Gu Zhenglong: What is ISIS's idea for Tajikistanis?

On March 22, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISIS) Khorasan group carried out a terrorist operation in the halls of the city of Krukos near Moscow, killing nearly 150 civilians and injuring hundreds, in one of the worst terrorist attacks to date. Reuters quoted sources as saying that the militants suspected of terrorist attacks captured by Russia were holding Tajik passports, and the Islamic State used the terrorist attacks to try to provoke Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in Central Asia, aiming to promote the development of extremist and terrorist ideologies. One wonders what motivates Tajiks to join ISIS Khorasan and why is ISIS so keen to recruit Tajiks into the group?

Multiple causes

An April 4 analysis published on the website of the UAE's Interregional Assessments pointed out that ISIS's growing interest in recruiting Tajiks into terrorist groups is because:

1. Specifically targeting Tajikistanis, the Islamic State has a powerful and effective propaganda tool with a clear function, which motivates and incites anti-Taliban forces, the remnants of the Afghan army separatists, and other Tajiks with extremist tendencies to actively join the Islamic State organization. ISIL has also used the publication of a large number of Tajik propaganda and videos to encourage citizens of Tajikistan to join terrorist organizations and to use their legitimate religious identity to engage in terrorist activities.

2. Extremist and terrorist activities occur frequently in Tajikistan. According to studies by the French Centre for Intelligence Studies and the Central Asia Observation Centre, Tajikistan has become a breeding ground for terrorist activities and the spread of extremist ideas at home and abroad. For more than a decade, Tajikistan has been facing the problem of the polarization of certain populations, both within and outside the country. Secondly, at the peak of ISIS activity, the participation rate of citizens of Tajikistan increased significantly. The International Center for Crisis Studies estimates that between 2,000 and 4,000 citizens from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan joined the Islamic State terrorist group in 2017. Tajiks who have returned to their homeland from Iraq and Syria have become the elite fighters and backbone of ISIS, playing a key role in recruiting new members for ISIS's Khorasan group.

3. Reorganize ISIS's team in Asia. Following the killing of ISIS's key leader Abiy Hassan al-Hashemi Kulshi in October 2022, ISIS began implementing a new strategy to restructure and restructure the organization's management and administrative offices. There are reports of the merger of the Caucasian branch with the Khorasan branch into one office. With this new structure, the leader of the new structure, Shahab al-Muhajr, is focused on rebuilding the ISIS ranks, with one of the tasks being to expand the "recruitable" group, the core of which is to recruit citizens of Tajikistan.

4. Tajikistan's identity is important to ISIS leaders. In ISIS leadership, having Tajiks can play an important role in attracting more Tajiks to ISIS. Shahab, the leader of the Islamic State Khorasan group, is an Afghan citizen of Tajik origin, which may explain the importance he attaches to the recruitment of Tajik fighters.

5. The economic influence of citizens of Tajikistan. Some Westerners see Shahab as the de facto controller of the Islamic State's finances in Khorasan and his enormous economic lure, and his commitment to building a regional network of fighting cells that could help carry out international terrorist attacks. Russian media reported that one of the participants was a Tajik. In the latest attack, he was offered a reward of 500,000 rubles (about $5,000) for participating in the terrorist attack in Moscow.

6. There are a large number of ethnic Tajik citizens in Afghanistan. It is estimated that the Islamic State Khorasan group has about 2,000 to 6,000 fighters, most of whom are Tajikistanis. In Afghanistan, Khorasan has exploited Tajik, Uzbek and Kyrgyz grievances against the Taliban to indoctrinate ISIS terrorism.

7. ISIS benefits from tensions between the Taliban and Tajikistanis. After the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan and reached some agreements with the United States, the Taliban leadership had strained relations with Tajik members within the leadership, and some Tajik members within the Taliban leadership were detained in late 2023 and early 2024 on charges of links to the Islamic State Khorasan group.

8. The policy formulated by the Tajik authorities has been counterproductive. Over the past few years, part of ISIS's propaganda has focused on criticizing the policies of Tajikistan's ruling authorities and using them to create a kind of anti-government rally. To that end, the Government of Tajikistan had adopted policies and certain controls such as the circumcision of men, and the provision for women's clothing that "women and girls are not allowed to wear black, no clothes of an Islamic nature, headscarves, etc.".

Possible impacts

There are signs that the rate of radicalization among citizens of Tajikistan in the Khorasan region of Afghanistan is rising, which will have a number of consequences, including at the national level, with an impact on the scale and severity of possible future terrorist attacks:

1. The growth of the power of the Islamic State terrorist group. The growth rate of Tajik citizens joining the Islamic State Khorasan group has a huge impact on the Islamic State, which is conducive to the expansion and development of the Islamic State in Central and South Asian countries, and provides a solid social foundation. In addition, it has more experienced combatants who are capable of carrying out high-quality terrorist operations.

2. The spread of extremist and terrorist ideologies in South and Central Asia. The increasing pace at which citizens of Tajikistan join the Islamic State Khorasan group has made it possible for the Islamic State to carry out more intensive propaganda activities and establish social norms that identify with and solidarity with its extremist rhetoric. The Tajik language as a media tool has largely contributed to the growth in the spread of extremist rhetoric and ideas in South and Central Asia.

3. The possibility of establishing a new ISIS branch. The consequences of the narrative and propaganda of Tajik citizens joining ISIS Khorasan are not limited to the Khorasan region, but even extend to other, more serious consequences, such as spurring ISIS to establish new branches in many neighboring countries where some ethnic Tajiks are represented.

4. The likelihood of impactful terrorist attacks increases. It cannot be ignored that ISIS's ability to continue to attract Tajiks will provide the group with more opportunities to carry out large-scale and influential terrorist attacks, as was the case with the recent Moscow attacks. The group may also carry out large-scale attacks in Western countries, including terrorist acts carried out by some Tajik lone wolf groups in some countries. These fears were confirmed by the German authorities on July 7 last year when they announced the arrest of seven Tajiks belonging to the Islamic State.

5. Increased pressure on the Tajik government. The increase in the number of Tajiks joining the Islamic State is likely to put more pressure on the regime in Tajikistan, especially from neighboring countries and even Western countries. In this regard, after the recent attacks on Moscow, Russia is likely to put pressure on Dushanbe in order to intensify the fight against terrorist activities and eliminate the root causes of extremism.

Signs of danger

Finally, the increasing pace of citizens of Tajikistan joining ISIS is a dangerous sign that portends many consequences. Both the level of danger of the ISIS group's capabilities and the growing threat of terrorism in the Asian region are negative, and the threat could extend to the wider international community.