Recently, the 2024 private education job fair for college graduates in Yunnan Province with the theme of "Spring Recruitment Starts a New Journey and Employment Wins the Future" was held at the Haiyuan Campus of Kunming City University. More than 300 family units from various industries participated in the job fair, providing nearly 10,000 jobs. The picture shows the scene of the job fair. Xinhua
Reporter of China Development and Reform News | Jing Wenna
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics for the first quarter recently, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5.2 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. In March, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and the same month last year.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in an interview with the media a few days ago that he is relatively optimistic about the mainland's job market, and that there is no problem with the mainland's total employment at present, and the unemployment rate is declining. At the same time, the mainland's economy is still growing, the "cake" is still getting bigger, the industry is upgrading, and the development of the service industry is accelerating, which will bring more jobs. However, at the same time, he also stressed that we should be vigilant against the problem of structural contradictions in employment.
In view of the employment situation in the first quarter, at the "Employment Situation Analysis Meeting for the First Quarter of 2024" jointly organized by the Employment Promotion Professional Committee of the Labor Economics Association, the experts and scholars attending the meeting conducted in-depth analysis and discussion on the current economic and employment situation, government debt space, private economic development and employment promotion.
The overall economic and employment situation is improving, but the foundation needs to be consolidated
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the mainland's GDP increased by 5.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate accelerated by 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, exceeding the consensus expectation of the market. Experts at the meeting gave a cautiously optimistic interpretation of this, believing that the results of stable growth policies such as large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods will gradually appear, and the mainland economy as a whole will show a stable and positive momentum.
The panelists were confident in the economic performance for the full year. Despite structural and long-term challenges such as a complex external environment and a downturn in real estate, insufficient demand is the main problem facing the mainland economy at present and for a long time to come. Against this backdrop, as long as we make good use of fiscal and monetary policies and put various structural and targeted policies in place, we have a greater chance of achieving economic growth of more than 5%. According to expert estimates, at present, the total explicit and implicit government debt of the mainland is slightly higher than the scale of GDP, and on the whole it is still in a relatively reasonable range, and there are conditions to further expand the scale of active fiscal policy. Of course, there are significant differences in debt status and growth rates in different regions, with some provinces and cities approaching or reaching the debt ceiling. Experts at the meeting suggested that the central government should strengthen the supervision of local government debt, ensure that debt growth matches local economic growth, urge localities with excessive debt burdens to optimize the expenditure structure and reduce debt ratios, and encourage localities with low debt burdens to appropriately increase transfer payments to households.
Full employment is inextricably linked to economic growth. While seeing the positive changes in the job market, the experts attending the meeting believed that in order to control the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas at a low level, the employment of key groups, especially college graduates, should not be neglected. In March, the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16 to 24 excluding school students was 15.3 percent, which was basically the same as that in February this year, but increased by 0.4 percentage points from December last year, and the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 25 to 29 excluding school students was 7.2 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and the third consecutive month of increase since the release of the indicator.
The operating pressure of private enterprises affects the creativity of posts
Experts at the meeting stressed that the development of the private economy is crucial to achieving the goals of "stable growth" and "stable employment". According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of 2022, 295 million people were employed by private enterprises and individual towns, a cumulative increase of 240 million people, and the proportion of total urban employment increased from 20% to 60%. Not only that, but the private economy also has a stronger ability to create jobs, and it is the economic sector with the lowest job cost and the highest efficiency. According to the estimation of the research group of the Employment Promotion Committee of the Labor Economics Society, 3.4 new jobs will be created for each new small and micro enterprise, and for each new job created, large non-state-owned enterprises need to invest 500,000 yuan to 700,000 yuan, while small and micro enterprises only need to invest less than 50,000 yuan.
Experts at the meeting said that at present, the employment pressure mainly lies in the difficulty and vitality of private enterprises, and the decline in job creation ability. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of large manufacturing enterprises was 51.1%, not lower than the critical line for 10 consecutive months, and although the small manufacturing industry ended an 11-month contraction, the PMI was 50.3%, only slightly higher than the boom and bust line. Wang Yang, a researcher at the Institute of Social Development of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that the current demand for employment in small and medium-sized enterprises is sluggish, and the employment pressure of young people, especially college graduates, is greater. Judging from the latest PMI, although the market activity of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased, the employment index is still at a low level. In March, the employment index of small manufacturing enterprises was only 47.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points, and 0.3 percentage points lower than the overall level of the manufacturing industry.
At present, private enterprises are still facing many difficulties such as meager profits, tight funds, lack of information, and insufficient demand. According to the latest data released by the China Association of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, in the first quarter, the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises was 89.3, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, but it was still significantly lower than the critical value of prosperity. Experts at the meeting suggested that the market access threshold should be effectively lowered, unreasonable bidding restrictions should be removed, investment support should be strengthened, the investment and financing system should be improved, and the transformation and upgrading of enterprises should be promoted, while providing precise services to expand the ability of enterprises to absorb employment.
Effectively improve the business environment of private enterprises and promote the development of new quality productivity
The private economy is the most dynamic part of the market economy, because of its special advantages such as the consciousness of innovation and development, the advantages of industrial innovation, and the spirit of entrepreneurship, it has played an important role in the process of liberating and developing the productive forces since the reform and opening up, and will certainly undertake the important task of cultivating the basic carrier of new quality productive forces after entering the new stage of development. Experts said that to a large extent, only when the private economy has been fully developed can the new quality productive forces be truly and effectively developed.
Ma Tao, chairman of the board of directors of Cotton Field Group, focused on the role of new quality productivity in promoting the development of private economy, and believed that private enterprises should establish and develop new quality productivity in a timely manner, and need to consider many factors such as laws, policies and social resources in the development process.
Private enterprises are not only active participants in the market economy, but also the most important source and channel of innovation and employment. The experts at the meeting agreed that to improve the business environment of private enterprises and promote the development of new productive forces, it is necessary to establish the important position of the private economy in the national economy. It is necessary to conscientiously protect the legitimate rights and interests of private entrepreneurs. In the decision-making process of mixed-ownership enterprises, the principle of equal shares and equal rights should be adhered to, and the rights and interests of non-state-owned shareholders should not be harmed. Attach importance to the central role of public services in shaping a good business environment, and provide enterprises with necessary social resources and infrastructure support. In the process of formulating economic and social policies, it is necessary to conscientiously avoid discrimination against private enterprises in market access, bidding, capital, resources, taxation, and so on, so as to ensure fair and orderly market competition.
Fang Ming, director of the Global Financial Strategy Laboratory of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that to improve the business environment of private enterprises, it is necessary to effectively promote the transformation of government functions. As the mainland economy enters a stage of high-quality development, it is necessary to gradually transform from an investment-oriented entrepreneurial entrepreneur-oriented government to a service-oriented government, and reduce the government's direct participation in market activities.