A special issue at the end of April
"Earnings Season: Hedging Special"
"Ship Tuyere Special Issue"
Reason for concern: Customs data shows that from January to February, the mainland exported a total of 937 ships, with an amount of 48,253.41 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% in the number of ships and a year-on-year increase of 180.6%.
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Today's market
Due to the disturbance of macro factors over the weekend, compared with last Friday, the market volatility and differentiation were further intensified, among which the Shanghai Composite Index and the Innovation Index both shocked and pulled back and closed in the green. It is worth noting that the pullback of the eight shares in the index is significantly greater than the weight. In terms of hot spots, the recent market style has been significantly affected by macro factors, and when the hedging camp is in vogue, the hot spots of military industry, communications, consumption and medicine, which are more or less risk-averse, have risen against the market, while the figure of the concept of high dividends is hidden.
The reason why the market is volatile again is because of the wild macro volatility over the weekend. Specifically, (1) on April 20, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the $95 billion foreign aid Fa bill; (2) on April 19, there was another big move in the field of military reform (Xinhua News Agency Express), and both of them directly pointed to the security field, so the hedging camp was sought after by the amount of funds in the field, and the prosperity of the military industry was even hotter.
Here I will give you a reassurance, because the capital market has made a series of big moves since last Friday: (1) the meeting issued the "Regulations on the Management of Securities Transaction Costs of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", which mentioned that "the upper limit of the distribution ratio of trading commissions has been reduced from 30% to 15%", ;(2) the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges respectively issued the "Implementation Measures for Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Business" (Consultation Draft) and "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Business Implementation Measures" (2024 Revised Consultation Draft), which mentions " The threshold for inclusion of SSE ETFs will be adjusted from no less than RMB1.5 billion to no less than RMB500 million." And this is also the follow-up measure of the third national nine articles, coupled with the recent establishment of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by the central government, deepening the manufacturing financial services policy, foreign institutions to invest in domestic science and technology enterprises and capital market service technology enterprises and other heavyweight government CE. Judging from this, in the period before May Day, the market as a whole will still carry out a controllable range of shock adjustment (for example, the Shanghai Composite Index continues to fluctuate above 3,000 points).
Generally speaking, in view of the recent intensification of fluctuations in internal and external macro factors, on the basis of maintaining the same frequency resonance with the K-shaped rebound of the macroeconomy, we will continue to adhere to the theme and light index on the basis of keeping up with the rhythm of market operation, and pay special attention to the preference of funds. In terms of operation, refer to the operation strategy below↓↓, remember to buy yin and not yang, and do not chase high.
1. Offensive Line - Science and Technology Innovation/New Quality Productivity:
(1) Polarized and booming production and sales of new energy vehicles, the core is power batteries, auto parts and automotive chips, as well as excellent intelligent driving and flying cars, due to the price reduction tide again + flying cars were closed in a small black house, and then pay attention to the large amount of auto parts and power batteries.
(2) The core of the base semiconductor chip of Kechuang is AI chips, automotive chips and panels/displays, as well as emerging packaging and testing technologies such as Chiplet and HBM.
(3) The core of the surging demand for computing power is computing power, data elements, optical modules and cloud computing.
(4) The core of the new energy with the bottom reversal is power batteries, photovoltaics (photovoltaic equipment and photovoltaic cells in the middle and upper reaches), as well as power grids, wind power and hydrogen energy, focusing on photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment and power equipment and other equipment ends;
(5) The core of the artificial intelligence stimulated by Sora's debut is AI large models and AI chips, as well as AI+ consumer electronics, cultural media, film and television and games in artificial intelligence applications, focusing on large-scale varieties in the May Day concept such as film and television, tourism, etc.;
(6) Multiple policies are favorable for intelligent manufacturing/new quality productivity, the core is industrial machine tools and industrial robots, temporarily wait-and-see, and appropriate attention is paid to the large-scale varieties;
(7) The core of medicine that is out of profit and is reversing at the bottom is innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine, focusing on the varieties that are large in volume.
Second, the defense line - national reform:
(1) National reform +, focusing on non-ferrous metals, steel, gold, coal and electricity in the near future, due to the fact that the manufacturing industry has returned to the expansion range + the situation in the Middle East, a resource powerhouse, has heated up again, but due to the impact of the Chongqing gas incident and the increase in commodity handling fees in the futures market, the focus has been on shipping, shipping and banks in the near future;
(2) Finance, due to the new version of the "National Nine Articles", the short-term focus is on the restructuring news and excellent performance of the brokerage, in addition to the high dividend of banks and insurance can also be appropriately concerned;
(3) The financing whitelist is a good real estate, and it is appropriate to pay attention to the home furnishings and home appliances in the industrial chain, due to the recent negative news such as Vanke, which is generally wait-and-see.
3. Defense Line - Unified Market:
(1) Cross-border trade in the context of the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, the core is cross-border e-commerce, cross-border payment, shipping and logistics, and it is mainly wait-and-see for the time being.
(2) Consumption with certain hedging attributes, such as tourism hotels (visa-free political ce catalysis), jewelry (gold jewelry is hot and Yang Bank increases its holdings of gold), aquaculture (aquatic products stimulated by nuclear pollution news, pork with the bottom reversed) and liquor, and the short-term focus on the varieties with large quantities, or medium and long-term low absorption.
(3) Good environmental protection, especially the core resource recovery, and the treatment of sewage catalyzed by the prevention and control of nuclear pollution, focusing on a small number of large-scale varieties.
In terms of operation, whether it is the main line or the branch line, focus on the varieties that are highly recognized by the funds.
In terms of market liquidity, today's central mother has a net withdrawal of 000 million, an increase of 000 million compared with last Friday, and a total of 1,058 billion net withdrawals in April, and the market liquidity has once again returned to the track of structural tight balance. In terms of capital, today's market volume can total 822.1 billion, a decrease of about 38.2 billion from last Friday, and today's northbound total net inflow is about 1.4 billion, up about 7.9 billion from last Friday. In view of the fact that the market volume can shrink more and more obviously in recent days, for the above-mentioned key outlets, on the basis of controlling the position at hand, the short-term low absorption of the hot varieties with large volumes, do not chase high entry.
On the hot spot, today's market still continues the trend of recent hot spot switching and clear themes, but due to the disturbance of macro factors over the weekend, there have been new changes. First of all, what remains unchanged is that the market hedging camp continues to be sought after by the amount of funds in the market; secondly, the recovery of the manufacturing industry continues to be powerful, and the military industry in the field of security has suddenly soared recently; Today's military varieties such as ships and satellite communications, which are rising against the market, on the one hand, belong to equipment renewal, on the other hand, they are highly overlapping with the Chinese prefix in the concept of high dividends, and more importantly, they are born with security attributes. In addition, the consumption of pork, chicken, liquor, dairy and pet economy, as well as today's sudden strengthening of medicine, is relatively sufficient time and space for adjustment, and each is reversing the bottom of the industry to varying degrees.
Opportunities Sector
In view of the continuous fluctuation of market volume in the near future, the market funds frequently switch between high and low, and then take into account the factors of political and news aspects. Therefore, today I am homeopathic excavation equipment update, military industry and high dividend intersection field - ships, below I will briefly explain the development of the shipbuilding industry, the industry policy and news side as follows slide to view↓↓.
On March 13, the National Standing Committee deliberated and passed the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in", which mentioned "accelerating the scrapping and renewal of old ships with high energy consumption and high emissions, and vigorously supporting the development of new energy-powered ships";
On April 16, the three departments issued the "Notice on Deepening Manufacturing Financial Services to Help Promote New Industrialization", mentioning "expanding the scale of credit loans for strategic emerging industries to support enterprises such as automobiles, home appliances, machinery, aviation, ships and marine engineering equipment to 'go global'";
On April 3, at the regular meeting of the first quarter, the CE Committee of the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Yang made it clear that it would "increase financial support for large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods";
On February 29, seven departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Green Development of the Manufacturing Industry", which mentioned "accelerating the development and demonstration application of green intelligent ships in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), methanol, ammonia, batteries and other power forms";
On April 12, Zhejiang issued the "Action Plan for the Construction of High-end Shipbuilding and Offshore Equipment Industry Cluster in Zhejiang Province";
On the recent news side, on April 20, the second domestic large cruise ship was undocked at the No. 2 dock of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding;
On April 9, the demonstration project of navigation technology and application of inland river ship formation was launched;
On April 2, the world's first marine methanol fuel trading platform and the first green methanol training and certification organization in China settled in Lingang;
On March 26, the LNG transportation and bunkering ship independently designed and built by the mainland went to sea in Qidong, Jiangsu Province.
On March 23, the world's first compressed natural gas (CNG) carrier set sail from Qidong, Jiangsu;
On March 13, the first methanol bunkering ship put into operation in China completed the methanol bunkering test in Yangshan Port.
Ships can generally be divided into two categories: military ships and civilian ships. Civil ships are usually further divided into offshore engineering ships, transport ships, etc., according to their use, of which transport ships occupy the main position. In terms of deadweight tonnage, the total deadweight tonnage of dry bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships, which are also transport ships, accounts for nearly 90%, making them the world's three mainstream ship types. In 2021, oil tankers accounted for 29% of the world's shipping capacity, bulk carriers accounted for 43%, container ships accounted for 13%, and general cargo ships and other ships accounted for 15%.
The shipbuilding industry is a typical long-cycle industry, and since 1986, the global shipbuilding industry has experienced nearly 10 large and small cycles. It has been nearly 12 years since the last high point of ship delivery in 2011, and the ship delivery volume has fallen by 46% compared with the high point in 2011 in terms of deadweight tonnage, and the delivery center has moved up as a whole, and the current cycle may have reached the bottom, and the latest round of delivery is expected to peak in 2024-2026, and the industry's profitability will improve or faster.
The average lifespan of a ship is generally 20-25 years, and as the age of the ship increases, the cost of ship maintenance and repair rises, and the safety of navigation decreases. According to the data of Huajing Industry Research Institute, in 2022, the capacity of ships aged 16-20 years will account for 16.5%, and the capacity of ships over 20 years will account for 7.1%, and the aging characteristics of ships will have an obvious trend. Judging from the average age of the three major ship types along the coast of the mainland, the average age of oil tankers and container ships has continued to rise since 2015. According to the calculation of historical ship delivery, the current ship industry is in the upward cycle of renewal and replacement.
It is worth noting that since the fourth quarter of 2020, the driver of newbuilding price growth has gradually shifted from market-driven to green renewal demand. Thanks to the tight production capacity of shipyards, the continuous release of new green orders (new shipbuilding orders using green fuel main engines) has allowed new shipbuilding prices to maintain continuous growth against the backdrop of a sharp decline in the maritime market. From 2023 to 2027, driven by a series of short- and medium-term environmental protection regulations by the IMO (International Maritime Organization) and the European Union, shipowners will be forced to phase out old ships, and continue to stimulate the demand for new green orders from shipowners. At the same time, as the situation in the Middle East heats up, the oil bulk market accelerates, and the pace of shipowners ordering new ships will also accelerate.
In terms of market space, data from the China Shipping Association show that from January to February, the country's shipbuilding completed 8.26 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 95.4%, undertook new ship orders of 15.2 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.4%, and hand-held ship orders of 149.19 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%. Customs data show that from January to February, the mainland exported a total of 937 ships, with an amount of 48,253.41 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and a year-on-year increase of 180.6%.
In order to let you better grasp the market opportunities of the ship tuyere, I specially compiled and wrote the "Ship Tuyere Special Issue" (with shares)
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Disclaimer
The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. You should make investment decisions independently, bear your own investment risks and losses, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market!(Edited by the investment advisory team, qualification number A0070622040001, qualification number A0070622060009)
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