With Israel, and possibly the United States, retaliating against Iran on a symbolic small scale with drones, the current round of the Iran-Israel conflict triggered by Israeli airstrikes on the Iranian embassy in Syria has finally come to an end. Looking back now, the intensity of the two countries' actions is not at the same level at all, and some analysts believe that after the United States decided not to end the game, Israel will still be cowardly after all. But the meaning behind this incident is far more complex than we imagined.
Iranian President Raisi
Since the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has been a thorn in the side of the United States. Israel, as the executor of the United States in maintaining hegemony in the Middle East, is also hostile to Iran. The U.S. approach to Iran, mainly economic sanctions, once made it impossible for Iran to guarantee even the most basic supplies of food and medicine.
Israel, on the other hand, has used intelligence infiltration and "shadow warfare" to sabotage Iran's internal affairs. In response, Iran has formed a "Shiite Arc" to prop up militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and elsewhere as regional proxies. Over the past few decades, the two sides have frequently made moves, but in general, Iran is still the passive side of the attack and has always maintained "strategic patience".
Iranian President Raisi
That is to say, no matter how much pressure the United States exerts and how Israel provokes, Iran will not personally end up, but will only let proxies respond by attacking US military bases, Israeli intelligence facilities, etc. This is a realistic decision made by Iran based on its lack of hard power and the fact that the pro-American faction in the country still has a certain influence. In particular, with regard to the policy of attacking Israel itself, Iran has long pursued a policy of "anti-Israel" and "erasing Israel from the face of the earth" if it has nothing to do.
However, the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict and its continuous spillover effects have changed many of the original unspoken rules in the Middle East. For example, "the theory that Israel is invincible" and "the theory that if there is something wrong with Israel, there is something wrong with the United States" have all been torn off in this round of conflict. Since the Israeli army is such a dish, and the United States is biting to death and refusing to end, Iran, which has suffered bitterly for decades, has nothing to hesitate.
The fire of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has burned on Iran
The anger of the Iranians eventually turned into more than 100 missiles flying towards the Israeli mainland, and the reaction of the United States and Israel proved that Iran was right. As a result, the Iranian side has proposed a new set of "deterrence theory", that is, replacing "strategic endurance" with a multi-layered defense theory.
In the future, Iran will use its large militia and regional proxies as an outer defense system, responding to different degrees of adversaries according to the impact of different levels of defense systems, and when the territory representing Iran's core interests is attacked, Iran will also launch a direct counterattack to maintain the credibility of its own deterrent.
Compared with the previous one, Iran's new deterrence doctrine is a big step forward, and its influence in the region will also be greatly enhanced. Of course, it is not without reason that Iran has made such a change, for example, for a long time in the past, Iran did not have perfect long-range strike means, and now it has. In the past, they had a bad relationship with Saudi Arabia, but now they are getting better. These are all favorable conditions for Iran to take this step.
The risk of war in the Middle East has expanded
In other words, when Iran has these conditions, it should be a matter of course for them to upgrade their deterrence mechanism, and at this time, Israel, which is a foreign power, is running to make trouble, which is precisely to provide such an excellent opportunity for Iran. However, Israel, which has been deflated in the face of Iran, still does not rule out continuing to take risks in the future, and the potential risk of conflict in the Middle East is still rising, which will also bring new challenges to Iran in the future.