► Fliggy: During this year's May Day holiday, the popularity of domestic travel bookings for many services continued to significantly exceed that of the same period in 2019, with group tour bookings doubling and car rental increasing by more than 5 times. Outbound travel ushered in a peak in bookings, with bookings for related services recording a strong growth of nearly 100% on top of last year's rapid rebound. Up to now, the number of bookings for international hotels, air tickets, car rentals, etc. has far exceeded that of last year's May Day.
► The Paper: Japan's 2-year government bond yield rose 35bp to 0.286% on April 23, rising to its highest level since October 2009.
► UNCTAD: FDI and GVC growth are no longer in line with GDP and trade growth, indicating significant changes in the global economy, FDI growth has stagnated by nearly 0% amid heightened protectionism, rising geopolitical tensions and increased investor caution, and recent global conflicts and crises have disrupted the usual investment patterns, leading to instability in investment relations and limited opportunities to benefit from strategic diversification.
Macroeconomic
1. Ministry of Finance: Support the gradual increase in the trading of treasury bonds in the open market operation of the central bank. Promote the promulgation of regulations on the management of state-owned financial capital as soon as possible. Improve the tax system of the capital market and improve the policies conducive to the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market. Support large state-owned financial institutions to become better and stronger, and strengthen the functional positioning of policy-based financial institutions.
2. National Development and Reform Commission: Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Finance completed the screening of local government special bond projects in 2024, screening and passing about 38,000 special bond projects, and the demand for special bonds in 2024 is about 5.9 trillion yuan, laying a solid project foundation for the issuance and use of 3.9 trillion yuan of special bonds this year.
3. Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: In the first quarter, 3.03 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country. According to this year's target of "more than 12 million new urban jobs", one-quarter of the annual task has been completed in the first quarter. In March, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2 percent, and the employment situation was generally stable.
4. National Development and Reform Commission and Central Bank: Accelerate the promotion of credit legislation. Promote the promulgation of the "Law on the Establishment of Social Credit" as soon as possible, increasing the level of legalization in the establishment of the social credit system. Strengthen overall planning for the establishment of the social credit system, carry out research and planning on the main connotation and overall framework of the social credit system with Chinese characteristics, and clarify the goals and tasks for the next phase of construction.
5. The World Meteorological Organization: Released the "State of the Asian Climate 2023" report, climate change and extreme weather have hit Asia hard, the long-term warming trend is accelerating, Asia is the most disaster-prone region in the world, water-related hazards are the biggest threat, extreme heat is becoming more serious, melting glaciers threaten future water security, and sea surface temperature and ocean heat are at record highs.
Real estate dynamics
1. Shanghai: It is expected that no less than 15 "urban village" transformation projects will be launched this year. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the urban village project around the central urban area will be fully launched, by the end of 2027, the urban village project around the central urban area will be fully completed, and the transformation of urban villages in key areas such as five new cities will be promoted on a large scale, and by the end of 2032, the urban village transformation project will be fully completed.
2. Yicai: On April 23, at the Chengdu land market auction, 52 acres of land from Liujiang Street, Jinjiang District were won by Jin Mao at a transaction floor price of 24,500 yuan square meters, breaking the record of the highest transaction floor price in Chengdu of 23,500 yuan square meters set in December last year.
3. Anshan City, Liaoning Province: The minimum down payment ratio for the first house is adjusted to not less than 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second house is adjusted to not less than 30%. If a family with many children uses a provident fund loan to purchase a newly built commercial house, the loan limit for one husband and wife to pay into the provident fund will be raised to 700,000 yuan, and the loan limit for both husband and wife will be raised to 1.2 million yuan.
Stock market stock
1. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3021.98 points, down 0.74%, with a turnover of 348.652 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9183.14 points, down 0.61%, with a turnover of 426.693 billion. The GEM index was reported at 1753.16 points, up 0.15%, with a turnover of 178.489 billion. Overall, stocks rose more and fell less, and more than 3,200 stocks rose in the whole market. The turnover of the two cities was 775.4 billion, a decrease of 46.7 billion from the previous trading day. On the disk, education, humanoid robots, Sora concept, underground pipe network and other sectors were among the top gainers, while gold, coal, non-ferrous metals, Zhongzitou and other sectors were among the top decliners. Northbound funds sold a net of 2.997 billion yuan throughout the day, of which 232 million yuan were net bought through Shanghai Stock Connect and 3.229 billion yuan were net sold through Shenzhen Stock Connect.
2. On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.92% to 16,828.93 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3.38% to 3,449.10. The state-owned enterprises index rose 2.12% to 5,954.62 points. On the disk, AIGC concept stocks and webcast concept stocks led the gains, while fuel cell concept stocks and metal zinc concept stocks led the decline. Southbound funds bought a net of HK$2.340 billion. Among them, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net bought 1.641 billion Hong Kong dollars, and Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net bought 699 million Hong Kong dollars.
3. As of April 23, there were 248 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on the same day. The total market value is 340.286 billion yuan, and the transaction amount is 4.065 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities: As of April 22, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 787.929 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.02 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 699.814 billion yuan, an increase of 565 million yuan from the previous trading day, and the total financing balance of the two cities was 1487.743 billion yuan, an increase of 563 million yuan from the previous trading day.
5. Shanghai Securities News: In the first quarter, the public fund achieved investment income of 20.219 billion yuan. Fixed income funds are still profitable, and although equity funds are the largest loss-makers, large-scale broad-based ETFs have contributed more positive returns. Sector-themed ETFs that do not fit the market style also have significant losses.
6. Securities Daily: As of April 22, 117 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange have disclosed last year's annual reports, of which 110 have announced distribution plans, all of which involve cash dividend plans, accounting for more than ninety percent, and the total planned cash dividends are about 4.002 billion yuan. Among them, beiteri, Tongli shares, and Qingju Technology have the most generous dividends, reaching 447 million yuan, 226 million yuan, and 218 million yuan respectively.
7. CICC: Although the proportion of public stock holdings decreased slightly, the overall level was still at a historical high. High dividends and resource stocks were the main trading threads in the last quarter, with allocations increasing, while growth sectors such as TMT and pharmaceuticals saw a significant decline. Pay attention to the export areas with high prosperity, external factors and supply clearance bring opportunities to the upstream resource industry, and the dividend ratio and willingness are expected to increase enterprises.
8. Tianfeng Securities: With the continuous heating up of performance requirements for ultra-hypersonic, high thrust-to-weight ratio and high temperature protection in the military aerospace field, as well as the promotion of high economy and greening in the domestic commercial aerospace field, China's ceramic matrix composite material (CMC) industry chain is expected to enter a stage of rapid growth.
9. Yintai Gold: Operating income in the first quarter was RMB2.773 billion, up 26.52% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB503 million, up 69.73% year-on-year.
10. China Duty Free: In the first quarter, the operating income was 18.807 billion yuan, down 9.45% year-on-year, and the net profit was 2.306 billion yuan, down 0.25% year-on-year.
11. China Telecom: Operating income in the first quarter was 134.495 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, and net profit was 8.6 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year. The net increase in 5G package users was 10.06 million to 329 million, with a penetration rate of 79.9%.
12. Ping An: Operating income in the first quarter was 245.569 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, and net profit was 36.709 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year. The three core businesses of life and health insurance, property insurance and banking resumed growth.
13. Lens Technology: In the first quarter, the operating income was 15.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.52%, and the net profit was 309 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 379.02%. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in the smartphone and computer business.
14. Tianqi Lithium: It is expected that the net loss in the first quarter will be 3.6 billion yuan to 4.3 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period last year will be 4.875 billion yuan. Affected by the fluctuation of the lithium product market, the sales price of the company's lithium products decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit of lithium products decreased significantly.
15. Zhanpeng Technology (5 days and 3 boards): The company is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of elevator door systems, elevator integrated control systems, elevator cars and door system supporting components, which does not involve military-related products and does not have military-related business income.
Wealth Spotlight
1. Shanghai Securities News: The self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing issued an initiative document, requiring banking financial institutions to prohibit high-interest savings through manual interest supplementation, and the income of wealth management products of asset management institutions will be affected. Against the backdrop of declining deposit rates, asset management institutions are actively responding by replacing underlying deposits, increasing the allocation of bond assets, and adjusting valuation methods.
2. China Securities News: In the face of the continuous decline in the rate of return on the underlying assets, recently, bank wealth management companies have once again intensively lowered the performance benchmark of their products, supplemented by preferential rates to retain and attract customers. The "rate war" set off by wealth management products is not a long-term solution to retain customers, and the fundamental way to resolve the problem is to capture the market situation in a timely manner and improve the yield of the product.
3. AMAC: In March, a total of 83 enterprise asset securitization products were filed and confirmed, with a total of 77.194 billion yuan of new filings. The scale of new filings in the month increased by 29% month-on-month and decreased by 25% year-on-year. As of the end of March, there were 2,294 asset securitization products of existing enterprises, with an existing scale of 1,949.027 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.03% from the previous month.
4. CCTV Finance: Recently, a number of shipping companies have issued price increase letters, and the shipping market has set off a "price rise tide" in the off-season. This has also indirectly led to an increase in the price of new and second-hand upstream ships. At present, the shipbuilding market is very hot. In the first two months of this year, both the number of shipbuilding completions, new ship orders, and hand-held ship orders all showed a relatively large increase, with year-on-year growth rates of 95.4%, 64.4%, and 31.3% respectively.
5. Financial breakfast: hot spots are non-stop, track what you want to hear. The latest research has found that sodium-ion batteries can be charged in a few seconds, which is expected to replace lithium-ion batteries, what is the current production capacity of sodium-ion batteries?
Industry Watch
1. Cui Dongshu: China's imported car imports will continue to decline from 1.24 million units in 2017 to an average of about 8% per year to only 800,000 units in 2023. From January to March 2024, 156,000 vehicles were imported, down 4% year-on-year, and the downward trend continued. With the continuous growth of China's auto industry, the transformation of electrification has changed the market demand structure, the demand for fuel vehicles continues to shrink, and the demand for imported fuel vehicles has also declined significantly.
2. Counterpoint: In the first quarter, China's smartphone sales increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 4.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth. Vivo ranks first, followed by Honor and Apple. Huawei's performance in the first quarter was impressive, with a year-on-year increase of 69.7%, while Honor also achieved double-digit growth. Apple's iPhone sales fell 19.1% year-on-year in the first quarter.
3. CCTV News: As of the end of 2023, the country's remaining technical recoverable reserves of petroleum will be 3.85 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, natural gas remaining technical recoverable reserves will be 6,683.47 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and shale gas remaining technical recoverable reserves will be 551.61 billion cubic meters. The new proved geological reserves of coalbed methane exploration were 317.93 billion cubic meters, of which 161.34 billion cubic meters were newly proved and technically recoverable, a year-on-year increase of 712.1%.
4. Trendforce: As energy conservation has become a priority for AI inference servers, North American customers have expanded their orders for storage products, driving the demand for QLC Enterprise SSDs to rise. It is estimated that the shipment position of QLC Enterprise SSD in 2024 will be 30EB, a four-fold increase from 2023.
5. Liaoning Province: This year, it will promote the construction of more than 20 5G factories and more than 10 "5G + Industrial Internet" integrated application pilot areas, and build more than 100 provincial-level industrial Internet platforms. Implement the action of carbon peaking in the industrial sector, promote the green and low-carbon transformation of key industries such as petrochemicals, iron and steel, and building materials, and the total number of provincial-level green manufacturing units will reach 650 by the end of the year.
6. Xinhua News Agency: By the end of 2023, there will be 55 nuclear power units in operation on the mainland, with a total installed capacity of 57 GW, 36 approved and under construction nuclear power units, with a total installed capacity of 44 GW, and 440,000 GWh of nuclear power generation throughout the year, accounting for nearly 5% of the country's cumulative power generation, equivalent to saving 130 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 350 million tons.
7. Medical Insurance Bureau: On April 23, the results of the selection of insulin continuous procurement were announced, and a total of 53 products from 13 companies participated in this continuous procurement, and 49 products were qualified for the selection, with a winning rate of 92%, and the winning price was stable and decreased, which was reduced by 3.8 percentage points on the basis of the first round of centralized procurement price reduction.
8. International Energy Agency: It is expected that global electric vehicle sales will continue to rise, reaching about 17 million this year, accounting for more than one-fifth of global car sales. By 2030, nearly one-third of the cars on China's roads will be electric, while the United States and the European Union are expected to be close to one-fifth.
Company news
1. Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun: As of April 20, the number of Xiaomi SU7 orders has exceeded 70,000, and the annual delivery target for 2024 is more than 100,000 units. We are making every effort to expand our production capacity. Deliveries of the Standard Edition and Max were originally planned to begin at the end of April, but were brought forward to April 18.
2. Yu Chengdong, Chairman of Huawei Automotive BU: From January 1 to April 22, the cumulative sales of all Wenjie series reached 105,000 units, becoming the first new force.
3. Securities Times: Weilai's offline sales stores have launched a subsidy of 5,000 yuan for consumers who have placed an order for Xiaomi SU7 and cannot refund the deposit. The compensation of 5,000 yuan is not cash, but directly deducted from the purchase price.
Global vision
1. Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare: According to data released on April 23, per capita real wages fell by 1.8% year-on-year in February, 0.5 percentage points lower than the preliminary statistics released on April 8. This is the 23rd consecutive month of negative growth, and wage growth has still not kept pace with the pace of price increases.
2. CCTV Finance: On April 22, the 2024 Hannover Messe in Germany opened, with a total of more than 4,000 companies participating in the exhibition. Artificial intelligence has become a "hot spot for competition". Many exhibitors have already started to design and develop products based on artificial intelligence logic, such as monitoring robots to predict floods, agricultural robots to clear weeds, etc.
Financial data
domestic
1. New Third Board: On April 23, a total of 6,186 companies were listed, with no new additions on the same day, and the turnover was 154 million. The three-board component index was reported at 844.75, up 0.10%, with a turnover of 112 million.
2. Domestic commodity futures: As of the close on the afternoon of April 23, most of them closed down. Shanghai tin fell more than 9%, Shanghai silver fell more than 4%, Shanghai gold and coking coal fell more than 3%, Shanghai copper, methanol, Shanghai lead, pigs, international copper, BR rubber fell more than 2%, vegetable oil rose more than 4%, soybean oil rose more than 2%, and soybean two rose more than 1%.
3. Treasury bonds: On April 23, the main 2-year treasury bond futures contract TS2406 rose 0.03% to 101.746, the main 5-year treasury bond futures contract TF2406 rose 0.11% to 103.610, and the main 10-year treasury bond futures contract T2406 rose 0.17% to 104.845. The 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 1.75BP to 2.23%, and the 10-year CDB rate fell 1.16BP to 2.29%.
4. Shanghai International Energy Exchange: On April 23, the main crude oil futures contract 2406 closed at 637.8 yuan / barrel, down 3.5 yuan, or 0.55%. All contracts traded 136882 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,151 lots to 58,601 lots. The main contract traded 116141 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,491 lots to 32,679 lots.
5. The central bank: On April 23, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan was carried out, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, which was the same as before. Due to the expiration of 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase on the same day, zero investment and zero withdrawal were realized.
6. Shibor: 1.7880% overnight, up 0.80 basis points. The 7-day was at 1.8240%, down 0.70 basis points. The 3-month report was 2.0180%, down 0.90 basis points.
7. RMB: The onshore RMB closed at 7.2466 against the US dollar at 16:30, down 0.0414%, and the central parity of the RMB was reported at 7.1059, down 0.0225%.
8. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: On April 23, the trading volume of the carbon emission allowance listing agreement in the national carbon market was 107779 tons, with a turnover of 10.7508 million yuan and a closing price of 99.60 yuan / ton, up 3.47%.
abroad
9. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.3% to 37,552.16 points. South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.25% to 2,622.84.
10. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed up 0.69% at 38,503.69, the Nasdaq closed up 1.59% at 15,696.64, and the S&P 500 closed up 1.2% at 5,070.55.
11. Europe: Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.26% at 8,044.81 points, Germany's DAX30 closed up 1.55% at 18,137.65 points, and France's CAC40 closed up 0.81% at 8,105.78 points.
12. Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.45% to $2335.80 an ounce.
13. Crude oil: WTI June crude oil futures closed up 1.78% at $83.36 per barrel, and Brent June crude oil futures closed up 1.63% at $88.42 per barrel.
14. Baltic Dry Bulk Index: down 4.14% to 1804 points.
· The new power of "sodium" electricity, press the "fast charging button" ·
► Hua Chuang Securities: The global lithium resource reserves are low and unevenly distributed, the lithium resources of the three South American countries (Bolivia, Argentina, Chile) account for as high as 58%, while the mainland lithium resources account for only 6% of the world, as the world's important power battery producer and exporter, the supply and demand gap of the mainland lithium resources is large, and the sodium resource reserves are more abundant, which is several times that of lithium elements. The development of sodium-ion batteries is conducive to breaking through the resource supply barrier. Sodium-ion batteries have excellent temperature performance, rate performance, and safety performance. The sodium-ion battery is suitable for A00 pure electric vehicles, which is highly cost-sensitive and does not require high energy density. In terms of energy storage, sodium-ion batteries have the characteristics of high safety and low cost, and are expected to develop in tandem with lithium batteries.
► Huajin Securities: (Semi-)solid-state sodium-ion batteries are expected to achieve large-scale mass production in 2026-2027. Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, also said that CATL's research team is developing semi-solid material sodium-ion batteries and condensed matter batteries, and their prototypes have been put into production. This new type of battery can store twice as much energy as traditional lithium batteries. The data shows that compared with the energy density of liquid sodium-ion batteries of 90-160Wh/kg, the energy density of semi-solid-state sodium-ion batteries can be increased to 130-180Wh/kg, which has the characteristics of similar energy density, low cost and high safety compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries.
► Dongxing Securities: Sodium batteries have begun to be gradually applied in the energy storage, electric two-wheeled vehicles and new energy vehicle markets. Energy storage, the operation of the Three Gorges Energy and the MWh-level energy storage power station of the State Power Investment Corporation is connected to the grid for power transmission, marking that the application of sodium batteries in the field of energy storage has been recognized by the power generation side energy group. At present, there are 320 million electric bicycles in mainland China, of which 70%-80% use lead-acid batteries. The world's first sodium-ion battery-powered e-bikes were released in 2021, marking the transition from demonstration to mass production of sodium-powered e-bikes. BYD and other car companies are accelerating the application of sodium electricity in A00 models. In the future, with the gradual reduction of costs driven by scale effects, the penetration rate of sodium batteries in small new energy vehicles will continue to increase.
► Everbright Securities: The first batch of product evaluation activities for sodium-ion batteries in China can further promote the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries and the construction of standard systems, and 17 companies have passed the evaluation. The acceleration of industry standards is expected to guide the healthy and orderly development of the industry and lay a solid foundation for the large-scale commercialization of sodium batteries in the future. Sodium batteries are in the ascendant, and priority is given to the "zero to one" negative hard carbon and battery links. It is recommended to pay attention to enterprises that are deeply involved in the silicon carbon industry chain and are expected to benefit from sodium batteries, enterprises that independently develop biomass refining technology to enter the hard carbon industry, integrate and self-build positive and negative electrolyte production lines, and announce that the orders for sodium batteries in hand have reached 3.3GWh, and the target of deeply binding sodium innovative energy to complete the transformation of 3C consumption lithium battery to sodium electricity.