beverage track should adhere to direct sales or open franchises.
More fierce staking of the ground: 0 franchise fee in the first year, opening a tavern
In the face of the upcoming peak season of new tea drinks, all brands should have a plan in advance, whether it is to continue to expand their market share or find more possibilities, it is a critical moment to seize the opportunity.
Gone seem to be the days when you could make a lot of money from franchise fees. In recent days, the zinc scale learned from the official Gu Ming that including 18,800 yuan of brand cooperation fees, 30,000 yuan of operating service fees, 25,000 yuan of training service fees and 25,000 yuan of store opening service fees now have the preferential policy of 0 fees in the first year, that is, a total of 98,800 yuan of franchise fees can be paid in installments during the three-year contract period, 25,000 yuan in the 13th month after signing the contract, 48,800 yuan in the 19th month, and the remaining 25,000 yuan in the 25th month.
This policy of Gu Ming is to further lower the threshold for franchisees, so that more people with limited funds can also open stores, so that Gu Ming can stake more rapidly this year and stand on the high ground from the scale of stores.
Gu Ming's many franchise fees are 0 yuan in the first year
This strategy has been proven, and with more than 20,000 stores, Mixue Bingcheng is a representative brand of rapid expansion with low franchise fees. According to its prospectus, the franchise fee of Mixue Bingcheng is only 7,000 yuan/year in county-level cities, 9,000 yuan/year in prefecture-level cities, and 11,000 yuan/year in provincial-level cities.
Similarly, Tianlala, known as "Honey Snow Bingcheng Pingti", has a franchise fee of less than 20,000 yuan, which has enabled the brand to add more than 7,000 stores in a short period of time.
But this is not the exclusive way to play the waist brand, since the beginning of this year, Heytea's latest franchise policy has also changed, the franchise fee of 29,800 yuan can be shown to be free, and the start-up capital for opening a store has dropped to 100,000 yuan. Heytea, which has been open for franchise for nearly a year and a half, has exceeded the number of franchised stores, and with the further reduction of the threshold, Heytea has also moved towards a high-speed state.
In fact, the focus of competition in the new tea beverage track has gradually transitioned from product taste innovation to the contest of scale and profit, so even the former head brands have to panic.
To be a franchised brand to pursue speed, to be a direct brand to broaden the breadth. On April 15, the new brand Day and Night Poetry Tea Art and Culture Bistro (hereinafter referred to as "Day and Night Poetry Wine Tea") opened five stores in a row, focusing on special tea and wine, and selling alcoholic products at all times.
Tea and beauty open a tavern and sell desserts
Although the bistro is no longer a popular format, it is a new expansion after the major brands of tea, coffee and lemon tea. Chayan Yuese, which has not been open to joining, not only lags behind significantly in the scale of stores, but also erodes the minds of users who have managed to occupy it with great difficulty. Therefore, the somewhat "panicked" tea face has to enrich the product line, enhance its own brand vitality, improve competitiveness, only rely on the thin core of tea face and color can not continue to win in the new tea drink track.
This summer, brands at any stage will have to go all out to meet more difficult challenges.
The cake is getting bigger and the direction is getting smaller
Although the volume of the new tea drink track has not been as loud as before in recent years, the market is still there. According to the "2023-2024 Annual Development Report of China's Tea Industry" recently released by NCBD, the market size of new Chinese tea drinks will reach 193.3 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year, and it is expected that by 2025, the market size of new Chinese tea drinks will approach 250 billion yuan.
In the case that the overall market size still has a lot of room for exploration, it is understandable that each brand will accelerate its expansion with a franchise model and expand its territory as much as possible. However, under the general direction of staking land, there is actually a more detailed development direction.
First, go to sea.
The era of savage running for new tea drinks has passed, and the sooner we look for an incremental market, the better. It has almost become a consensus to seize the opportunity in a broader overseas market. For example, Mixue Bingcheng specifically mentioned in the prospectus that the company plans to establish a multi-functional supply chain center in Southeast Asia to strengthen the company's local production capacity for ingredients such as fruit products and small ingredients, and focus on the use of locally sourced raw materials, as well as promote the company's overseas R&D and digital supply chain operations. There are also brands such as Tianlala, a little bit, and Coco, which are also speeding up the process of going overseas.
Second, demand segmentation.
After the evolution from milk tea to fruit tea, new tea brands have played with popular and unpopular fruits, but their appeal to consumers is still declining year by year. Therefore, digging out more subdivided or niche taste needs is the next key point to test the innovation level of brands. For example, Grandma's hand-made buffalo milk base out of the circle and hand-made small ingredients out of the circle, Blueglass with a large number of live probiotics as a gimmick...... They all reach consumers from a smaller incision, creating a more unique brand atmosphere.
Third, it's healthier.
Since last year, "healthier" has become a new round of upgrading direction for new tea drinks. The use of raw materials such as fresh milk, fresh fruits, and tea, which highlight naturalness, health, and freshness, has become an important criterion for consumers when making decisions. After the start of the "nutrition grading" pilot, Bawang Tea Ji and Nai Xue's tea are the first batch of new tea drink "Nutritional Choice" logo pilot brands. According to data from Shanghai stores, the proportion of sales of beverages rated as grade A and grade B has continued to rise, and nearly seventy percent of consumers have taken the initiative to choose grade A and grade B drinks after understanding the guiding significance of the "nutritional choice" label.
On the whole, the volume of the new tea beverage track has reached a very high peak, and a standardized, specialized, branded, and large-scale development path has been formed. However, white-hot competition is still inevitable, whether it is to join the store or choose to go public, the challenges to face in the future are similar.