China's real estate is heading for an unknowable future, and after several years of hard work, is the crisis over?
A recent incident shook the entire real estate circle, and it turned out that the United States could do so without revealing a trace of China's real estate. There are some things that we can't confirm, so please judge them together.
In order to restore the facts, we try to state these things objectively and reduce subjective judgments, and I hope that when you look at them, you will think more and think about the relationship behind them, otherwise you may not understand.
Not long ago, Wanda Group announced that it had obtained a new investment of 60 billion yuan, for which Wanda paid 60% of the equity of Dalian Xinda League, the main company of its commercial management sector.
The company that led the investment is called PAG Investment, and everyone remembers this company because the subsequent stories are based on it.
PAG Investments will also be joined by CITIC Capital, Ares Management, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Mubadala Investment Company.
The public information of these companies is easy to find, so we will not introduce them, and the focus is not on them.
A few days ago, we also wrote an article saying that PAG Investment pulled the central enterprise CITIC Capital to invest in Wanda, maybe because they didn't want to cause trouble, but now it seems that we still want to be simple.
Taking advantage of the predicament of Wanda Group, it took over its core asset Wanda Commercial Management, which is a very classic bottom-buying.
If you don't believe it, there has been another bottom-buying incident in the real estate industry recently, the protagonist is a local real estate company, which includes both Chinese-funded consortia and US dollar bonds, and the receiver is likely to be PAG Investment.
This local real estate company is called Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co., Ltd., and its controlling shareholder is called Zhongnan Urban Construction.
Note that although the names look similar, they are not state-owned enterprises, but in the past two years, the real estate industry has been bailed out, and state-owned enterprises have participated in it, and the specific degree of participation is unknown.
At present, the share price of Zhongnan Construction has fallen from more than 9 yuan in 2020 to less than 1 yuan, the market value has fallen from more than 30 billion yuan to more than 3 billion yuan, and the revenue will be 78.6 billion yuan in 2020, and it will only be 31.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023.
Therefore, Zhongnan Construction has almost fallen to the floor, and it is a good time to buy the bottom.
Since last year, Zhongnan Construction has been mired in a debt vortex, and a series of things have happened.
First of all, at present, all four existing US dollar bonds of Zhongnan Construction have defaulted, with a balance of 464.6 million US dollars.
Mind you, it's dollar debt again. Among the domestic thunderstorm real estate companies, there are the shadow of dollar bonds.
The second thing, according to the announcement of Zhongnan Construction, 87,602,900 shares held by Zhongnan Urban Construction will be liquidated in 2023.
Among them, 354,700 shares were liquidated by Caida Securities, 30.22 million shares were liquidated by China Post Securities, 527,200 shares were liquidated by Changjiang Securities, and 1,118,700 shares were liquidated by Guolian Securities.
54.15 million shares were liquidated by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Nantong Branch, 7.25 million shares were liquidated by Huaxia Bank Nantong Branch, and 13.9 million shares were liquidated by National Trust.
It can be seen that Zhongnan Construction has been carved up by a domestic consortium.
At this time, it is the best time to buy the construction of Zhongnan.
Therefore, after copying Wanda Commercial Management, PAG Investment has set its sights on Zhongnan Construction.
On April 20, Zhongnan Urban Construction, the controlling shareholder of Zhongnan Construction, negotiated with PAG Investment and Jiangsu Asset Management on debt resolution, equity transactions and other cooperation matters.
The results of the negotiations have not yet been announced. Whether PAG Investment will take over the construction of Zhongnan has not yet been determined.
What kind of institution is PAG, and why does it have such strength?
According to the data, real estate is one of the three major business sectors of PAG's investment, and it has not been sweeping goods in China's real estate industry for a day or two, and everyone can easily find these information.
On the surface, PAG Investments is a Chinese controlled investment company. In fact, the background of its head Shan Weijian is quite mysterious, and his resume is also very brilliant.
Shan Weijian has long-term experience in studying in the United States and working for American consortia, including JP Morgan, Newbridge Capital, Texas Pacific and other well-known capital groups in the United States.
Not long ago, when PAG invested in Wanda Commercial Management, someone once found out that Shan Weijian was still a student of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Does Shan Weijian's PAG have a U.S.-funded background? Due to the confidential nature of private equity investment, we do not know.
However, with his experience and connections, it is normal for PAG to raise funds from American consortia or private individuals.
Why does PAG dare to buy the bottom of China's real estate? According to the public information we have found, Shan Weijian has a different view of China's real estate than most people.
At the end of March this year, he pointed out in an article that China's housing market does not have a serious oversupply problem, but it has not yet turned around.
He called on the relevant parties to consider a comprehensive relaxation of restrictions as soon as possible and restore the function of market self-regulation.
At present, due to the industry adjustment cycle, many real estate companies in China are in a weak trough state, and it is indeed the best time to buy the bottom.
At the same time, despite the many real estate bailouts we have taken, we have not been able to save so many developers, and it may be difficult to prevent capital forces with backgrounds like PAG from entering the real estate industry.
However, it should be very necessary to strengthen the review mechanism for real estate equity investment.