New energy vehicles are repeating the drama of digital cameras replacing film cameras
A landmark event has just occurred in China's auto market: the sales of new energy vehicles have surpassed those of fuel vehicles!
According to the data of the Passenger Association, from the 1st to the 14th of this month, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 260,000 (516,000 in the passenger car market), accounting for 50.39%, officially exceeding 50%.
Just as Kodak film was ruthlessly eliminated by digital cameras, the picture quality of film cameras is indeed excellent, but with the development of digital technology, the image quality and functions of digital cameras have far surpassed those of film cameras. Digital cameras can take higher resolution, more vivid, and more realistic photos, and digital cameras can also achieve instant preview, instant modification, instant sharing and other functions, which greatly improves the efficiency and convenience of photography. At the same time, the cost of digital cameras has gradually decreased, and it has gradually become the choice of ordinary consumers. For example, the traditional paper media is gradually subverted by the new Internet media, and fuel vehicles are experiencing the challenge of being replaced by new energy vehicles, and the auto market is undergoing a major reversal.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles finally broke 50%
Sales of new energy vehicles have been running wildly, with a year-on-year increase of 32% from the 1st to the 14th of this month, and a total of 2.032 million retail sales since the beginning of this year, a year-on-year increase of 34%.
In contrast, it is the "collapse of traditional fuel vehicles". In particular, the joint venture brand fuel vehicles, after dominating the market for many years, have experienced a historic collapse. In the past March, the sales of the Honda Accord, which once dominated the list, plummeted by 72.6% year-on-year, the Toyota Camry plummeted by 59.2%, and the Volkswagen Bora, Toyota Corolla, and Honda Fit, which are known as god cars, also fell by more than 50%.
Sales of some joint venture fuel vehicles plummeted in March (according to First Electric)
Breaking through 50% means that the "electric oil in" of the car has broken through an important threshold, which is not only an important threshold for the popularization of new technologies, but also a "psychological threshold" for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.
In the classic book "Diffusion of Innovation", the American scholar Everett Rogers proposed an innovation diffusion model, which divides the process of consumer acceptance of new technologies into five stages.
The first stage is when a very small number of "innovators" take risks, the second stage is for a few "early adopters" to try it out, the third stage is for the "early public" to follow suit, the fourth stage is for the relatively conservative "late public" to finally make a move, and the fifth stage is for the "laggards" who lag behind the mass consumer group.
The penetration rate of 50% means that Chinese consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles is crossing the third stage, and it will attract a large number of eager consumers to enter the market.
When new technologies are recognized by large-scale consumer groups, they will truly enter the "popularization period".
The consumption of new energy vehicles in mainland China is entering a "popularization period"
Of course, not all new technologies will be recognized and accepted by consumers, and many will "collapse in the middle of the road". In Rogers' innovation diffusion model, there is another important threshold called the "chasm", also known as the "valley of death", if it cannot be crossed, the promotion of new technologies can only be abandoned halfway, and cannot be popularized.
This "valley of death" lies between the second and third stages of innovation diffusion, corresponding to about 16% of the consumer population.
New technologies may encounter a "valley of death" in the process of promotion
For new energy vehicles, the "valley of death" will appear when the penetration rate reaches about 16%. Mainland new energy vehicles successfully crossed the "valley of death", and the time node is in August 2021.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles crossed the "valley of death" in August 2021
It is from 2021 that the plug-in hybrid technology of mainland automobiles has undergone a major upgrade, driving the sales of new energy vehicles into a rapid growth channel. Chinese brand plug-in hybrid models have launched a fatal blow to fuel vehicles.
Compared with fuel vehicles, plug-in hybrid models have stronger performance, less fuel consumption, and lower cost of use, forming a "technical suppression" of fuel vehicles, as Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said, "Plug-in hybrid includes all the functions of fuel, plug-in, range extension, and pure electric, and is a veritable 'all-rounder'."
After Chinese brands significantly reduced the price of plug-in hybrid models, the market share of joint venture fuel vehicles was rapidly eroded.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, which means that the mainstream consumer groups have calmly accepted the new plug-in hybrid and electric technologies, and the green travel plan has been widely acclaimed.
The core reason for the dilemma of fuel vehicles is that technological innovation has been stagnant for a long time, and the product strength has been overshadowed. In more than ten years, there has been no substantial technological progress in internal combustion engines and gearboxes, and the industry generally believes that fuel vehicle technology has entered the end of its life cycle, and the relevant R&D resources of major manufacturers are shrinking sharply.
The technological update of fuel vehicles has come to a standstill
Not only that, fuel vehicles are also unable to cope with the wave of intelligence that is sweeping the automotive industry, and electrified vehicles have obvious advantages in linear control, response speed, control accuracy, etc., and are natural intelligent platforms.
Nobel laureate economist Richard Thaler said: "Human beings experience life through change", new energy vehicles continue to show people the update of technology, become faster, more economical, more intelligent, while fuel vehicles are unchanged, people's interest in fuel vehicles is getting weaker and weaker, and the decline of fuel vehicles is inevitable.