On April 19, 2024 local time, in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, voters lined up to vote. Photo/Visual China
Under the shadow of the bribery scandal, on April 19, 2024, India, the world's most populous country, ushered in the largest election in history.
Compared to the 2019 election, the number of registered voters reached a record high of 969 million, more than the population of North America and the European Union combined. According to the Election Commission of India, the number of women registered to vote alone has increased by 40 million.
The 2024 Indian general election will be held in seven phases and will last until June 1. The 44-day "marathon" election was India's longest general election in nearly 70 years.
Although the final results of India's general election will be announced in June, public opinion generally believes that there is almost no suspense that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win the election and Modi will become prime minister for the third time. A poll released in March by Ipsos IndiaBus, an Indian polling agency, showed that Modi's approval rating was as high as 75 percent.
Modi, 73, became India's prime minister in early 2014 and was re-elected in 2019. If he wins, Modi will become the second prime minister to serve three consecutive terms, after founding prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
"Judging from the results of India's domestic election analysis and polls, Modi's BJP has an absolute advantage and has a high chance of being re-elected. Lan Jianxue, director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told Southern Weekend, "However, India's general elections have always been full of uncertainties, and some polls controlled by the BJP may not necessarily reflect the real public opinion." For example, during the 2004 Lok Sabha election, Vajpayee's National League for Democracy (NDA) was generally favored before the election, but after the election, it was unexpectedly overturned, losing its majority in the Lok Sabha Sabha. Considering that the election is long and lasts for more than a month, there may be new variables in the middle. ”
Two major alliances compete
"The 2024 Lok Sabha elections begin today! I call on voters in 102 constituencies in 21 states and federal territories to cast their ballots in record numbers. On April 19, 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on social media calling on voters to vote.
At the same time, 21 states and federal territories, including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, officially started the first phase of elections. In a single day, 166 million Indian voters will cast their ballots at 187,000 polling stations to elect 102 MPs to the lower house of parliament.
According to India's official election process, subsequent elections will be held on April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, and May 25 respectively, until the end of voting on June 1.
The Indian Parliament has a bicameral system consisting of the Council of States (upper house) and the Lok Sabha (lower house). The elections being held are the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament.
The Lok Sabha has 545 seats, 2 of which are appointed by the president and the remaining 543 are elected, with the party or coalition of parties that wins the majority (272 seats) having the right to form a cabinet. The majority leader will become prime minister.
India is the world's most populous country with a total population of over 1.4 billion. Because of the large number of voters and high turnout, India's general election has always been regarded as the most complex and expensive election.
In anticipation of the 2024 general election, India has set up more than one million polling stations and put in 5.5 million electronic voting machines in anticipation of the 2024 general election. A total of 15 million election workers assisted in the election before and after the election. The Election Commission of India called it "the world's largest electoral mobilization, both human and material".
Reuters reported that in order to ensure that the large electorate could participate in the polls, some election workers had to cross mountains and mountains into areas divided by violent insurgency.
On April 18, 2024 local time, in the Alipdur area of West Bengal, India, porters, voting officials and security personnel trekked to a remote village to set up a polling station. Photo/Visual China
It is estimated that the cost of India's 2024 general election will be as high as about 1.2 trillion rupees (about 104.2 billion yuan), which is almost double the cost of the 2019 election.
"The Lok Sabha elections are held separately from the local elections, and each local state has its own election time, which also makes the Indian elections very expensive and energy-consuming. "Modi had proposed merging the state and national elections into one election, but the merger has been decided to be considered after the election. ”
Despite the long and complicated election cycle, analysts believe that the outcome of India's election should not be too surprising.
India has a multi-party system with about 2,660 registered political parties. Although there are as many as 2,400 parties participating in the election, the contest will be mainly between the BJP-led National League for Democracy and the Indian National Congress (Congress)-led Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
The Congress Party was once one of the most influential family parties in India and has long been in power. During the 2014 general election, the Congress Party suffered a crushing defeat and lost power, and BJP leader Narendra Modi became India's prime minister. In 2019, the Congress Party lost again.
In July 2023, the Congress Party led more than 20 political parties to form the "Inclusive Alliance for India's National Development" in an attempt to wrestle with the BJP.
Lan Jianxue believes that although the Congress party wants to stand up to the BJP, the coalition led by it may not really pose a real challenge to the Modi camp.
"The 'Inclusive Alliance for India's National Development' includes 26 political parties, which may seem to be huge, but it is scattered and infighting, and it is difficult to form a joint force. In addition, the Congress Party currently governs only three states in the country, and its influence from the central to the local level is relatively weak. Lan Jianxue said.
Modi's confidence
At the moment, India's general election has just begun, but Modi seems to be ready for a "brace".
Two months before the general election, Modi made a bold statement in his parliamentary speech that the BJP would win 370 Lok Sabha seats in the general election. If the number of seats of allies is added, the BJP-led National League for Democracy is expected to win at least 400 seats.
"If the BJP does manage to win 370 seats for its much-hyped single-party party, it will mean that it has crossed the two-thirds threshold required for constitutional amendment, and will remove the obstacles to Modi's so-called 'Four Ones' political vision (one nation-state, one election, one language, one religion)." Lan Jianxue analyzed.
However, Lan Jianxue admits that it is not easy for Modi to achieve an overwhelming advantage.
First, the BJP is very popular in the "Hindi-speaking heartlands" of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, but India's more developed and wealthy southern states have long been very dissatisfied with the "supremacy of Hinduism" and the excessive concentration of state power resources in northern India. Whether the BJP and its NDA coalition can win more than 400 votes will depend on how voters in southern India vote at that time, and there are still many variables.
Second, the BJP is not a monolith, and there are many contradictions between the BJP's ideology, the religious faction led by the National Volunteer Service Corps (RSS), and the consortium that finances the campaign.
Overall, however, these variables may not shake the electoral advantage of the Modi camp. Lan Jianxue said.
On the other hand, within the BJP, it appears to be full of ambition. On March 18, 2024, the day after the Lok Sabha election schedule was announced, Modi couldn't wait to convene a cabinet meeting to draw up a 100-day plan and a five-year roadmap for the new government after the election.
"This is Modi's electoral strategy, which on the one hand shows his ambition, and on the other hand, it can also use it to overpower the opposition parties and win the support of more voters. Dai Yonghong, dean of the Institute of Regional and International Communication at Shenzhen University, told Southern Weekend.
On April 12, 2024 local time, in Dausa, India, before the Indian general election, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made gestures during a roadshow. Photo/Visual China
But beyond the electoral strategy, Modi, who wields the power in power, has multiple advantages.
When Modi was first elected in 2014, India's GDP totaled $2.04 trillion, ranking 10th in the world. Ten years into Modi's rule, India has become the world's fifth-largest economy, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.98 percent.
"Modi's first two terms have achieved political stability and rapid economic growth at home, and he has gained international prestige through active multilateral cooperation in diplomacy. Especially after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, India has been torn between the United States, the West and Russia, and its international status and influence have been further demonstrated. All this is conducive to the BJP remaining in power. Dai Yonghong analyzed.
"Opinion polls show that Indians are generally satisfied with the economic and diplomatic achievements of the Modi government over the past decade. Lan Jianxue further pointed out, "In addition to the 'brilliant' political performance, Modi's BJP's ruling resources and organizational mobilization capabilities are also important reasons why it is generally optimistic." ”
"Modi, who has been in power for 10 consecutive years, can make full use of his governing resources to maximize the support of Indian voters through the distribution of benefits and preferential policies. In addition, the BJP itself has about 180 million members, and its parent organization, the National Volunteer Corps, is located in all parts of India. Lan Jianxue explained.
Internal and external challenges
On April 14, 2024, five days before India's general election, the BJP unveiled its campaign manifesto titled "Modi's Pledge" at its headquarters in New Delhi.
Modi devotes a lot of space to recounting the achievements of the past decade in power, and describes to the Indian people a vision for the future of India - "India will become the world's third largest economy" and "India will become a global manufacturing hub by 2030". He promised that the implementation of the declaration would be launched immediately after the election results were announced, with a focus on strengthening national security, socio-economic development and digital infrastructure.
Modi and his BJP have been in power for a decade since becoming prime minister in 2014. During this period, India's economy has surpassed Russia, the United Kingdom, and France, and has successfully become the fifth largest economy. At a time when global economic growth is slowing, India's economy has taken off against the trend.
Data released by India's Department of Statistics showed that the country's GDP grew by 8.4% year-on-year in 2023, well above market expectations of 6.6%. "This growth rate shows the strength and potential of India's economy. Modi said excitedly.
In Dai Yonghong's view, Modi's achievements in power are inseparable from the good foundation laid by the Congress party ten years ago. Long before Modi became prime minister, India's economy grew at an average annual rate of 7.74 per cent under the leadership of the United Alliance for Progress of India, led by the Congress Party. ”
However, the booming economic data can hardly hide the hidden dangers of India's development.
"There is a gap between Modi's propaganda of 'bright economic data' and people's sense of gain. "On the surface, India's economy continues to maintain rapid growth, but many problems such as high unemployment, inflation, high debt, and farmers' livelihoods have also been plaguing India. ”
In 2023, a poll conducted by India's Center for the Study of Developing Societies showed that nearly 42% of Indians believe that their economic situation has not changed, and 22% believe that it has worsened. In addition, about 29 per cent of respondents said unemployment is currently the biggest challenge facing India, followed by poverty and rising prices.
"With India providing jobs for nearly 12 million new workers every year, we have to create new jobs on a massive scale, which is a serious challenge. Former Indian Ambassador to China Ashok Kant said in an exclusive interview with Southern Weekend.
In fact, as early as 2014, when Modi came to power, he proposed the "Make in India" plan, trying to create more jobs while building a manufacturing powerhouse. However, from 2015 to 2022, the share of manufacturing in India's GDP has fallen from 16% to 13%.
"India's poor infrastructure and level of industrialization are a significant obstacle to 'Make in India'. Even if the United States and the West transfer the industrial and supply chains to India, it is still a question whether India can undertake it. Dai Yonghong pointed out.
At the social level, with the expansion of Hindu nationalism, the religious contradictions in India are worsening. Time magazine pointed out that since Modi was elected prime minister, intimidation against Muslims in India has become more common.
At the same time, the contradictions between the Indian government and the Sikhs have shown a spillover effect, and the international situation is getting bigger and bigger.
Sikhism is the fifth-largest religion in the world, accounting for about 2% of India's total population. After the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, radical Sikhs launched the "Khalistan Movement" in an attempt to establish a sovereign Sikh state called "Khalistan" in the Punjab region of India to achieve a high degree of autonomy.
But under the crackdown of the Indian government, the space for Sikh activities has been continuously squeezed. The "Khalistan movement" has fallen to a low ebb in India, but it has re-emerged overseas in the United States, Canada and Australia, with referendums and protests.
Lan Jianxue believes that the internationalization of the "Khalistan Movement" is essentially the embodiment of the spread of ethnic contradictions in India overseas.
In September 2023, Sikh leader Nijjar was shot dead in Canada, which accused the assassination of being linked to Indian government agents. A diplomatic dispute ensued between India and Canada, with each side expelling senior diplomats and halting trade talks.
Two months later, federal prosecutors in New York City indicted an Indian official as the mastermind in an attempted assassination of a Sikh leader in the United States. According to the analysis of a number of foreign media, this may affect the efforts of the US government and even its allies to win over India.
"Modi's India is internationally rivaled and is highly sought after by Russia, the United States and Europe. It is precisely because of this that India has dared to blindly turn its extreme practices against the Sikhs at home to overseas. Dai Yonghong added, "If India is in this state of self-confidence for a long time, it is likely to face a situation of 'arrogant soldiers will lose'." ”
Lan Jianxue pointed out that the 2024 Lok Sabha election in India is by no means a routine general election in the ordinary sense, "to a certain extent, this election can reflect the development direction of India's social ideology, the value orientation and overall tone of its domestic and foreign policies in the next 5-10 years, and it is also related to whether India, the world's most populous country, can continue to maintain stability and handle its relations with all countries in the world, especially its neighbors." ”
Southern Weekly reporter Wang Hang
Editor-in-charge: Yao Yijiang