The property market is more miserable, and the old and small ones quietly win.
Fall, fall the worst. Sell, can't sell. Demolition, can't be dismantled.
Every way out in front of us seems to say "this road is not working".
In 2019, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released a set of astonishing data: the number of old communities in the mainland is as high as 170,000, involving hundreds of millions of residents.
100 million house slaves collectively suffer from "building age anxiety". What will save you, my old house?
At this moment, the first batch of owners in China are setting off a super storm of "saving the old and the young"!
As we all know, the tenure of general civil residential buildings is only 70 years.
Have you ever seen a 70-year-old house?
Before the renovation of the old housing in Pengpu New Village, Shanghai, source: Xinmin Evening News
Most of the yellow wall skin is peeling off, revealing the red bricks inside. The wires were tangled in mid-air, and it was shocking to watch. The dilapidated doors and windows of the wooden panels and glass barely hold on, and the walls are so black that you can't see the original color...... The whole building seems to be crumbling.
To borrow the evaluation of an old and dilapidated small owner:
"[This kind of house] is like terminal cancer, and small repairs are like injections, all of which are useless. ”
What's even more unbearable is that the kitchen and bathroom are shared by several households, "three meals a day rotate, and my house burns after your house burns". Every day, I quarrel with my neighbors because of the time and order of use.
Such a house, even if it is given away for free now, many people may not be willing to live in it.
However, after going through demolition and reconstruction, it can become something like this:
Source: It's really called Lu Jun
Not only was the "face" nirvana reborn, but the "lizi" was also reborn. Each unit has its own kitchen and bathroom, and is equipped with a balcony.
Downstairs is no dirty mess, heated swimming pool, gymnasium, yoga room, table tennis hall, elderly care home, early education center, community cultural activity center, etc., these new community only have supporting facilities, all arranged!
Renderings of a village in Fengnan, Shanghai, after the transformation, source: Internet
Non-local residents passing by may think it's a new development from a certain developer.
And I found out that this is not an isolated case.
The old dilapidated and small ones are being rebuilt in situ, and they are blooming all over the country.
Shanghai is probably the city with the largest number of elderly communities in the country.
In the 1950s, the Shanghai government decided to build 2,000 workers' houses for 20,000 families, known as "20,000 households".
Most of these workers' dormitories are named after "XX New Village". In this year's first phenomenal hit drama "Flowers", when Mr. Bao, who dominates the beach, was still a mechanic factory, his family lived in "Caoyang New Village".
A village in Caoyang, source: shells
Nowadays, many houses are "over the age of old". Shanghai, on the other hand, is being demolished and rebuilt in a planned manner.
According to the statistics of "really called Lu Jun", in the past two years, there have been 9 old community projects in Yangpu, Huangpu, Jing'an, Xuhui, Hongkou and other old residential areas that have been demolished and rebuilt, involving nearly 10,000 households.
Data source: Internet and official release of various districts in Shanghai, tabulation: really called Lu Jun
Building 8 of Huapichang Hutong in Xicheng District, Beijing, was built in the 70s of the last century and has become a dangerous building. In 2020, it was included in the "original demolition and original construction" of the dilapidated building, and it is now about to be completed. Residents who are looking forward to moving back every day said excitedly: After the installation of the natural gas pipeline is completed and ventilation is realized, it will be delivered to the tenants.
The residential building No. 2 of Cluster Street in Fengsheng Community, Xinhua Street, Huadu, Guangzhou, was built in the 70s of the last century, and now it is "more than half a hundred years old". In September last year, it was included in the first batch of pilot projects for the renovation of old residential areas in Guangzhou, and began to be demolished and rebuilt in March this year, and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
Zhegong New Village, a teacher's residential building built in the 80s of the last century, has many dilapidated houses. In April last year, the project started reconstruction, with the construction of seven new 11-storey small high-rise buildings, which will be completed in 2025 as planned.
Chengdu Central Garden Phase II, completed in 1998, is the first batch of commercial housing communities in Chengdu. After six years of hard work, 99.9% of the more than 3,000 owners agreed to "self-demolition and self-construction".
The whole country is setting off a super storm of "saving the old and the young"!
There are hundreds of millions of people living in hundreds of thousands of old communities, and the problem they are most concerned about at the moment is
When will it be demolished to my house?
If the old community is to be demolished and rebuilt, one question must be answered first:
Where does the money come from?
From the successful cases of major cities, I have roughly summarized three models.
The first is the Shanghai model, where the local government pays for it.
As the magic capital of the "first economic city", it is quite not bad for money.
In the transformation of Pengpu New Village, the "money ability" is vividly reflected.
You can live in a new house without spending a penny, and the area is bigger than before. During the transition period, there will also be a rental subsidy ranging from 1,900 to 3,700 yuan per month.
Who doesn't want such a good thing?
After the signing of the old housing renovation project in Pengyi Community, the contract rate of rental housing residents reached 99.08%, and the contract rate of property rights residents reached 99.17%.
It only took 7 days.
Fengnan Village, the city's largest demolition and reconstruction project after the "Shanghai Urban Renewal Regulations" came into effect, completed 100% of the contracts for 1,813 households in 29 days.
The issue of compensation, which has always been the most difficult issue for demolition, has also become no longer a problem.
Since the renovation was launched in 2005, a total of 102 houses (including demolition and reconstruction) have been renovated in Pengpu New Village, with an area of 180222 square meters and 4,907 residents have benefited.
The advantage of the "Shanghai model" is that the government takes the lead and concentrates its efforts on big things, which is very efficient.
The disadvantage is that it is a great test of the local government's money bag, and not everyone can play it.
The second type, the Hangzhou model, the owner pays for it.
This model originated from the original site reconstruction of Zhegong New Village in Hangzhou.
Zhegong New Village is the family home of Zhejiang University of Technology, built in the 80s of the last century. Before the renovation, there were even 4 buildings that were identified as C-level dilapidated buildings.
Different from the "Shanghai model", the composition of the reconstruction cost of Zhegong New Village accounts for more than 80% of the residents' contributions. The relevant people in the housing and construction department calculated that more than 500 owners paid out of their own pockets and contributed about the same
500 million yuan.
On average, each household paid nearly 1 million.
Mr. Chen, a retired teacher from Zhejiang University of Technology, invested more than 1 million yuan in this new home, including-
Construction fee of 99,900 yuan: the original property right area is 74 square meters (less than 53 square meters is calculated as 53 square meters), and the capital contribution is 1,350 yuan/square meter
The expansion fee is 690,000 yuan: each household can be expanded by up to 20 square meters, and the capital contribution is about 34,520 yuan/square meter according to the market appraisal price
Parking space fee of 220,000 yuan: After the reconstruction, 400 underground parking spaces will be added, all of which will be sold to residents in the community
Mr. Chen felt that more than 1 million yuan was well spent. Isn't it, the house is larger, the stairs have become elevators, and there is an extra parking space.
Although the Hangzhou model is good, it is a great test of the owner's money bag.
It is not surprising that a retired university teacher like Mr. Chen is already an elite middle-class group in the local area, and has seven-figure savings.
Looking at the whole country, how many owners of old communities in the country can immediately spend more than 1 million to build a house?
The third is the Guangzhou model, in which the government owners contribute half.
This may be the right option for most cities.
The demolition and reconstruction fund of the residential building No. 2 Huadu Cluster Street in Guangzhou is about 300,000 yuan per household on average, which is much cheaper than the 1 million yuan in Zhegong New Village.
When it came time for the meeting, many owners said, "It's so difficult for me!"
Family A has deposited a fixed deposit, but now it is taken out to build a house, and the interest is gone; Family B has a long-term illness and is in a tight economic situation, so it is really impossible to come up with the money; Family C is jointly owned by several relatives, and there are family and property disputes, and no one wants to be the wronged person who pays the money......
Some people expressed incomprehension: didn't the demolition give me money, why do you still need me to pay for it?
More than a dozen owners' meetings were held, and one household visited to do work, and finally there was a solution:
The government subsidizes part of the funds.
If it is a recognized low-income family, a special poverty worker family, etc., a subsidy of 1,000 yuan per square meter. Calculate that a 50-square-meter house can make up 50,000 yuan.
The "Guangzhou model" combines the advantages of the Shanghai model and the Hangzhou model, and cleverly achieves a balance of funds. At present, it is the most promising one to promote.
Although, in the end, it is still the local government that is the party that is responsible for the transformation.
Perhaps we can look forward to the "fourth mode":
Appropriately increase the plot ratio of the original community, and use a part of the land to build affordable housing for sale or rental.
The transformation of the old community has been completed, and the indicators of affordable housing have also been completed, which will pull the upstream and downstream of real estate by the way, and remobilize the production capacity that has no work to open and no pictures to draw in recent years......
In the next ten years, the old community will be demolished and built, maybe it will be able to leverage the huge market of trillions?
The old house has become a new house, and the happiest thing for the owners is that the house price has also risen.
Here's an example. The renovated Shanghai Fangua Lane Community is located in the Suhewan section of Jing'an. The listing price of the old community in the same sector is about 70,000 yuan, and the price of the new house can go to more than 90,000 yuan or even 100,000+.
After the reconstruction, this house price must not rise in a wave?
The price of the old community built in the 80s, source: shell
The price of a new house within 20 years old, source: Shell
Demolition and reconstruction is a chance for the old and broken children to be reborn.
Unfortunately, the opportunities are not equal.
First of all, to be born in a wealthy central city.
On the one hand, the continuous influx of immigrants is always generating new housing demand, and there is no surplus of houses in the central cities.
On the other hand, the amount of original demolition and construction is large, the cycle is long, and there must be a large amount of financial support, and it is simply unrealistic to expect the owner to pay. If it is not financially sufficient, even if the local government is willing to promote it, it will not be able to do so.
At the beginning of this year, the "self-demolition and self-construction" plan for the second phase of Chengdu Central Garden was rejected by the Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.
You see, even Chengdu, a megacity of its size, will say NO to "self-demolition and self-construction". Other small cities are basically out of the way.
Secondly, it is necessary to have the value of the location and occupy the core sector with mature supporting facilities.
The 9 old communities in Shanghai are being renovated, and the areas are Yangpu, Huangpu, Jing'an, Xuhui, and Hongkou, and there is no suburb.
In addition to the 100,000+ neighboring Fangua Lane Community, the Expo Riverside Plate next door to Lane 221 of Baotun Road is a well-known river-view luxury residential area in Shanghai, with a super high density of tens of millions of luxury houses.
The Shanghai Expo Riverside Plate full of luxury houses, source: Shell
Building 8 of Beijing Huapichang Hutong is located in the second ring of Xizhimen, Beijing, and I don't need to say more about this area.
Gongshu District, where Zhegong New Village is located, is the territory of old Hangzhou, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Although Guangzhou Huadu is a suburb, the north and south sides of the residential building at No. 2 Cluster Street are adjacent to Xinhua Market, and almost all the shops on the first floor are prosperous. In the long run, it can firmly hold the thigh of Guangzhou North Railway Station.
Again, the transformation should not be too difficult.
In the case of reconstruction in Beijing and Guangzhou, there is only one building, and the total number of households is less than 50. If it's a larger cell, the difficulty will increase exponentially.
It is worth mentioning that the super high-rise buildings that have blossomed everywhere in recent years not only age faster and are more expensive to maintain, but also have almost no possibility of reconstruction.
Some houses may be destined to decay after a long wait.