The demographic pattern is gradually becoming clear.
Recently, various localities have successively released 2023 statistics, among the 17 cities with permanent residents that have exceeded 10 million (according to the 2022 statistical caliber), as of April 22, 14 cities have disclosed the permanent population data at the end of 2023 (Shenzhen, Changsha, and Linyi have not yet been released).
In terms of total volume, Chongqing is still the largest city in Chinese, with a permanent population of 31.9143 million in 2023. It was followed by Shanghai and Beijing, ranking second and third, with a population of 24.8745 million and 21.858 million respectively.
As a member of the "20 million population club", Chengdu is closing the distance with Beijing. According to the data, the number of permanent residents in Chengdu will reach 21.403 million in 2023, and the gap with Beijing will narrow from 576,000 in 2022 to 455,000, gradually approaching the "third most populous city".
In terms of increment, among the cities with a population of 10 million that have published data, a total of 13 cities have achieved positive growth in permanent population, with a total increase of 837,800 people.
Among the cities with positive population growth, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu and Shanghai have added more than 100,000 permanent residents – all provincial capitals except Shanghai.
It is worth observing that these cities with high increments highly overlap with cities with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry.
In Zhengzhou, for example, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production can be called soaring: in 2022, Zhengzhou's new energy vehicle production will only be 70,000 units, and in 2023, it will soar to 316,000 units, an increase of 3.5 times.
Another example is Xi'an, which once "overtaken" Shanghai with a million output and won the "first city of new energy vehicles in China", ranking third in the country with 983,800 new energy vehicle output in 2023, and Chengdu is not to be outdone, with the output of new energy vehicles increasing by 53.7% year-on-year.
In recent years, the new energy vehicle industry has been booming, attracting countless cities to bet. The development of the new energy vehicle industry in full swing has brought a breakthrough for urban development and industrial renewal, and may also be a weapon for the city to "grab people".
The provincial capital is crazy siphoning
In terms of the national population pattern, in the past 10 years, the population has continued to concentrate in coastal and riverside areas.
Specifically, nine cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Suzhou, are located in the eastern coastal areas, accounting for 56%.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director and researcher of the macroeconomic research department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told the Times reporter that since the reform and opening up, due to the superior geographical conditions in the eastern region, especially the southeast coastal area, it can better promote the development of industries and other factors, and there are more employment opportunities, resulting in a stronger ability of the city itself to absorb the population.
"A large number of migrant workers have moved from the central region, the northeast region and some areas in the west with relatively poor economic conditions to the eastern coastal areas, and the eastern region has gradually become the main population carrying area. Liu Xiangdong said.
Taking Hangzhou as an example, published data shows that among the cities with a permanent population of 100 billion, Hangzhou is by far the eastern city with the largest increase in permanent population, and it is also the capital city of Zhejiang Province.
According to the data, Hangzhou's permanent population will reach 12.522 million in 2023, an increase of 146,000 from the previous year. Behind this, it is not only Hangzhou's continuous efforts in talent policy, but also the rapid development of Hangzhou's emerging Internet industry, which has created a large number of jobs and driven the inflow of population.
In addition, the trend of further population agglomeration to central cities is very obvious.
From the perspective of regional distribution, among the cities with a permanent population of 10 million that have published data, there are 8 cities such as Chengdu, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Zhengzhou and Hangzhou as provincial capitals.
Niu Fengrui, former director and researcher of the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Times that the provincial capital, as the political, economic and cultural center of the province, has certain resources and location advantages, and can attract a large number of population and capital inflows, so it has a stronger population gathering capacity.
In addition, judging from the trend of population growth, the attractiveness of the Midwest region to the population is increasing. Among them, Zhengzhou and Chengdu performed well, with population growth of 180,000 and 135,000 respectively.
Ding Changfa, an associate professor at the Department of Economics of Xiamen University, analyzed that with the rise in comprehensive costs in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, many industries have shifted to the central and western regions. The most advantageous areas in the central and western regions are the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, which are rich in land, labor, and water resources.
In addition, while undertaking industrial transfer, the central and western regions have also gathered a large number of jobs, coupled with the improvement of transportation infrastructure such as high-speed rail, and the lower cost of living than the Yangtze River Delta region, so it has attracted many people to return to their hometowns for employment. Ding Changfa said.
New energy vehicle industry support
The change in population reflects the change in the competitiveness of the city.
Generally speaking, the main factors driving population movement include the industrial structure and the level of economic development, i.e., people move with production and people move to higher places.
If we observe the industrial structure, it can be seen that Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu and Shanghai, the four cities with high permanent population increment, also have commonalities in the industrial layout: the production growth rate of new energy vehicles is relatively high.
Taking Zhengzhou as an example, in 2023, BYD's Zhengzhou plant and the second phase of Zhengzhou SAIC Passenger Vehicle project will be completed and put into operation, driving the explosive growth of Zhengzhou's new energy vehicle production. According to the data, there will be 316,000 new energy vehicles in Zhengzhou in 2023, an increase of 3.5 times.
As an important driving force for population agglomeration, the development of industry has become more and more obvious in the context of the optimization of Zhengzhou's industrial structure. In 2023, Zhengzhou's permanent population will reach 13.008 million, an increase of 180,000 over the previous year, ranking first among cities with a population of 10 million in 2023, and becoming the "first city in northern population increase".
The automobile manufacturing industry has the characteristics of long value chain, high technology content, strong correlation and large driving force, and in the current economic environment, the automobile industry has become an important economic pillar.
Specific to Zhengzhou, there is a more obvious embodiment. In 2023, Zhengzhou's GDP growth rate will reach 7.4%, and its economic growth rate will not only outperform the country, but also lead the nine national central cities, 26 trillion-level cities and the capitals of six central provinces.
Another example is Chongqing, with a permanent population of 31,914,300 at the end of 2023, a decrease of 219,100 from the end of the previous year, ending a 18-year growth trend.
The outflow of people is believed to be an important reason for the decline in Chongqing's population, with 178,800 births and 285,000 deaths, resulting in a natural population increase of minus 106,200. According to the above data, in addition to natural growth, Chongqing will have a net outflow of 112,900 people in 2023.
To this end, Chongqing has recently introduced a series of measures to attract college students to work and settle in Chongqing, including the development of manufacturing and producer services with large employment capacity, providing more than 400,000 jobs every year.
The new energy vehicle industry will be one of them. According to statistics, the output of new energy vehicles in Chongqing in the first quarter was 165,100, an increase of 106.4%. After Guangdong, Shanghai and Shaanxi, it ranks fourth in the country. In fact, driven by Changan and Cialis, the production of new energy vehicles began to climb in September last year and is expected to continue to grow.
Automobile production line Source: Picture Worm Creative
Cities with a population of "quasi-10 million" are also eyeing the new energy vehicle industry.
Hefei is the closest city to a city with a population of 10 million. According to the data, the permanent population of Hefei in 2023 will be 9.853 million, an increase of 219,000 from the previous year. From the perspective of growth mode, Hefei's permanent population is mainly migrated, with a net increase of 201,000 people, accounting for 91.8% of the net increase in permanent population. In addition, in 2023, more than 350,000 new college students will be employed and insured in Hefei, a record high.
This reflects that Hefei's attraction to population and talents is constantly increasing. Behind all these phenomena, it is related to the layout of Hefei's new energy industry.
As early as 2009, Hefei became a pilot city for the demonstration and promotion of new energy vehicles in China. After more than 10 years of development, it has formed an industrial chain system covering vehicles, key components, applications and supporting facilities. At present, it has six new energy vehicle companies such as Volkswagen, BYD and Weilai, as well as more than 500 key supporting enterprises such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and JEE Technology.
To this end, Hefei's new energy vehicles are developing rapidly. Statistics show that in 2023, the output of new energy vehicles in Hefei will reach 746,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times, and the output will rank among the top five cities in the country. At the same time, the perfect industrial chain has also created considerable employment opportunities - according to Zhaopin, Hefei will have 4.7% of the country's new energy industry jobs in 2022, and the job growth rate will be as high as 135.25%.
Now, Hefei's ambition - the 2024 government work report revealed that it will make every effort to build a "new energy vehicle capital" and strive to exceed 1.2 million new energy vehicle production. This also means that driven by the industry, the goal of Hefei's permanent population exceeding 10 million is just around the corner.