Focusing on the present, the energy structure dominated by traditional fossil energy and new energy as the target is accelerating the change. In the future, how and where will the energy transition turn? What changes will it bring to the energy market? This reporter recently interviewed experts in the petroleum and chemical industry to hear what they have to say.
Energy structure "trade-off"
The recently released Blue Book on the Development of China's Petroleum Circulation Industry (2023-2024) (hereinafter referred to as the "Blue Book") counts the proportion of global energy consumption in 2023, and the proportion of traditional fossil energy consumption fell below 80% for the first time.
In the process of energy transition, must the relationship between traditional energy and new energy be "one trade-off"?
In this regard, Dong Xiucheng, director of the Expert Committee of the China Petroleum Circulation Association and professor of the University of International Business and Economics, replied: "According to the development situation at home and abroad, the answer is yes. ”
The analysis of the global energy development situation and prices in the "Blue Book" also supports Dong Xiucheng's view: in 2023, the global energy system is developing in a cleaner and low-carbon direction. In particular, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change proposed that the energy transition should be separated from fossil fuels, which will have a certain impact on energy prices. Today, the continuous development and cost reduction of global renewable energy technologies and their increasing competitiveness in the energy market have put pressure on traditional energy prices and led to an overall decline in global energy prices, with oil prices falling by nearly 20% and natural gas and coal prices falling by more than 50%.
So, what is the impact of new energy on traditional energy?
"In 2023, the substitution of refined oil by new energy vehicles will be about 17 million tons, and it is expected to reach about 20 million tons this year. Wang Lining, director of the Oil Market Research Institute of the China National Petroleum Group Economic and Technical Research Institute, believes that the impact of new energy on traditional energy has appeared, and it is likely to accelerate the peak of traditional energy consumption. According to the analysis of market supply and demand, the peak of gasoline consumption may be reached earlier this year, the peak of total refined oil consumption is expected to be around 2025, and the peak of oil consumption is expected to be around 2030.
"The emergence of new energy will not only affect the consumption of traditional energy, but also affect the product structure of the energy industry. Wang Lining pointed out that the impact on gasoline consumption mainly comes from new energy vehicles, different from coal, gasoline consumption may be reached after the peak will be skipped over the plateau period and soon fall. Natural gas has the biggest impact on diesel consumption, and the current substitution scale has been relatively stable, and diesel consumption will decline more slowly than gasoline. In addition, with the continuous growth of new energy consumption, it will also affect the regional energy consumption structure. Gasoline consumption will decline rapidly in areas with high new energy penetration in the south, south China, and east China, while gasoline consumption will remain for a period of time or decline slowly in areas with low penetration rates such as northeast and northwest.
The impact of new energy on traditional energy has also left traces in the development process of gas stations. In 2023, the apparent consumption of refined oil products in mainland China will increase year-on-year, but the total number of gas stations in the country will decrease year-on-year.
In this regard, the "Blue Book" believes that the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation modes puts forward new requirements for the infrastructure construction and operation and management of gas stations, and the traditional business model of gas stations will not be able to meet the new needs of customers. In the future, gas stations will extend to multiple energy services such as refueling, gas, charging, and hydrogen refueling, and extend from energy supply to multiple consumption scenarios such as shopping and catering, providing one-stop comprehensive services such as energy supply, basic services, and auxiliary services.
"Integrated gas stations will become more and more popular in the market. Dong Xiucheng believes that "the future of gas stations is not pessimistic, because there are too many opportunities. ”
The key to the transition to traditional energy lies in refining
How can traditional energy find the second growth curve in the process of energy transition? A number of industry experts have unanimously proposed that the transformation of the energy structure should be promoted scientifically and rationally.
Dong Xiucheng proposed that to promote the transformation of traditional energy, we should think from the perspective of conducive to the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. For refining and chemical enterprises, the core issue of transformation is to reduce carbon emissions on the basis of quality and quantity. The top priority of the traditional energy industry and enterprises is to balance the relationship between traditional energy and new energy: first, we must deeply understand the significance of energy transition; Second, we must realize that oil and gas are only a part of energy, and to build a new energy system, we must think from a more macro perspective, and we cannot talk about oil and gas.
Dong Xiucheng stressed that the transformation of oil and gas should be viewed separately. The transportation industry is the main consumer of refined oil, and it is naturally the key to the success of the transformation of refined oil. From the perspective of controlling carbon emission intensity and carbon emissions, the transformation of refined oil products is under great pressure and time-consuming. In contrast, natural gas, as a transition energy source, is relatively less stressful. However, it is worth noting that there is no clear positioning of natural gas in the energy product structure.
It is understood that in 2023, the average operating rate of refineries in China will be 72.4%, an increase of 4.6% from 2022 and 16.5% lower than the global average; The operating rate of the main refinery was 77.9%, an increase of 3.6% from 2022; The operating rate of independent refineries was 64.0%, an increase of 6.5% from 2022.
"Compared to some other countries, the operating rate of refineries on the mainland is not high. For refineries, the most important issue to think about at present is how to truly release production capacity to the market. Wang Nengquan, a member of the expert committee of the China Petroleum Circulation Association and former chief economist of Sinochem Energy, suggested that the domestic refined oil market can be more market-oriented by regulating export policies, so as to improve the operating efficiency of the refined oil industry.
Sun Renjin, secretary general of the expert committee of the China Petroleum Circulation Association and professor of China University of Petroleum (Beijing), added that the demand for refined oil market will further recover this year, and the supervision of the oil and gas industry will continue to be strengthened, so as to standardize the operation order of the industry and provide guarantee for the long-term healthy and stable operation of the industry.
The new energy system tends to be diversified
The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" clearly mentions that by 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%, and by 2060, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80%. It can be seen that the continuous development and growth of the new energy system is a trend.
"Talking about a new energy system without a new power system is empty talk. Dong Xiucheng said frankly that the core of building a new energy system is clean power supply. According to the current development situation and policy guidelines, it can be determined that the main body of the new power system is renewable energy generation, such as wind, solar, hydrogen energy, and a small amount of nuclear power. In recent years, the development momentum of new energy has been rapid, but it is facing shortcomings such as intermittent and volatility. Next, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain should work together to make new breakthroughs in energy storage technology and improve the problem of unstable power supply in the new power system.
Sun Renjin proposed that the new energy system can be diversified. There are already semi-solid-state battery vehicles in mass production on the market, and methanol and ammonia energy deployed by many companies are also part of the new energy system. In the future, the pace of replacing traditional energy with new energy will be faster and faster.
Yan Jiantao, chief economist of Jiecheng Energy, is optimistic about biodiesel. Previously, biodiesel was considered a supplement to energy products, but now more and more countries have begun to pay attention to biodiesel, such as ExxonMobil, Shell and other internationally renowned chemical companies have included it in key development plans. The mainland has also recently launched pilot projects in Shandong, Beijing and other places. In the future, biodiesel has a lot of room for development in terms of consumption, production, and export.
For some countries in the world to propose the development of synthetic fuel vehicles instead of electric vehicles, Dong Xiucheng pointed out that China's energy transition is irreversible, and relevant enterprises should strengthen their belief in the development of new energy. Whether it is synthetic fuels or electricity, the ultimate goal is to achieve green and low-carbon, but the development foundation of each country is different. (Liu Bingyi)